Well, that was a tough one. Mich had no reason to lose that game you can see on paper. I'm not convinced one bit that MSU is a "better" team than Mich or that Mich was outcoached. At times, yes. At other times, they got the better of Mel Tucker. This is how close games are supposed to go. There is a predictability element to Mich offense in short yardage situations that Sparty didn't have. There were a few BIG calls that went Sparty's way. I'm going to go by half since the two were very different in many ways.
1st half...
Coach Mac needs to have some quick play calls when the opposition goes hurry up. I think after watching this game a couple times, my opinion of MSU scouting of Mich defense is that it was excellent. Literally every issue that has crept up on Mich defense throughout the season was exploited in some fashion by MSU. It is extremely difficult to substitute when the offense doesn't substitute. Mich did a great job containing Walker in the first half with the exception of one play (even that play he was bottled up and made a great individual effort for a TD). The second MSU TD, Mich had several guys running onto the field, weren't lined up, were offsides and had no one on the play side. That's inexcusable for 8 games into the season. The play before that, on a 4th and 1, Gemon Green made a huge mistake. Rather than give the ball to Walker (predictably), Sparty runs a play action fake reverse. Nailor stalks Green long enough to get Green's eyes in the backfield despite the fact he's man to man in 0 coverage. Nailor then releases and Green is caught staring in the backfield. Poor eye discipline. Dax makes a great play catching Nailor before he can score but ultimately in vain because of the substitution error on the next play I discussed. Besides that, it wasn't a terrible half for the Mich defense. A couple missed assignments on backs out of the backfield but 2 INTs and what should've been a sack, fumble, TD (more on that in a second).
The officiating...pathetic. That's really the best word I have. It's not an excuse to call something bad that was legitimately bad. Anthony's holding call inside the 5 was pretty weak and CJ was stepping out of bounds as the ref reached for his flag. It had nothing to do with the outcome of the play but ok...this is the most mild critique. There is a great freeze frame that will show Walker flicking the ball as he crosses the goal line. This is a fumble. Not a great angle. How this is 2021 and there isn't a camera angle down the goal line from both sides is beyond me. This should've been called a fumble on Walker's stupidity alone. Even he thought the ball was out. Nevertheless, refs said the call stands...which makes this next play even worse. How you rule Thorne down with control of the ball when he never had control of the ball after Ojabo hit him? The ball is coming loose and Thorne tries to pin it against his body but he never has control of it. Then, there is no definitive angle to say he has possession much less that his shin was down at any point with possession. This is inexcusable and the announcers were all over it. That took a TD off the board for Mich. It's not just the fact that they took points off. There is a big difference between 23-14 and 27-14. Score aside, there's a big mental difference between those two scores and the fact Mich would've had a defensive TD on the board. Instead, Sparty gets to punt and kicks a ball from their end zone to Mich 28 yard line. Mich goes and gets a FG but the lack of time prevents Mich from running a lot of plays over the middle that had been successful for them til that point.
The offense. Cade, wow. This is what I've been waiting to see from him. He was absolutely money on third down, was decisive and saw the field extremely well, with a couple exceptions, particularly on the final drive right before the half (he missed Corum twice right in the middle of the field for first downs). Instead, two low percentage fades, one to Anthony and one to CJ. Beyond that, one helluva half from him. That was a great drive, though. JJ's throw to Anthony for Mich second TD was something. Great route by Andrel, an anticipatory throw from JJ and a great catch. My only real critique of the offense in the first half is predictability in certain situations (this is largely what led to FGs on earlier drives). MSU was very good at run action fakes in run situations (there is a difference between run action and play action). They used this to take advantage of Mich defense overcommitting. Mich did not do the same. Part of this is Mich's "identity." They are predictable because they want to be. They want you to know they are running and run it at you anyway. Mich could have just as much success as Sparty with some mild tweaks. Still, I'm not going to argue with how productive the offense was this half with 333 total yards (252 passing, 2TDs and 23 points). JJ looked pretty good in extended time on one of Mich's drives that ended in a FG but I'm pretty sure JJ missed Anthony one on one with a safety playing off coverage. He was taken out right after this and Coach Weiss was talking to him right away on the sideline pointing at the replay board. Without a different angle, I'm not sure but it looked that way to me. Corum...gotta catch it first.
