First off, it was still a great season. After Oakland (12-18 this year) took us to overtime early this year, there is no one who would have predicted a Big Ten championship and #1 seed for this team.
It's always disappointing to lose tourney games when you either feel like you're the better team, or you haven't played well. Recent examples would be Ohio in 2012 (better team), and Texas Tech in 2019 (played poorly).
Here, it was both. We're the better team and we played poorly.
Our starting backcourt consists of a 6-1 guy who, if we're being honest, was recruited to be a third combo guard off the bench (Eli Brooks), and a 5-11, fifth-year transfer from an Ivy League program (Mike Smith). That is usually not a recipe for a Big Ten championship or a deep run in the tourney. Those guys combined to average 17.4 points a game this year.
Both coaches share a little blame when it comes to the talent level at guard. JB missed on some big targets like DJ Carton, Noah Locke, and Cormack Ryan (all of whom, one would think, would be starters on this team), and then Juwan struck out with literally all of his two guard targets last year (Springer, Christopher, Moody, Burnett). You make it work with what you have, and for the most part we did. Adding Smith and Brown was very helpful.
As it applies to last night, in most games, we were going to need one or more of Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, or Hunter Dickinson to have big games if we were going to beat a good opponent. Last night Livers of course was out, and Franz and Hunter did not play particularly well.
Furthermore, between Hunter and Brandon Johns, they played 59 minutes and grabbed exactly two rebounds. That's hard to fathom but it's what happened.
Turning to Franz, his defense was outstanding all year and he became a playmaker with the ball in his hands. With that said, his shooting improved only marginally, and last night was another clear example of a time when we needed him to knock down open threes, or score on drives, and he couldn't. He also seems like a guy who, against a physical defense, has to be prodded into driving to the basket and drawing contact. The truly great offensive players embrace contact and like to get to the free throw line.
Now juxtapose Franz's performance with Johnny Juzang. Juzang is always in triple threat position, and he can rise up and fire with a man right in his face because he has the proper release point for his shot. If I'm an NBA scout watching last night's game, I don't see how I could justify drafting Franz over Juzang right now. I assume one bad game will probably not make a difference as far as Franz's NBA decision, and if it doesn't, it's a real bummer that this is how his otherwise great Michigan career will end. But it was the same for Gary Grant and Jalen Rose, too. It happens. I do think Franz might be well served by coming back to work on his offense. But if it's just about making the NBA, and getting that lucrative first contract (like it seemed to be for Poole and Wilson), he's a lock right now. And I really can't blame any 19 year old kid for making the choice to earn millions of dollars.
Now, after I've said Smith and Brooks have clear limitations, I'll say something that at first blush may seem contradictory - we need them back. Or we at least need to replace them with similarly skilled and experienced players.
Given what Smith and Brooks contributed this year, and their familiarity with the coaching staff, system, and culture, and their leadership roles, I would prefer to have them back. Sure, a guy like Fatts Russell can seem like a shiny new toy, and maybe he does indeed offer things that Smith or Brooks don't have, but you just never know and in terms of fit, you almost really never know.
I do think long term (say by 2023), Collins, Bufkin, and to a lesser degree Zeb Jackson (who really needs work on his outside shot) have far more upside than the current starting backcourt. But they won't realize that upside in 2022, and the last thing we want is for one of them to show just enough to declare for the draft. Unlikely, but of course Iggy was unlikely to leave after one year too until he did.
Another guy I'd like to get back is Chaundee Brown. He came alive again in the final three games of this tourney, and is a good perimeter shooter. He also sets the right tone defensively (except for last night, where he inexplicably left Juzang a few times).
Moving forward, it seems like we're going to have plenty of talent. Will Johns stay? He stepped up in this tourney and probably has a leg up on the starting four spot next year, but he has to get much stronger with the ball. His hands are a bit of a disaster at this point. And he's much more effective when he can space the floor and make threes. But he has to make threes.
The future athleticism (Collins, Bufkin, Barnes, Diabate) is there in spades. Will we have shooting? I actually think Tschetter is going to be a very good shooter as a stretch four for us, in time. Caleb Houston also seems like an elite shooter.
The key will be retaining players long enough for them to become difference makers, and developing them. On the second point, the current staff's work with Brooks, Davis, and Livers is encouraging, and DeJulius took a big step forward as a sophomore too, while Castleton did not. Franz was very good from day one (and still hasn't fixed his shooting), so I don't know how much credit the staff deserves there, and only Johns is a guy who I would say hasn't developed enough (but also didn't under JB).
Anyway, with the transfer portal in full swing, the next few weeks will no doubt be extremely interesting.
One final point - we were playing our best ball before the Covid pause. The way we played against Wisconsin at Crisler, for example - if we carry that over to last night, we win by 20. But it is what it is, and nearly every team faced some Covid-related issue.
