I was thinking about the highest leverage players/positions for the team this year. We know we have a loaded team, but who are the guys who, if they were to blow up this year, could just make us almost impossible to beat? I'm not talking about guys like McCarthy, Jenkins, or Colson - stars who are on an identifiable trajectory and are each expected to take the next step. I'm talking about the ones about whom we don't know, yet, what their ceiling is, but if they hit it...
1. Jaylen Harrell
We've seen him develop incrementally over 3 years. We know he has the physical makeup to be both a terrific pass rusher and a full-featured SAM 'backer - a versatile 3-down terror who can get at the QB, pursue in the run game, and cover. If this is the year he puts that all together and reaches something like Shawn Crable levels, with fellow freaks Colson and Hausmann in the linebacking corps... this could be a unit that rivals the 1997 (Gold-Sword-Jones) or 2006 (Burgess-Harris-Crable) linebacker groups.
2. Amorion Walker
We obviously know about his physical profile. Long, fast, and now we have seen he has elite agility and change-of-direction ability. All the raw athletic material of an almost category-changing cornerback. He doesn't even need to be fully actualized yet in his second year. But if his 2023 looks even a little like Will Johnson's 2022... my god, that secondary, with the experienced Paige and Moore behind, and Sainristil in the slot. Mercy.
3. Darrius Clemons
We can feel pretty good about Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, especially with a burgeoning star in Colston Loveland at TE (along with a potentially solid AJ Barner to complement him) and Donovan Edwards, I think, poised to see an expanded role in the passing game. But Johnson and Wilson aren't elite. They're fine, more than adequate within the framework of a team that is still going to dominate on the ground. But neither is going to be confused with Braylon Edwards or David Terrell. However, if Clemons emerges to be that Jameson Williams type who scares the living bejeezus out of opposing safeties with his size and speed... this begins to look like some of those Bama offenses of recent vintage where all you can do is choose HOW you're going to get beat. Clemons is the guy who could nudge this offense from "should be awesome" into "otherworldly, clearly the best in the nation".
***
I was also taking inventory on how many players off this team could be set to be drafted after this season, and the number is... massive. Should be a minimum of 10-12 and could extend into the mid-teens.
When you have that many players who are about to be wearing an NFL helmet... that's when teams win National Championships.
Likely Top 100 Selections
-JJ McCarthy. I have long been bullish on this. Most of the elite guys only need 2 years as a starter. Incredibly, JJ is participating in his first real spring practice now. With a whole offseason to do the S&C work, study film, work with his receivers, and be the team's unquestioned leader, he's poised to go from "very good" to Michigan's first first round QB since Harbaugh in 1987. I think he's a top ten pick.
-Blake Corum. We all know he was probably the Heisman front runner before his injury. Assuming he comes all the way back to what he was, he's likely a second or third round pick.
-Donovan Edwards. Very quietly, Edwards came just 9 yards short of 1000 last season, with a laughable 7.1 yards per carry. He also had 200 receiving yards, and as I alluded to above, he has emerged as such a weapon that we'll probably expand his usage in the passing attack. I think Edwards, like Corum, is a likely second or third rounder.
-Zak Zinter. He was arguably the best OL on a Joe Moore-winning line, and some teams may even see him as having the ability to flex to RT. His college excellence will pop, as will his strength at the Combine. Another in the 2nd-3rd round range - could even slip into the first round with a sparkling season and strong Combine.
-Trevor Keegan. Like Zinter, may be viewed as having tackle flexibility. Like Zinter, probably viewed as an immediate NFL starter, ergo 2nd-3rd round.
-Junior Colson. He's someone who should pop at the Combine, And having played a lot as a freshman and been an every-down player as a sophomore and junior, he has the right number of snaps where things just start to crystallize for linebackers and the game slows down, like for a quarterback. If he takes the expected next step, he could be anywhere from a late first to an early third.
Top 100 If They Blow Up...
-Jaylen Harrell. If Harrell does what I described above, he could be a first round pick. If he follows his current trajectory and just progresses some, he'll maybe go around the middle of the draft.
-LaDarius Henderson. Things are trending towards Henderson being the LT this year (although there's still a lot of competition ahead.) If he excels and works out like Oluwatimi did at center, he could go as high as the 2nd. Of course, if he doesn't or gets hurt, he could be a late-rounder or UFA. Like Harrell, there's a massive range of potential outcomes for Henderson.
-Kris Jenkins. If what we're hearing from spring is more than just a classic March Mirage, Jenkins could be headed for as high as the 2nd round. If he continues apace... probably 3rd-5th.
