In looking back at 2018 and 2019 Michigan - OSU games (painful as that may be) here are some following high level observations
2018:
- Ohio State had 12 possessions resulting in
- 7 Touchdowns
- 2 Field Goals
- Both inside the 5 that could have easily ended in touchdowns (first was as time expired at the end of the half)
- 3 Punts
- 1 Turnover Giveaway
- 2 Turnover Takeaways
- They scored their 8th touchdown on a blocked Punt
2019:
- Ohio State had 12 possessions resulting n
- 8 Touchdowns
- 4 Punts
- 1 Turnover Giveaway
- 2 Turnover Takeaways
Certainly there are multiple factors that influence possessions including:
1. The skill of the various teams year over year
2. Turnovers that significantly impact field position
3. Ability of the opposition (Michigan) to control time of possession
In considering these points I assess the following
1. Skill of the various teams year over year
- 2020 OSU Passing = similar to 2019 & 2018
- 2020 OSU Rushing = a step down from 2019 & 2018 (no Dobbins)
- 2020 UM Pass Defense = Worse than 2019 & 2018 (tough to think thats possible, but here we are)
- 2019 UM Rush Defense = Decidedly worse than 2019 & 2018 (OSU ran for 171 yards in 2019 & 264 yards in 2018)
2. Turnovers
- Difficult to predict turnovers, but it is not unreasonable, especially without Cade to see UM turning the ball over 1-2 times consistent with 2018 & 2019
3. Time of possession
- With the ineptness of Michigan's offense, it is going to be difficult to control the ball.
- We put up 39 points in 2018 and 27 points in 2019. Neither are likely to happen this year
Expect some of those drives that resulted in points in prior years to be short possessions (3 and outs) resulting in punts and possibly strong field position for OSU
Q&A
Q: How many possessions can we expect OSU to have?
A: I think its reasonable to expect that OSU will have at least the 12 possessions they had in 2018 & 2019
Q: If OSU has 12 possessions, how many points can they reasonably be expected to score?
A: Given the historical ineptness of Michigan's offense/defense and OSU's prolific offense, it is reasonable to think OSU will score at least the 56 points they scored in 2018 and as many as 77 points (they could have easily scored 70 points in 2018 if they had scored touchdowns inside the 5)
Q: What is a reasonable expectations for Michigan to score?
A: Absent Cade, UM is going to have a very difficult time outscoring the 17 points they put up on PSU and could easily put up as few as 6-7 points
Q: WIll Ryan Day take the foot off the gas?
A: With how awful Michigan's defense is, would it matter? Basic read option plays were going for big yards, so even if OSU reverted to basic plays, its reasonably possible they will continue to carve up big yardage
Prediction:
Positive outcome - OSU 63 UM 17 (OSU -46)
- I'd estimate that a positive outcome for Michigan if they catch a number of breaks and can sustain a few drives to eat up TOP
Negative outcome - OSU 77 UM 6 (OSU -71)
- UM gives up explosive plays on defense and can't move the ball on offense providing OSU short fields and extra possessions and possibly turns the ball over
I'd say a miracle is impossible, but I physically witnessed 2013, but the likelihood of keeping the game close is remote.
Tough to optically extend Harbaugh if either of those results come to fruition. 3 consecutive years of the worst defensive performences in UM history and what would be the largest margin of defeat ever on the back of a debacle of a season. I'd like to say this is a negative outlook of possible outcomes, but it looks pretty realistic to me.
To quote the one and only Mr. T. What can we expect if the game is played?
2018:
- Ohio State had 12 possessions resulting in
- 7 Touchdowns
- 2 Field Goals
- Both inside the 5 that could have easily ended in touchdowns (first was as time expired at the end of the half)
- 3 Punts
- 1 Turnover Giveaway
- 2 Turnover Takeaways
- They scored their 8th touchdown on a blocked Punt
2019:
- Ohio State had 12 possessions resulting n
- 8 Touchdowns
- 4 Punts
- 1 Turnover Giveaway
- 2 Turnover Takeaways
Certainly there are multiple factors that influence possessions including:
1. The skill of the various teams year over year
2. Turnovers that significantly impact field position
3. Ability of the opposition (Michigan) to control time of possession
In considering these points I assess the following
1. Skill of the various teams year over year
- 2020 OSU Passing = similar to 2019 & 2018
- 2020 OSU Rushing = a step down from 2019 & 2018 (no Dobbins)
- 2020 UM Pass Defense = Worse than 2019 & 2018 (tough to think thats possible, but here we are)
- 2019 UM Rush Defense = Decidedly worse than 2019 & 2018 (OSU ran for 171 yards in 2019 & 264 yards in 2018)
2. Turnovers
- Difficult to predict turnovers, but it is not unreasonable, especially without Cade to see UM turning the ball over 1-2 times consistent with 2018 & 2019
3. Time of possession
- With the ineptness of Michigan's offense, it is going to be difficult to control the ball.
- We put up 39 points in 2018 and 27 points in 2019. Neither are likely to happen this year
Expect some of those drives that resulted in points in prior years to be short possessions (3 and outs) resulting in punts and possibly strong field position for OSU
Q&A
Q: How many possessions can we expect OSU to have?
A: I think its reasonable to expect that OSU will have at least the 12 possessions they had in 2018 & 2019
Q: If OSU has 12 possessions, how many points can they reasonably be expected to score?
A: Given the historical ineptness of Michigan's offense/defense and OSU's prolific offense, it is reasonable to think OSU will score at least the 56 points they scored in 2018 and as many as 77 points (they could have easily scored 70 points in 2018 if they had scored touchdowns inside the 5)
Q: What is a reasonable expectations for Michigan to score?
A: Absent Cade, UM is going to have a very difficult time outscoring the 17 points they put up on PSU and could easily put up as few as 6-7 points
Q: WIll Ryan Day take the foot off the gas?
A: With how awful Michigan's defense is, would it matter? Basic read option plays were going for big yards, so even if OSU reverted to basic plays, its reasonably possible they will continue to carve up big yardage
Prediction:
Positive outcome - OSU 63 UM 17 (OSU -46)
- I'd estimate that a positive outcome for Michigan if they catch a number of breaks and can sustain a few drives to eat up TOP
Negative outcome - OSU 77 UM 6 (OSU -71)
- UM gives up explosive plays on defense and can't move the ball on offense providing OSU short fields and extra possessions and possibly turns the ball over
I'd say a miracle is impossible, but I physically witnessed 2013, but the likelihood of keeping the game close is remote.
Tough to optically extend Harbaugh if either of those results come to fruition. 3 consecutive years of the worst defensive performences in UM history and what would be the largest margin of defeat ever on the back of a debacle of a season. I'd like to say this is a negative outlook of possible outcomes, but it looks pretty realistic to me.
To quote the one and only Mr. T. What can we expect if the game is played?
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