We're clearly looking at a 16th loss in 17 years to OSU. That is just numbing to write. Prior to that, Michigan had won 11 of the prior 16 (including the 10-2-1 stretch against Cooper), and before that, the rivalry was even for a 20 year period. The chasm between Michigan and Ohio State looks as wide as ever, and if you had to bet your life as to whether Rutgers would beat Michigan more than Michigan would beat Ohio State over the next five years, you'd probably bet Rutgers. How did we get this point though? OSU always wanted to beat Michigan badly, but there isn't a Buckeye that ever thought the rivalry would get to this point.
Sure, some people will comfort themselves with the notion that it was 100% cheating, but that's just not accurate. There were numerous key moments which led us to this state. Here are 10 which really stick out.
(1) OSU hires Tressel. You can't ignore this. Sure he cheated, but he was a great coach and he cared deeply about this game. There wasn't a world where Tressel wouldn't have the game extremely competitive even if Michigan was humming like it was in the late 80s and early 90s. When he was hired in 2001, no one thought he would do it turn it around as quickly as he did. OSU fans point to that guarantee at a January basketball game as a seminal moment, but it was actually a moment later in the spring which is the next checkpoint on our list.
(2) Henson bolts Michigan for the baseball. Tressel's guarantee is great and all, but the truth is if Drew Henson stays at Michigan, Ohio State probably loses the first Michigan game under Tressel is convincing fashion, and Michigan likely advances to the BCS title game, while OSU is 6-5. How is Tressel viewed after one year then? Is he viewed as a savior who gets the Michigan game or someone who was a stretch to jump from FCS to the a program like OSU? What is the immediate recruiting fallout from that? Is Tressel able to build that fence around Ohio if he goes 6-6 with a 38-21 loss to Michigan in year one, while Michigan is winning its fourth B1G title in five years, and heading into its third BCS bowl in five years (and possibly playing for a national title)? Is OSU able to beat Michigan the next season if it enters the game still harboring doubts if it could really beat Michigan and coming off an 11th loss in 14 years?
(3) OSU upsets Michigan in dominating fashion to end the 2004 season. With all that said, nearly four seasons into Tressel's tenure, it appeared that if not in better shape than OSU, the programs were on equal footing. OSU won the 2002 national title, but Michigan handled them easily the next season en route to the outright B1G title, and had clinched a share of the B1G heading into Columbus to face a down OSU team that came into the game at 6-4. Michigan appeared poised to finish 10-1, send Tressel to a second five loss season in four seasons, and led by freshmen Henne and Hart, we appeared primed to dominate the B1G for the next two seasons. Instead, Michigan laid an absolute egg. The narrative flipped instantly -- all of the sudden 2004 was viewed as a success for OSU, and Carr lost for the second time in four seasons as a favorite to OSU. This was the game where it really seemed the rivalry flipped.
(4) Michigan lets OSU off the hook in 2005 after it played terribly. We talk how OSU always plays great during the Michigan game. In 2005, that wasn't the case. This may have been OSU's most talented team under Tressel, and they bumbled around for three quarters. Michigan led 21-12 with 6 minutes left and lost.
(5) Crable's hit against Troy Smith. OSU was better than Michigan in 2006. It was clear that Michigan needed help to win that day in Columbus. Yet, we got help in the form of a 4-0 turnover advantage. We appeared poised to get the ball back with four minutes left down 4 with a chance to win. Given the nature of that game, where the offenses dominated, you'd have to had liked our chances. But a reckless play by Crable cost us that shot.
(6) Michigan passes on Les Miles for Rich Rod. I don't think Miles was a tremendous coach. But there is zero doubt in my mind that if we hired Miles in 2007 that we wouldn't have seen nearly the decline that happened under Rich Rod. Miles was coming off a national title and win over Tressel, so there would have been a lot of juice to Michigan hiring Miles. We know he wanted the job. He probably keeps Mallet, hires a competent DC and files a 7-5ish team in year one with a big time recruiting class. By the time Tressel is fired in 2010, Miles likely would have had Michigan in position to win the B1G in the Fickell year and the early Meyer years.
(7) OSU hires Urban. Obviously, this took OSU to another level. Even in Tressel's years, OSU was more of a regional recruiting machine--landing all the top Ohio kids, plucking some top guys out of PA or other midwest states and then occasionally getting a top kid outside the region. Meyer took that to another level.