2nd half...
Let's talk self-inflicted unforced errors.
Defense. Substitutions...again. Alignment issues...again. Walker's 4th and 5th TDs. His 4th one is a horrible effort by Ross. I'm not sure what he was seeing here but he gets blocked and his blocker literally stands straight up and does nothing after that. He has to get off that block. Barrett (or whoever 32 is these days) does the exact same thing, gets blocked by a TE and doesn't get off to make a play. Poor angle by Hawkins and Walker is gone. Just prior to this, Moten drops a pick that goes right through his hands. You have to make that play in a big moment like this.
Important to note, prior to this, Walker probably doesn't get a chance to make this play if Morris doesn't jump offsides on a 3rd and 8 to make it 3rd and short where Walker picks up a 1st down from the wildcat, then another illegal substitution. His 5th TD, I'm pretty sure I could've scored on this play. Simple zone read, Ojabo stays home and Thorne gives inside. Good seal on the back side and Ross doesn't get over the top of the blocks. Moten takes a poor angle this time and he absolutely has to make this play. Hawkins is a non-factor due to the action coming his way.
Prior to this, you started to get a sense Sparty wanted this one a bit more. Down 16 and backed up, Reed overpowers 3 Mich defenders who had him stopped 2 yards short of a 1st on a 3rd and long and he manages to get it. Hayward makes a similar play on a 3rd and medium right after this where he reaches the ball out for a first with Ross all over him. Their first drive of the 4th quarter, Sparty has two reviews go their way when Reed makes two great catches, one on the sideline and one on a ball thrown very short. Both went for first downs. Mich defense didn't make plays when they had opportunities and penalties when the had Sparty on the ropes. Down 16, Sparty not only goes on 2 TD drives but get 2pt conversions to erase that lead in two possessions. Tough pill to swallow.
Offense. Even with the pick late, pretty heroic effort by Cade. Sparty was really playing with their backs against the wall and started selling out with pressures. Lots of pressures by DBs, particularly corners. Cade hung in there. Some huge throws in critical moments. For the "he can't complete a pass over 20 yards" crowd, Cade hears you and will raise you one 45 yard dime on 3rd and 8 in a tied game to Mikey on a corner route in the 4th qtr. This drive leads to a FG but in the three plays leading up to that JJ fumbles a ball Mich was fortunate to be kicked out of bounds by an MSU player. On this 3rd down play, there was a lot of contact but no call when Cade tried to find Henning in the end zone.
JJ's second fumble. I don't have a problem with this, either way. JJ has handed the ball off how many times in his football career? His first fumble I thought was evidence of "too big of a moment," putting the ball on the ground in FG range in a tied game in the 4th is the one thing you cannot do besides throw a pick. If Cade was "working through something" ok but this fumble is HUGE. Anyone who tries to say that Mich had opportunities before this, true, but when you try to show where the wheels came off, this is it. Mich was leading, then they weren't after this. That's what really mattered here.
Regardless, on Mich's first play after this Cade has CJ streaking down the sideline. The ball is underthrown but CJ absolutely has to make this catch. With no contact, it hits him in the middle of the "6." I don't want to hear from anyone that "oh, well, the ball was underthrown." That's total bullshit. Find me a MSU receiver who was dropping this pass in this situation and I'll show you someone who wasn't on the field. Reed or Nailor, both come down with this ball and both came up with several more poorly thrown balls than this one in key moments. CJ then drops a 3rd down throw when he takes a big hit but that ball was coming out well before that. Great throw to Mikey on 4th down from Cade. CJ gets held on a 4th down later this drive that wasn't called. Defense gets a huge 3 and out to give them one more drive. MSU gives Mich a gift with a horrible 15 yard late hit on Cade. Cade got baited on this pick. Corner was playing an underneath zone but was more than willing to give up the underneath route. It was a good throw by Cade, high to the TE on a corner but a better play by the CB with a one handed pick. Game over.