Kudos again to this team and staff for a very good, indeed great season.
It's always disappointing to lose tourney games when you either feel like you're the better team, or you haven't played well. Recent examples would be Ohio in 2012 (better team), and Texas Tech in 2019 (played poorly).
Here, it was both. We're the better team and we played poorly.
Our starting backcourt consists of a 6-1 guy who, if we're being honest, was recruited to be a third combo guard off the bench (Eli Brooks), and a 5-11, fifth-year transfer from an Ivy League program (Mike Smith). That is usually not a recipe for a Big Ten championship or a deep run in the tourney. Those guys combined to average 17.4 points a game this year.
Both coaches share a little blame when it comes to the talent level at guard. JB missed on some big targets like DJ Carton, Noah Locke, and Cormack Ryan (all of whom, one would think, would be starters on this team), and then Juwan struck out with literally all of his two guard targets last year (Springer, Christopher, Moody, Burnett). You make it work with what you have, and for the most part we did. Adding Smith and Brown was very helpful.
As it applies to last night, in most games, we were going to need one or more of Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, or Hunter Dickinson to have big games if we were going to beat a good opponent. Last night Livers of course was out, and Franz and Hunter did not play particularly well.
Furthermore, between Hunter and Brandon Johns, they played 59 minutes and grabbed exactly two rebounds. That's hard to fathom but it's what happened.
Turning to Franz, his defense was outstanding all year and he became a playmaker with the ball in his hands. With that said, his shooting improved only marginally, and last night was another clear example of a time when we needed him to knock down open threes, or score on drives, and he couldn't. He also seems like a guy who, against a physical defense, has to be prodded into driving to the basket and drawing contact. The truly great offensive players embrace contact and like to get to the free throw line.
Now juxtapose Franz's performance with Johnny Juzang. Juzang is always in triple threat position, and he can rise up and fire with a man right in his face because he has the proper release point for his shot. If I'm an NBA scout watching last night's game, I don't see how I could justify drafting Franz over Juzang right now. I assume one bad game will probably not make a difference as far as Franz's NBA decision, and if it doesn't, it's a real bummer that this is how his otherwise great Michigan career will end. But it was the same for Gary Grant and Jalen Rose, too. It happens. I do think Franz might be well served by coming back to work on his offense. But if it's just about making the NBA, and getting that lucrative first contract (like it seemed to be for Poole and Wilson), he's a lock right now. And I really can't blame any 19 year old kid for making the choice to earn millions of dollars.
Now, after I've said Smith and Brooks have clear limitations, I'll say something that at first blush may seem contradictory - we need them back. Or we at least need to replace them with similarly skilled and experienced players.
Given what Smith and Brooks contributed this year, and their familiarity with the coaching staff, system, and culture, and their leadership roles, I would prefer to have them back. Sure, a guy like Fatts Russell can seem like a shiny new toy, and maybe he does indeed offer things that Smith or Brooks don't have, but you just never know and in terms of fit, you almost really never know.
I do think long term (say by 2023), Collins, Bufkin, and to a lesser degree Zeb Jackson (who really needs work on his outside shot) have far more upside than the current starting backcourt. But they won't realize that upside in 2022, and the last thing we want is for one of them to show just enough to declare for the draft. Unlikely, but of course Iggy was unlikely to leave after one year too until he did.
Another guy I'd like to get back is Chaundee Brown. He came alive again in the final three games of this tourney, and is a good perimeter shooter. He also sets the right tone defensively (except for last night, where he inexplicably left Juzang a few times).
Moving forward, it seems like we're going to have plenty of talent. Will Johns stay? He stepped up in this tourney and probably has a leg up on the starting four spot next year, but he has to get much stronger with the ball. His hands are a bit of a disaster at this point. And he's much more effective when he can space the floor and make threes. But he has to make threes.
The future athleticism (Collins, Bufkin, Barnes, Diabate) is there in spades. Will we have shooting? I actually think Tschetter is going to be a very good shooter as a stretch four for us, in time. Caleb Houston also seems like an elite shooter.
The key will be retaining players long enough for them to become difference makers, and developing them. On the second point, the current staff's work with Brooks, Davis, and Livers is encouraging, and DeJulius took a big step forward as a sophomore too, while Castleton did not. Franz was very good from day one (and still hasn't fixed his shooting), so I don't know how much credit the staff deserves there, and only Johns is a guy who I would say hasn't developed enough (but also didn't under JB).
Anyway, with the transfer portal in full swing, the next few weeks will no doubt be extremely interesting.
One final point - we were playing our best ball before the Covid pause. The way we played against Wisconsin at Crisler, for example - if we carry that over to last night, we win by 20. But it is what it is, and nearly every team faced some Covid-related issue.
Kudos again to this team and staff for a very good, indeed great season.
