And where we actually stand. This is a perfect opportunity for a massive road win, I’d argue the largest since Harbaugh’s first season in happy valley. This is a good Wisconsin team but it is severely flawed compared to what we’ve come to expect in Madison. There is not an elite RB, the OL is good but nowhere near Wisconsin standard (so far), mertz has imploded to a truly historic level (he has more pick 6s than TD passes this season) and, in what has been an Iowa level steady program, the natives are getting a bit restless with Paul Chryst, but, far more so, his OC.
1. Harbaugh. Any coach with some semblance of self awareness would realize by now he’s got a major problem on the road, often emulating a “late third quarter up two scores” Lloyd Carr game plan, but without the actual lead. We have been profoundly vanilla in these situations, even with our best teams (2016 lowa, for instance, was criminal). Wisconsin will be the best rush defense we face this season, and the largest pound for pound front 7. Everyone in the stadium saw what happened when even a team on the level of rutgers puts 8 in the box: no matter how good your line is, 6 vs. 8 is often a recipe for disaster. What does Wisconsin not have? The pure speed to run with Henning, Wilson, Mikey, Corum. Will we FINALLY use our athleticism advantage and attack the edges, or keep slamming a sledgehammer into a wall up the middle? Please. Some creativity.
2. Cade. Following up on #1, this is his chance, if given the opportunity, to make a lot of people, including me, look very, very stupid. I think Michigan has the clear advantage in terms of our WRs/All vs. their secondary and linebackers. We are a much faster team, and I think it’s evident just watching a few plays of prior games this season. Corum should be a nightmare on wheel routes. We’ve heard forever how nobody can guard All, and Wisconsin doesn’t have a single LB anywhere near the speed of someone like Junior Colson. The line has been great in pass pro all year long. If gattis/JH give him a chance, the opportunity is there for Cade to totally seize the QB job, and change the entire narrative.
3. Our front 7. My biggest concern. 4.7 YPC to rutgers, their highest in almost 3 calendar years against a power 5 opponent, with a long run of just 13 yards. That means there isn’t an 80 yard scamper to skew those numbers. They lined up and pounded the ball, repeatedly, and effectively. This Wisconsin line doesn’t have Joe Thomas, but it enormous, as always, and will be one of the best we face. Can we emulate what will likely be the Wisconsin defense’s plan under Leonhard, and load the box forcing a very, very wounded Mertz to beat us? Can we trust Gray and Green in more vulnerable situations?
4. Team culture. This team, and the locker room, were an absolute mess last season. We’ve been told much of the bad seeds have been removed. The kids certainly seem to be having more fun, and the energy, even as the second half was a total slog, was noticeable. But this team has never trailed and never turned the ball over. What happens when they get punched in the mouth? When Wisconsin goes on a 7 minute drive and takes a 7-0 lead. Is the culture really fixed?
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say this is one of the biggest games in recent history, I’d say since 2018 OSU, but, whereas that was to make the playoff, this is to see if our program and its current leadership can survive.
It’s going to be an absolute mess of a game. Poor conditions, good defenses, inexperienced QBs. But I think FINALLY we come through.
Michigan 20 Wisconsin 13
1. Harbaugh. Any coach with some semblance of self awareness would realize by now he’s got a major problem on the road, often emulating a “late third quarter up two scores” Lloyd Carr game plan, but without the actual lead. We have been profoundly vanilla in these situations, even with our best teams (2016 lowa, for instance, was criminal). Wisconsin will be the best rush defense we face this season, and the largest pound for pound front 7. Everyone in the stadium saw what happened when even a team on the level of rutgers puts 8 in the box: no matter how good your line is, 6 vs. 8 is often a recipe for disaster. What does Wisconsin not have? The pure speed to run with Henning, Wilson, Mikey, Corum. Will we FINALLY use our athleticism advantage and attack the edges, or keep slamming a sledgehammer into a wall up the middle? Please. Some creativity.
2. Cade. Following up on #1, this is his chance, if given the opportunity, to make a lot of people, including me, look very, very stupid. I think Michigan has the clear advantage in terms of our WRs/All vs. their secondary and linebackers. We are a much faster team, and I think it’s evident just watching a few plays of prior games this season. Corum should be a nightmare on wheel routes. We’ve heard forever how nobody can guard All, and Wisconsin doesn’t have a single LB anywhere near the speed of someone like Junior Colson. The line has been great in pass pro all year long. If gattis/JH give him a chance, the opportunity is there for Cade to totally seize the QB job, and change the entire narrative.
3. Our front 7. My biggest concern. 4.7 YPC to rutgers, their highest in almost 3 calendar years against a power 5 opponent, with a long run of just 13 yards. That means there isn’t an 80 yard scamper to skew those numbers. They lined up and pounded the ball, repeatedly, and effectively. This Wisconsin line doesn’t have Joe Thomas, but it enormous, as always, and will be one of the best we face. Can we emulate what will likely be the Wisconsin defense’s plan under Leonhard, and load the box forcing a very, very wounded Mertz to beat us? Can we trust Gray and Green in more vulnerable situations?
4. Team culture. This team, and the locker room, were an absolute mess last season. We’ve been told much of the bad seeds have been removed. The kids certainly seem to be having more fun, and the energy, even as the second half was a total slog, was noticeable. But this team has never trailed and never turned the ball over. What happens when they get punched in the mouth? When Wisconsin goes on a 7 minute drive and takes a 7-0 lead. Is the culture really fixed?
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say this is one of the biggest games in recent history, I’d say since 2018 OSU, but, whereas that was to make the playoff, this is to see if our program and its current leadership can survive.
It’s going to be an absolute mess of a game. Poor conditions, good defenses, inexperienced QBs. But I think FINALLY we come through.
Michigan 20 Wisconsin 13
