Understanding why Michigan football will be Mediocre in 2021
I have been quite bothered by the idea that Michigan football can have the second best recruiting classes in the Big Ten (truth) yet this season is perhaps the 6th or 7th best team in the conference...I'm really bothered by that idea. So I dug into the question.
Talent Rules
Talent is still the dominant factor in winning college football. That factor is mitigated by three factors
Recruiting: Every class has highly rated players who are in hindsight over-rated (Anthony Jordan), but we seem to have too many for my comfort.
Retention: There are too many guys who could be starters who left to other schools. Some NFL bound guys could have stayed. (Note: Aiden Hutchinson certainly could have gone to the NFL but stayed)
Talent Development: Who knows how many guys have potential and never got the right coaching/development.
Questions
Retention: How many starters are there in that GONE group below? Eight for sure and perhaps as many as 10 players would start on this team.
Recruiting: How many 4-Star Rated players were hugely over-rated (i.e. Milton)?
Talent Development: How many players here did not see development or opportunity (i.e. St.-Juste)?
Culture; How many just got pissed off that the team/staff and said "I'm outta here" (i.e. Black)
I think I "GET IT"
We did not get FROM the Portal, a similar amount or quality talent we lost THROUGH the portal
Our NFL departures are not filled with big-time contributors.
BOTTOMLINE: We have been bleeding talent and not replacing it quickly or well enough.
Whose fault? Credit and Blame begins and ends at the top: Harbaugh
Highly Rated (4/5-Star) Upper-Classmen - Who are GONE
Below are 4-Stars and Above, who might have been upper-classmen and potentially 5th years seniors on this team. (not certain of all eligibilities)
These should/could be/might have been the heart of our team.
2017 - GONE - D. Peoples-Jones - WR - 6.1 - 5-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Cesar Ruiz - OL - 6 - 5-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Tarik Black - WR - 5.9 - 4-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Nico Collins - WR - 5.9 - 4-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Ambry Thomas - DB - 5.9 - 4-Star - NFL
2018 - GONE - Jalen Mayfield - OL - 5.8 - 4-Star - NFL
2018 - GONE - Cameron McGrone - LB - 5.8 - 4-Star - NFL
2019 - GONE - Giles Jackson - WR - 5.8 - 4-Star - Washington
2017 - GONE - Luiji Vilain - DE - 5.9 - 4-Star - Wake Forest
2019 - GONE - Zach Charbonnet - RB - 6 - 5-Star - UCLA
2017 - GONE - Jordan Anthony - LB - 6.1 - 5-Star - Troy
2017 - GONE - Aubrey Solomon - DT - 6.1 - 5-Star - Tennessee
2018 - GONE - Joe Milton - QB - 5.8 - 4-Star - Tennessee
2020 - GONE - William Mohan - LB - 5.8 - 4-Star - Tennessee
2017 - GONE - Drew Singleton - LB - 6 - 5-Star - Rutgers
2017 - GONE - Corey Malone-Hatcher - DE - 5.8 - 4-Star - Retired from Football
2017 - GONE - Dylan McCaffrey - QB - 5.9 - 4-Star - Northern Colorado
2017 - GONE - O'Maury Samuels - RB - 5.8 - 4-Star - New Mexico State
2017 - GONE - Oliver Martin - WR - 5.8 - 4-Star - Nebraska
2017 - GONE - Benjamin St-Juste - DB - 5.8 - 4-Star - Minnesota/NFL
2018 - GONE - Mustapha Muhammad - TE - 5.8 - 4-Star - Houston
2018 - GONE - Myles Sims - DB - 5.9 - 4-Star - Georgia Tech
2017 - GONE - James Hudson - DE - 5.8 - 4-Star - Cincinnati
I have been quite bothered by the idea that Michigan football can have the second best recruiting classes in the Big Ten (truth) yet this season is perhaps the 6th or 7th best team in the conference...I'm really bothered by that idea. So I dug into the question.
Talent Rules
Talent is still the dominant factor in winning college football. That factor is mitigated by three factors
Recruiting: Every class has highly rated players who are in hindsight over-rated (Anthony Jordan), but we seem to have too many for my comfort.
Retention: There are too many guys who could be starters who left to other schools. Some NFL bound guys could have stayed. (Note: Aiden Hutchinson certainly could have gone to the NFL but stayed)
Talent Development: Who knows how many guys have potential and never got the right coaching/development.
Questions
Retention: How many starters are there in that GONE group below? Eight for sure and perhaps as many as 10 players would start on this team.
Recruiting: How many 4-Star Rated players were hugely over-rated (i.e. Milton)?
Talent Development: How many players here did not see development or opportunity (i.e. St.-Juste)?
Culture; How many just got pissed off that the team/staff and said "I'm outta here" (i.e. Black)
I think I "GET IT"
We did not get FROM the Portal, a similar amount or quality talent we lost THROUGH the portal
Our NFL departures are not filled with big-time contributors.
BOTTOMLINE: We have been bleeding talent and not replacing it quickly or well enough.
Whose fault? Credit and Blame begins and ends at the top: Harbaugh
Highly Rated (4/5-Star) Upper-Classmen - Who are GONE
Below are 4-Stars and Above, who might have been upper-classmen and potentially 5th years seniors on this team. (not certain of all eligibilities)
These should/could be/might have been the heart of our team.
2017 - GONE - D. Peoples-Jones - WR - 6.1 - 5-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Cesar Ruiz - OL - 6 - 5-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Tarik Black - WR - 5.9 - 4-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Nico Collins - WR - 5.9 - 4-Star - NFL
2017 - GONE - Ambry Thomas - DB - 5.9 - 4-Star - NFL
2018 - GONE - Jalen Mayfield - OL - 5.8 - 4-Star - NFL
2018 - GONE - Cameron McGrone - LB - 5.8 - 4-Star - NFL
2019 - GONE - Giles Jackson - WR - 5.8 - 4-Star - Washington
2017 - GONE - Luiji Vilain - DE - 5.9 - 4-Star - Wake Forest
2019 - GONE - Zach Charbonnet - RB - 6 - 5-Star - UCLA
2017 - GONE - Jordan Anthony - LB - 6.1 - 5-Star - Troy
2017 - GONE - Aubrey Solomon - DT - 6.1 - 5-Star - Tennessee
2018 - GONE - Joe Milton - QB - 5.8 - 4-Star - Tennessee
2020 - GONE - William Mohan - LB - 5.8 - 4-Star - Tennessee
2017 - GONE - Drew Singleton - LB - 6 - 5-Star - Rutgers
2017 - GONE - Corey Malone-Hatcher - DE - 5.8 - 4-Star - Retired from Football
2017 - GONE - Dylan McCaffrey - QB - 5.9 - 4-Star - Northern Colorado
2017 - GONE - O'Maury Samuels - RB - 5.8 - 4-Star - New Mexico State
2017 - GONE - Oliver Martin - WR - 5.8 - 4-Star - Nebraska
2017 - GONE - Benjamin St-Juste - DB - 5.8 - 4-Star - Minnesota/NFL
2018 - GONE - Mustapha Muhammad - TE - 5.8 - 4-Star - Houston
2018 - GONE - Myles Sims - DB - 5.9 - 4-Star - Georgia Tech
2017 - GONE - James Hudson - DE - 5.8 - 4-Star - Cincinnati
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