Mid to Late Rounds
-Makari Paige. Consistently graded out well last season, but he may not be a player who will pop at the Combine with exceptional physical traits. If he stays healthy, he'll have all the college experience he needs. Don't think he goes higher than the 3rd, but if he continues on his current trajectory, decent bet he doesn't go much later than that.
-Karsen Barnhart. Seems to be in pole position to keep his starting position at RT this season. But again, there's also a world where that's in doubt and he enters the portal to play his last year (or maybe two, if he uses the 2020 write-off to come back for a 6th season) somewhere else. Barnhart is an athletic OL, but hasn't been physically dominant, seemingly not able to get much over 300 pounds. He has graded out better at tackle than guard, but his physical profile points more towards being a guard who is asked to pull and get out in space a lot. Assuming he starts this season, he should be draftable and make an NFL roster as a versatile backup, but I don't know if there's Thursday/Friday night upside here.
-Mike Sainristil. If he continues to grow in his second year on defense, he's looking an awful lot like a prototypical NFL nickel. His size would always be a knock on him, but his coverage skills and his willingness to get physical in the run game could see him sneak into the third round. I'd peg him as a 4th rounder give or take a round.
-Cornelius Johnson. A lot depends on just how productive he is this season, and how he tests in Indy. Could be mid-rounds. Could be late round. Probably (but not 100% definitely) draftable.
-Drake Nugent. If he continues his current trajectory, he'll probably be drafted, but his lack of bulk will keep it from being any higher than the later rounds.
You Just Never Know
-Josaiah Stewart. If he is able to translate his productivity from Coastal Carolina (admittedly a big "if") and be a double-digit sack man, and if he's the athletic freak we're hearing he is... he could be a first rounder. Of course, he could struggle to make the adjustment to a new level, not be draftable at all, and be back for a second year at Michigan. Or anything in between.
-Rod Moore. Played so much as a freshman that he probably won't need more experience after this season. Question is his measurables. 6'/185 is about average for an NFL cornerback, small and slight for a safety. And he doesn't appear to be someone whose 40 will blow your hair back. If he has a productive year and continues his current trajectory, and is able to get to around 200 pounds without losing speed, he could be three-and-done and a mid-round pick.
-Michael Barrett. Right now I have him pegged as someone who should get a look in an NFL camp as a UDFA. But hey...someone gets injured, he gets his chance, and makes the most of it... crazier things have happened than Barrett getting drafted in the later rounds. But he's only 6' tall - short for a linebacker - and he's going to be a 24-25 year-old rookie. Both will drag down his value. Can't imagine him higher than the 6th round under the best of circumstances, but I do think an NFL team will give him a look as a backup WILL and willing special teamer.
1. Jaylen Harrell
We've seen him develop incrementally over 3 years. We know he has the physical makeup to be both a terrific pass rusher and a full-featured SAM 'backer - a versatile 3-down terror who can get at the QB, pursue in the run game, and cover. If this is the year he puts that all together and reaches something like Shawn Crable levels, with fellow freaks Colson and Hausmann in the linebacking corps... this could be a unit that rivals the 1997 (Gold-Sword-Jones) or 2006 (Burgess-Harris-Crable) linebacker groups.
2. Amorion Walker
We obviously know about his physical profile. Long, fast, and now we have seen he has elite agility and change-of-direction ability. All the raw athletic material of an almost category-changing cornerback. He doesn't even need to be fully actualized yet in his second year. But if his 2023 looks even a little like Will Johnson's 2022... my god, that secondary, with the experienced Paige and Moore behind, and Sainristil in the slot. Mercy.
3. Darrius Clemons
We can feel pretty good about Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, especially with a burgeoning star in Colston Loveland at TE (along with a potentially solid AJ Barner to complement him) and Donovan Edwards, I think, poised to see an expanded role in the passing game. But Johnson and Wilson aren't elite. They're fine, more than adequate within the framework of a team that is still going to dominate on the ground. But neither is going to be confused with Braylon Edwards or David Terrell. However, if Clemons emerges to be that Jameson Williams type who scares the living bejeezus out of opposing safeties with his size and speed... this begins to look like some of those Bama offenses of recent vintage where all you can do is choose HOW you're going to get beat. Clemons is the guy who could nudge this offense from "should be awesome" into "otherworldly, clearly the best in the nation".
***
I was also taking inventory on how many players off this team could be set to be drafted after this season, and the number is... massive. Should be a minimum of 10-12 and could extend into the mid-teens.
When you have that many players who are about to be wearing an NFL helmet... that's when teams win National Championships.
Likely Top 100 Selections
-JJ McCarthy. I have long been bullish on this. Most of the elite guys only need 2 years as a starter. Incredibly, JJ is participating in his first real spring practice now. With a whole offseason to do the S&C work, study film, work with his receivers, and be the team's unquestioned leader, he's poised to go from "very good" to Michigan's first first round QB since Harbaugh in 1987. I think he's a top ten pick.
