First, let's look at the horror show that was last year's offense. For reference, there are 129 teams:
115th in 3rd down conversion %
115th in team passing efficiency
113th in pass completion %
110th in sacks allowed
110th in passing offense
105th in total offense
105th in first down offense
91st in scoring offense
85th in turnovers lost
68th in red zones offense
49th in rushing offense
20th in time of possession
Please allow yourself a few moments to shake those statistics off. They're horrible.
Now that you've had some time to recover, what are your expectations for Michigan's offense this season? Some things to keep in mind:
*Shea Patterson threw for more yards and twice as many TDs as Michigan QB's did last season in just half a season. He was also 10 percentage points higher in his completion percentage than Michigan's quarterbacks.
*Michigan's offensive line should be better, though probably still not great. Despite optimism about Runyan, he's still a question mark. And at right tackle your have a 5th year player in JBB who was atrocious in pass protection but pretty good as a run blocker. And the young guys still can't beat him out. So RT is still a question mark. I'm optimistic Patterson will help hide some OL problems.
*Michigan had a slightly above average running game last year. Part of that is probably because that's all they were capable of doing. But I'll submit that while pass blocking continued to be atrocious, run blocking improved as the season progressed - especially as our younger players got more experience. Assuming the right side of the line is Ruiz, Onwenu and JBB, that's a pretty good set of run blockers with potential to be really good.
*Michigan's WR corps should be improved this year, and not just because they have a capable QB throwing to them. The Black loss hurts, but he really didn't play last year either. You have a lot of talent returning, and that talent has supposedly blossomed (Gentry, DPJ and Collins in particular).
*People will argue Michigan's offensive staff and play calling will be more cohesive and defined, but I think it's something different: with Patterson and (hopefully, pretty please) an improved line, the coaches will actually trust the offense this year (not that they were wrong to not trust the offense last year).
So with all that said, what do you expect from the offense this year?
I expect:
*Like last year, an above average running game that should be slightly improved statistically.
*A vastly improved passing game resulting from: a QB that can actually hit a wide open target (which, even if there are no other improvements, is a HUGE improvement), an OL that while still not great (or even above average) at least mostly eliminates the inexplicable major gaffs and completely blown assignments, and WR's that now know what they're doing. I expect the passing game to be average statistically, which would put it in the 60's. Before you get upset about that prediction, keep in mind that Michigan was in the 100's for almost all passing stats last season. Michigan Stadium was loudly cheering when Peters completed a 2 yard pass to a fullback for crying out loud. So Michigan would be going from basically dead last to average. That's a substantial improvement.
*Overall, an average offense. I'd love something more than that, but if the defense is as good as advertised they don't need to be any better than average. And that's the same story as last year. If they were simply not awful last year, Michigan would have been a contender (and certainly would have at minimum beaten MSU and made last season slightly more palatable).
115th in 3rd down conversion %
115th in team passing efficiency
113th in pass completion %
110th in sacks allowed
110th in passing offense
105th in total offense
105th in first down offense
91st in scoring offense
85th in turnovers lost
68th in red zones offense
49th in rushing offense
20th in time of possession
Please allow yourself a few moments to shake those statistics off. They're horrible.
Now that you've had some time to recover, what are your expectations for Michigan's offense this season? Some things to keep in mind:
*Shea Patterson threw for more yards and twice as many TDs as Michigan QB's did last season in just half a season. He was also 10 percentage points higher in his completion percentage than Michigan's quarterbacks.
*Michigan's offensive line should be better, though probably still not great. Despite optimism about Runyan, he's still a question mark. And at right tackle your have a 5th year player in JBB who was atrocious in pass protection but pretty good as a run blocker. And the young guys still can't beat him out. So RT is still a question mark. I'm optimistic Patterson will help hide some OL problems.
*Michigan had a slightly above average running game last year. Part of that is probably because that's all they were capable of doing. But I'll submit that while pass blocking continued to be atrocious, run blocking improved as the season progressed - especially as our younger players got more experience. Assuming the right side of the line is Ruiz, Onwenu and JBB, that's a pretty good set of run blockers with potential to be really good.
*Michigan's WR corps should be improved this year, and not just because they have a capable QB throwing to them. The Black loss hurts, but he really didn't play last year either. You have a lot of talent returning, and that talent has supposedly blossomed (Gentry, DPJ and Collins in particular).
*People will argue Michigan's offensive staff and play calling will be more cohesive and defined, but I think it's something different: with Patterson and (hopefully, pretty please) an improved line, the coaches will actually trust the offense this year (not that they were wrong to not trust the offense last year).
So with all that said, what do you expect from the offense this year?
I expect:
*Like last year, an above average running game that should be slightly improved statistically.
*A vastly improved passing game resulting from: a QB that can actually hit a wide open target (which, even if there are no other improvements, is a HUGE improvement), an OL that while still not great (or even above average) at least mostly eliminates the inexplicable major gaffs and completely blown assignments, and WR's that now know what they're doing. I expect the passing game to be average statistically, which would put it in the 60's. Before you get upset about that prediction, keep in mind that Michigan was in the 100's for almost all passing stats last season. Michigan Stadium was loudly cheering when Peters completed a 2 yard pass to a fullback for crying out loud. So Michigan would be going from basically dead last to average. That's a substantial improvement.
*Overall, an average offense. I'd love something more than that, but if the defense is as good as advertised they don't need to be any better than average. And that's the same story as last year. If they were simply not awful last year, Michigan would have been a contender (and certainly would have at minimum beaten MSU and made last season slightly more palatable).
