One of the great puzzles to me is Penn St. On one side they won the Big Ten, and I am reading their pre-season accolades. Part of me is just screaming that this is not a top 10 team. I'm trying to figure this out.
Regarding the importance of playing at HOME
In 2016 Penn St. played a three really easy teams on the road (won all three) and played two decent teams on the road (lost to both). At home against decent competition in three of four games they won by single digits...AT HOME. To me, that smells like a problem for them in 2017.
HOME vs. AWAY Spread Difference is BIG: Generally the difference between playing at HOME and on the ROAD for any single opponent is a difference of 8-11 points (Its a BIG deal)
In 2016 PSU had a very favorable Home/Road schedule (Final Sagarin Power Ranking in Parenthesis)
In 2016 Penn St. Played 5 True ROAD games
Michigan (3rd) Lost by 39
Pittsburgh (39th) Lost by 3
Indiana (69th) Won by 14
Purdue (126th) Won by 42
Rutgers (156th) Won by 39
Observation: Lost to their two strongest Road opponents
2016 Penn St Played 7 HOME games
Ohio St (5th) Won by 3 (Real Fluke of a Blocked Kick)
Iowa (41st) Won by 27 (Pure PSU Blowout)
Minnesota (25th) Won by 3 (Minny played them dead even and PSU won in OT)
Temple (43rd) Won by 7 (Temple trailed by 3 points with 8 minutes remaining)
Maryland (88th) Won by 24
Michigan St (84th) Won by 33
Kent St. (153rd) Won by 20
Observation: Won by 7 points of less to their top 3 of 4 Home Opponents
My Forecast based upon 2017 Schedule Flips (Rankings are Steele 2017 Power Ratings)
2017 Significant Road Games
Ohio St. (3rd) - LOSS
Northwestern (29th) - LOSS (This one will surprise some folks)
Iowa (42nd) - ???? Coin Flip
Michigan St (70th) - WIN (*)
Maryland (71st) - WIN
* Sparty always plays one game above their rank. Could this be it?
In 2017 Significant Home Games
Michigan (18th) - ???? Coin Flip
Nebraska (39th) - WIN
Pittsburgh (45th) - WIN
Indiana (59th) - WIN
Conclusion: Penn St looks like a 3 loss team to me based upon the schedule flip from 2016 to 2017. I think the UM-PSU game is a coin flip. Iowa on the road does not require any explanation. If we beat Florida and they escape Northwestern our trip to Happy Valley might look like game of the year to that point in the season. HUGE Hype.
Regarding the importance of playing at HOME
In 2016 Penn St. played a three really easy teams on the road (won all three) and played two decent teams on the road (lost to both). At home against decent competition in three of four games they won by single digits...AT HOME. To me, that smells like a problem for them in 2017.
HOME vs. AWAY Spread Difference is BIG: Generally the difference between playing at HOME and on the ROAD for any single opponent is a difference of 8-11 points (Its a BIG deal)
In 2016 PSU had a very favorable Home/Road schedule (Final Sagarin Power Ranking in Parenthesis)
In 2016 Penn St. Played 5 True ROAD games
Michigan (3rd) Lost by 39
Pittsburgh (39th) Lost by 3
Indiana (69th) Won by 14
Purdue (126th) Won by 42
Rutgers (156th) Won by 39
Observation: Lost to their two strongest Road opponents
2016 Penn St Played 7 HOME games
Ohio St (5th) Won by 3 (Real Fluke of a Blocked Kick)
Iowa (41st) Won by 27 (Pure PSU Blowout)
Minnesota (25th) Won by 3 (Minny played them dead even and PSU won in OT)
Temple (43rd) Won by 7 (Temple trailed by 3 points with 8 minutes remaining)
Maryland (88th) Won by 24
Michigan St (84th) Won by 33
Kent St. (153rd) Won by 20
Observation: Won by 7 points of less to their top 3 of 4 Home Opponents
My Forecast based upon 2017 Schedule Flips (Rankings are Steele 2017 Power Ratings)
2017 Significant Road Games
Ohio St. (3rd) - LOSS
Northwestern (29th) - LOSS (This one will surprise some folks)
Iowa (42nd) - ???? Coin Flip
Michigan St (70th) - WIN (*)
Maryland (71st) - WIN
* Sparty always plays one game above their rank. Could this be it?
In 2017 Significant Home Games
Michigan (18th) - ???? Coin Flip
Nebraska (39th) - WIN
Pittsburgh (45th) - WIN
Indiana (59th) - WIN
Conclusion: Penn St looks like a 3 loss team to me based upon the schedule flip from 2016 to 2017. I think the UM-PSU game is a coin flip. Iowa on the road does not require any explanation. If we beat Florida and they escape Northwestern our trip to Happy Valley might look like game of the year to that point in the season. HUGE Hype.
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