-Blake Corum. We all know he was probably the Heisman front runner before his injury. Assuming he comes all the way back to what he was, he's likely a second or third round pick.
-Donovan Edwards. Very quietly, Edwards came just 9 yards short of 1000 last season, with a laughable 7.1 yards per carry. He also had 200 receiving yards, and as I alluded to above, he has emerged as such a weapon that we'll probably expand his usage in the passing attack. I think Edwards, like Corum, is a likely second or third rounder.
-Zak Zinter. He was arguably the best OL on a Joe Moore-winning line, and some teams may even see him as having the ability to flex to RT. His college excellence will pop, as will his strength at the Combine. Another in the 2nd-3rd round range - could even slip into the first round with a sparkling season and strong Combine.
-Trevor Keegan. Like Zinter, may be viewed as having tackle flexibility. Like Zinter, probably viewed as an immediate NFL starter, ergo 2nd-3rd round.
-Junior Colson. He's someone who should pop at the Combine, And having played a lot as a freshman and been an every-down player as a sophomore and junior, he has the right number of snaps where things just start to crystallize for linebackers and the game slows down, like for a quarterback. If he takes the expected next step, he could be anywhere from a late first to an early third.
Top 100 If They Blow Up...
-Jaylen Harrell. If Harrell does what I described above, he could be a first round pick. If he follows his current trajectory and just progresses some, he'll maybe go around the middle of the draft.
-LaDarius Henderson. Things are trending towards Henderson being the LT this year (although there's still a lot of competition ahead.) If he excels and works out like Oluwatimi did at center, he could go as high as the 2nd. Of course, if he doesn't or gets hurt, he could be a late-rounder or UFA. Like Harrell, there's a massive range of potential outcomes for Henderson.
-Kris Jenkins. If what we're hearing from spring is more than just a classic March Mirage, Jenkins could be headed for as high as the 2nd round. If he continues apace... probably 3rd-5th.
Mid to Late Rounds
-Makari Paige. Consistently graded out well last season, but he may not be a player who will pop at the Combine with exceptional physical traits. If he stays healthy, he'll have all the college experience he needs. Don't think he goes higher than the 3rd, but if he continues on his current trajectory, decent bet he doesn't go much later than that.
-Karsen Barnhart. Seems to be in pole position to keep his starting position at RT this season. But again, there's also a world where that's in doubt and he enters the portal to play his last year (or maybe two, if he uses the 2020 write-off to come back for a 6th season) somewhere else. Barnhart is an athletic OL, but hasn't been physically dominant, seemingly not able to get much over 300 pounds. He has graded out better at tackle than guard, but his physical profile points more towards being a guard who is asked to pull and get out in space a lot. Assuming he starts this season, he should be draftable and make an NFL roster as a versatile backup, but I don't know if there's Thursday/Friday night upside here.
-Mike Sainristil. If he continues to grow in his second year on defense, he's looking an awful lot like a prototypical NFL nickel. His size would always be a knock on him, but his coverage skills and his willingness to get physical in the run game could see him sneak into the third round. I'd peg him as a 4th rounder give or take a round.
-Cornelius Johnson. A lot depends on just how productive he is this season, and how he tests in Indy. Could be mid-rounds. Could be late round. Probably (but not 100% definitely) draftable.
-Drake Nugent. If he continues his current trajectory, he'll probably be drafted, but his lack of bulk will keep it from being any higher than the later rounds.
You Just Never Know
-Josaiah Stewart. If he is able to translate his productivity from Coastal Carolina (admittedly a big "if") and be a double-digit sack man, and if he's the athletic freak we're hearing he is... he could be a first rounder. Of course, he could struggle to make the adjustment to a new level, not be draftable at all, and be back for a second year at Michigan. Or anything in between.
-Rod Moore. Played so much as a freshman that he probably won't need more experience after this season. Question is his measurables. 6'/185 is about average for an NFL cornerback, small and slight for a safety. And he doesn't appear to be someone whose 40 will blow your hair back. If he has a productive year and continues his current trajectory, and is able to get to around 200 pounds without losing speed, he could be three-and-done and a mid-round pick.
-Michael Barrett. Right now I have him pegged as someone who should get a look in an NFL camp as a UDFA. But hey...someone gets injured, he gets his chance, and makes the most of it... crazier things have happened than Barrett getting drafted in the later rounds. But he's only 6' tall - short for a linebacker - and he's going to be a 24-25 year-old rookie. Both will drag down his value. Can't imagine him higher than the 6th round under the best of circumstances, but I do think an NFL team will give him a look as a backup WILL and willing special teamer.
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