The way forward...
There's nothing I saw today to make me think Sparty was the "better team." They play again and I would still pick Mich to win. Mich definitely looks like a better team than PSU but the game is in Happy Valley. If the offense continues to play like they did, they could give anyone fits, including OSU. Mich still controls a lot of their own fate. I doubt MSU runs the table. They may (in which case good on them) but I don't see that happening. Mich certainly can enter "The Game" 10-1. They will give the committee something to think about if they can find a way to beat OSU unless MSU wins the B1G undefeated. A 33-37 road loss to a legit top-10 team isn't going to kill their season. Regroup and get to OSU 10-1...if the outcome were a foregone conclusion, they wouldn't play the game. Go Blue.
1st half...
Coach Mac needs to have some quick play calls when the opposition goes hurry up. I think after watching this game a couple times, my opinion of MSU scouting of Mich defense is that it was excellent. Literally every issue that has crept up on Mich defense throughout the season was exploited in some fashion by MSU. It is extremely difficult to substitute when the offense doesn't substitute. Mich did a great job containing Walker in the first half with the exception of one play (even that play he was bottled up and made a great individual effort for a TD). The second MSU TD, Mich had several guys running onto the field, weren't lined up, were offsides and had no one on the play side. That's inexcusable for 8 games into the season. The play before that, on a 4th and 1, Gemon Green made a huge mistake. Rather than give the ball to Walker (predictably), Sparty runs a play action fake reverse. Nailor stalks Green long enough to get Green's eyes in the backfield despite the fact he's man to man in 0 coverage. Nailor then releases and Green is caught staring in the backfield. Poor eye discipline. Dax makes a great play catching Nailor before he can score but ultimately in vain because of the substitution error on the next play I discussed. Besides that, it wasn't a terrible half for the Mich defense. A couple missed assignments on backs out of the backfield but 2 INTs and what should've been a sack, fumble, TD (more on that in a second).
The officiating...pathetic. That's really the best word I have. It's not an excuse to call something bad that was legitimately bad. Anthony's holding call inside the 5 was pretty weak and CJ was stepping out of bounds as the ref reached for his flag. It had nothing to do with the outcome of the play but ok...this is the most mild critique. There is a great freeze frame that will show Walker flicking the ball as he crosses the goal line. This is a fumble. Not a great angle. How this is 2021 and there isn't a camera angle down the goal line from both sides is beyond me. This should've been called a fumble on Walker's stupidity alone. Even he thought the ball was out. Nevertheless, refs said the call stands...which makes this next play even worse. How you rule Thorne down with control of the ball when he never had control of the ball after Ojabo hit him? The ball is coming loose and Thorne tries to pin it against his body but he never has control of it. Then, there is no definitive angle to say he has possession much less that his shin was down at any point with possession. This is inexcusable and the announcers were all over it. That took a TD off the board for Mich. It's not just the fact that they took points off. There is a big difference between 23-14 and 27-14. Score aside, there's a big mental difference between those two scores and the fact Mich would've had a defensive TD on the board. Instead, Sparty gets to punt and kicks a ball from their end zone to Mich 28 yard line. Mich goes and gets a FG but the lack of time prevents Mich from running a lot of plays over the middle that had been successful for them til that point.