(8) Michigan passes on Harbaugh for Hoke in 2010. The Jim Harbaugh of the Stanford years was what Michigan needed in 2010. Everyone figured he was coming here in 2010. We all know what happened. Looking back, Michigan missed what in many ways were the peak Harbaugh years (and SF got them). If Michigan hires Harbaugh in 2010, he gets to Michigan before Urban arrives at OSU, and doesn't start out with a 2-3 year recruiting disadvantage. Harbaugh probably wins the B1G in 2011 or 2012, and likely starts his career with an OSU victory.
(9) Michigan blows the 2016 game. Yes, I know Barrett was probably short. But it never should have come to that. Michigan had a 17-7 lead with 2 minutes left in the third and had outgained OSU 254-123 (I looked). Our win expectancy was 90% according to ESPN. Literally, all we had to do was likely make OSU execute two long drives, which seemed unlikely given our defense and Barrett's inability to throw downfield. Instead, we saw Michigan make losing plays. First, Speight with a terrible pick to hand OSU a second TD. Then, in OT, Michigan has Samuel dead to rights on 3rd and 12 and lets him get away so that they're in position to go for it rather than attempt a 50 yard FG for a second OT. Arguably the costliest loss in UM history. IF we win here, Harbaugh takes us to the playoffs in year two and is 1-1 against OSU. Maybe we win the next year since the pressure is squarely on OSU to beat a 8-3 UM team.
(10) The 2018 faceplan in Columbus. People were actually cheering when OSU beat Maryland on an overthrown two point conversion because they arrogantly wanted to win the B1G on the field in Columbus as if it was a given (wouldn't it be great now if we actually won the B1G in 2018 regardless of how it happened, think OSU fans don't count the 1996 B1G title?). We all know what happened that day. But even worse, this game broke Harbaugh. He changed everything. We lost our identity. And now we're further away from OSU than we've ever been since 2001.
Bottom line is 1-17 is the culmination of a lot of bad moves by Michigan independent of OSU cheating. We shouldn't be 12-6, but with better play on the field or better decision off it, Michigan could easily have been 6-12 or 7-11 during an era where OSU was operating at an absolute apex. We have no one to blame but ourselves for the state of this "rivalry".
This offseason provides another inflection point, another opportunity to change direction. Let's hope we get it right this time. We're running out of time.
Sure, some people will comfort themselves with the notion that it was 100% cheating, but that's just not accurate. There were numerous key moments which led us to this state. Here are 10 which really stick out.
(1) OSU hires Tressel. You can't ignore this. Sure he cheated, but he was a great coach and he cared deeply about this game. There wasn't a world where Tressel wouldn't have the game extremely competitive even if Michigan was humming like it was in the late 80s and early 90s. When he was hired in 2001, no one thought he would do it turn it around as quickly as he did. OSU fans point to that guarantee at a January basketball game as a seminal moment, but it was actually a moment later in the spring which is the next checkpoint on our list.
(2) Henson bolts Michigan for the baseball. Tressel's guarantee is great and all, but the truth is if Drew Henson stays at Michigan, Ohio State probably loses the first Michigan game under Tressel is convincing fashion, and Michigan likely advances to the BCS title game, while OSU is 6-5. How is Tressel viewed after one year then? Is he viewed as a savior who gets the Michigan game or someone who was a stretch to jump from FCS to the a program like OSU? What is the immediate recruiting fallout from that? Is Tressel able to build that fence around Ohio if he goes 6-6 with a 38-21 loss to Michigan in year one, while Michigan is winning its fourth B1G title in five years, and heading into its third BCS bowl in five years (and possibly playing for a national title)? Is OSU able to beat Michigan the next season if it enters the game still harboring doubts if it could really beat Michigan and coming off an 11th loss in 14 years?
