Let's assume the most likely outcome if this happens. Michigan pastes Northwestern by double digits, and Alabama loses a close game.
People love to bring up last year but it's not comparable. Ohio State lost two games in blowout fashion (people always bring up Iowa, but they also were blown out at home by Oklahoma). Michigan would have one loss on a road to a top 5 team in the non-conference.
The last point is huge here. The committee has always emphasized non-conference scheduling and conference championships. Michigan would have both. Alabama scheduled like cowards this year. They played arguably the worst power five team in college football and three cupcakes (also spare me they didn't know Louisville would be bad, Louisville isn't some historical power). You know who Alabama's big non-conference game is next year? Duke. I mean come on.
Keep in mind that the Big 10 has been the second best conference according to most experts in the playoff era. Yet, this would be the third straight year the conference champ would be sitting home based on some eye test garbage. And this year there would be no non-competitive loss to cite as a reason for keeping the champ at home (like with PSU in 2016, OSU in 2017). Rather, you'd be passing over the first B1G team to go unbeaten in conference since 2014 (and btw OSU ended up winning it that year) for a team that didn't win its conference and played no one.
Everyone talks eye test now, but if Alabama loses, they will have failed the eye test at the worst time. Unless Michigan comes out and beats the B1G West champ in uninspiring fashion, there will be a huge outcry to boot Alabama.
The bottom line is if you bypass Michigan, then we were all sold a bag of goods. Why should the other conferences support a system that is designed to support one conference over all others? I'd bet it would lead to the end of the B1G/P12 in this charade and a return to the old bowl system. The SEC can hold its own four team playoff every year and no one outside the south will watch.
People love to bring up last year but it's not comparable. Ohio State lost two games in blowout fashion (people always bring up Iowa, but they also were blown out at home by Oklahoma). Michigan would have one loss on a road to a top 5 team in the non-conference.
The last point is huge here. The committee has always emphasized non-conference scheduling and conference championships. Michigan would have both. Alabama scheduled like cowards this year. They played arguably the worst power five team in college football and three cupcakes (also spare me they didn't know Louisville would be bad, Louisville isn't some historical power). You know who Alabama's big non-conference game is next year? Duke. I mean come on.
Keep in mind that the Big 10 has been the second best conference according to most experts in the playoff era. Yet, this would be the third straight year the conference champ would be sitting home based on some eye test garbage. And this year there would be no non-competitive loss to cite as a reason for keeping the champ at home (like with PSU in 2016, OSU in 2017). Rather, you'd be passing over the first B1G team to go unbeaten in conference since 2014 (and btw OSU ended up winning it that year) for a team that didn't win its conference and played no one.
Everyone talks eye test now, but if Alabama loses, they will have failed the eye test at the worst time. Unless Michigan comes out and beats the B1G West champ in uninspiring fashion, there will be a huge outcry to boot Alabama.
The bottom line is if you bypass Michigan, then we were all sold a bag of goods. Why should the other conferences support a system that is designed to support one conference over all others? I'd bet it would lead to the end of the B1G/P12 in this charade and a return to the old bowl system. The SEC can hold its own four team playoff every year and no one outside the south will watch.
