Assuming:
- They score TD with 27 seconds left
- 50% of making 2 (both teams)
- 20% of recovering onside kick
- 75% chance of getting into FG range in 20 seconds
- 75% of making 40ish yard FG
- 50% of winning in OT
- Make 2. They must score, get onside, get into FG range, make FG. Loss probability = .5(.2)(.75)(.75) = 5.625%
- Miss 2, they kick to tie, go to OT. Loss probability = .5(.5) = 25%
- Miss 2, they go for 2. Loss probability = .5(.5) = 25%
- Kick PAT. They go for 2, then go to OT. Loss probability = .5(.5) = 25%