(3) OSU upsets Michigan in dominating fashion to end the 2004 season. With all that said, nearly four seasons into Tressel's tenure, it appeared that if not in better shape than OSU, the programs were on equal footing. OSU won the 2002 national title, but Michigan handled them easily the next season en route to the outright B1G title, and had clinched a share of the B1G heading into Columbus to face a down OSU team that came into the game at 6-4. Michigan appeared poised to finish 10-1, send Tressel to a second five loss season in four seasons, and led by freshmen Henne and Hart, we appeared primed to dominate the B1G for the next two seasons. Instead, Michigan laid an absolute egg. The narrative flipped instantly -- all of the sudden 2004 was viewed as a success for OSU, and Carr lost for the second time in four seasons as a favorite to OSU. This was the game where it really seemed the rivalry flipped.
(4) Michigan lets OSU off the hook in 2005 after it played terribly. We talk how OSU always plays great during the Michigan game. In 2005, that wasn't the case. This may have been OSU's most talented team under Tressel, and they bumbled around for three quarters. Michigan led 21-12 with 6 minutes left and lost.
(5) Crable's hit against Troy Smith. OSU was better than Michigan in 2006. It was clear that Michigan needed help to win that day in Columbus. Yet, we got help in the form of a 4-0 turnover advantage. We appeared poised to get the ball back with four minutes left down 4 with a chance to win. Given the nature of that game, where the offenses dominated, you'd have to had liked our chances. But a reckless play by Crable cost us that shot.
(6) Michigan passes on Les Miles for Rich Rod. I don't think Miles was a tremendous coach. But there is zero doubt in my mind that if we hired Miles in 2007 that we wouldn't have seen nearly the decline that happened under Rich Rod. Miles was coming off a national title and win over Tressel, so there would have been a lot of juice to Michigan hiring Miles. We know he wanted the job. He probably keeps Mallet, hires a competent DC and files a 7-5ish team in year one with a big time recruiting class. By the time Tressel is fired in 2010, Miles likely would have had Michigan in position to win the B1G in the Fickell year and the early Meyer years.
(7) OSU hires Urban. Obviously, this took OSU to another level. Even in Tressel's years, OSU was more of a regional recruiting machine--landing all the top Ohio kids, plucking some top guys out of PA or other midwest states and then occasionally getting a top kid outside the region. Meyer took that to another level.
(8) Michigan passes on Harbaugh for Hoke in 2010. The Jim Harbaugh of the Stanford years was what Michigan needed in 2010. Everyone figured he was coming here in 2010. We all know what happened. Looking back, Michigan missed what in many ways were the peak Harbaugh years (and SF got them). If Michigan hires Harbaugh in 2010, he gets to Michigan before Urban arrives at OSU, and doesn't start out with a 2-3 year recruiting disadvantage. Harbaugh probably wins the B1G in 2011 or 2012, and likely starts his career with an OSU victory.
(9) Michigan blows the 2016 game. Yes, I know Barrett was probably short. But it never should have come to that. Michigan had a 17-7 lead with 2 minutes left in the third and had outgained OSU 254-123 (I looked). Our win expectancy was 90% according to ESPN. Literally, all we had to do was likely make OSU execute two long drives, which seemed unlikely given our defense and Barrett's inability to throw downfield. Instead, we saw Michigan make losing plays. First, Speight with a terrible pick to hand OSU a second TD. Then, in OT, Michigan has Samuel dead to rights on 3rd and 12 and lets him get away so that they're in position to go for it rather than attempt a 50 yard FG for a second OT. Arguably the costliest loss in UM history. IF we win here, Harbaugh takes us to the playoffs in year two and is 1-1 against OSU. Maybe we win the next year since the pressure is squarely on OSU to beat a 8-3 UM team.
(10) The 2018 faceplan in Columbus. People were actually cheering when OSU beat Maryland on an overthrown two point conversion because they arrogantly wanted to win the B1G on the field in Columbus as if it was a given (wouldn't it be great now if we actually won the B1G in 2018 regardless of how it happened, think OSU fans don't count the 1996 B1G title?). We all know what happened that day. But even worse, this game broke Harbaugh. He changed everything. We lost our identity. And now we're further away from OSU than we've ever been since 2001.
Bottom line is 1-17 is the culmination of a lot of bad moves by Michigan independent of OSU cheating. We shouldn't be 12-6, but with better play on the field or better decision off it, Michigan could easily have been 6-12 or 7-11 during an era where OSU was operating at an absolute apex. We have no one to blame but ourselves for the state of this "rivalry".
This offseason provides another inflection point, another opportunity to change direction. Let's hope we get it right this time. We're running out of time.