The offense. Cade, wow. This is what I've been waiting to see from him. He was absolutely money on third down, was decisive and saw the field extremely well, with a couple exceptions, particularly on the final drive right before the half (he missed Corum twice right in the middle of the field for first downs). Instead, two low percentage fades, one to Anthony and one to CJ. Beyond that, one helluva half from him. That was a great drive, though. JJ's throw to Anthony for Mich second TD was something. Great route by Andrel, an anticipatory throw from JJ and a great catch. My only real critique of the offense in the first half is predictability in certain situations (this is largely what led to FGs on earlier drives). MSU was very good at run action fakes in run situations (there is a difference between run action and play action). They used this to take advantage of Mich defense overcommitting. Mich did not do the same. Part of this is Mich's "identity." They are predictable because they want to be. They want you to know they are running and run it at you anyway. Mich could have just as much success as Sparty with some mild tweaks. Still, I'm not going to argue with how productive the offense was this half with 333 total yards (252 passing, 2TDs and 23 points). JJ looked pretty good in extended time on one of Mich's drives that ended in a FG but I'm pretty sure JJ missed Anthony one on one with a safety playing off coverage. He was taken out right after this and Coach Weiss was talking to him right away on the sideline pointing at the replay board. Without a different angle, I'm not sure but it looked that way to me. Corum...gotta catch it first.
2nd half...
Let's talk self-inflicted unforced errors.
Defense. Substitutions...again. Alignment issues...again. Walker's 4th and 5th TDs. His 4th one is a horrible effort by Ross. I'm not sure what he was seeing here but he gets blocked and his blocker literally stands straight up and does nothing after that. He has to get off that block. Barrett (or whoever 32 is these days) does the exact same thing, gets blocked by a TE and doesn't get off to make a play. Poor angle by Hawkins and Walker is gone. Just prior to this, Moten drops a pick that goes right through his hands. You have to make that play in a big moment like this.
Important to note, prior to this, Walker probably doesn't get a chance to make this play if Morris doesn't jump offsides on a 3rd and 8 to make it 3rd and short where Walker picks up a 1st down from the wildcat, then another illegal substitution. His 5th TD, I'm pretty sure I could've scored on this play. Simple zone read, Ojabo stays home and Thorne gives inside. Good seal on the back side and Ross doesn't get over the top of the blocks. Moten takes a poor angle this time and he absolutely has to make this play. Hawkins is a non-factor due to the action coming his way.
Prior to this, you started to get a sense Sparty wanted this one a bit more. Down 16 and backed up, Reed overpowers 3 Mich defenders who had him stopped 2 yards short of a 1st on a 3rd and long and he manages to get it. Hayward makes a similar play on a 3rd and medium right after this where he reaches the ball out for a first with Ross all over him. Their first drive of the 4th quarter, Sparty has two reviews go their way when Reed makes two great catches, one on the sideline and one on a ball thrown very short. Both went for first downs. Mich defense didn't make plays when they had opportunities and penalties when the had Sparty on the ropes. Down 16, Sparty not only goes on 2 TD drives but get 2pt conversions to erase that lead in two possessions. Tough pill to swallow.
Offense. Even with the pick late, pretty heroic effort by Cade. Sparty was really playing with their backs against the wall and started selling out with pressures. Lots of pressures by DBs, particularly corners. Cade hung in there. Some huge throws in critical moments. For the "he can't complete a pass over 20 yards" crowd, Cade hears you and will raise you one 45 yard dime on 3rd and 8 in a tied game to Mikey on a corner route in the 4th qtr. This drive leads to a FG but in the three plays leading up to that JJ fumbles a ball Mich was fortunate to be kicked out of bounds by an MSU player. On this 3rd down play, there was a lot of contact but no call when Cade tried to find Henning in the end zone.
JJ's second fumble. I don't have a problem with this, either way. JJ has handed the ball off how many times in his football career? His first fumble I thought was evidence of "too big of a moment," putting the ball on the ground in FG range in a tied game in the 4th is the one thing you cannot do besides throw a pick. If Cade was "working through something" ok but this fumble is HUGE. Anyone who tries to say that Mich had opportunities before this, true, but when you try to show where the wheels came off, this is it. Mich was leading, then they weren't after this. That's what really mattered here.
Regardless, on Mich's first play after this Cade has CJ streaking down the sideline. The ball is underthrown but CJ absolutely has to make this catch. With no contact, it hits him in the middle of the "6." I don't want to hear from anyone that "oh, well, the ball was underthrown." That's total bullshit. Find me a MSU receiver who was dropping this pass in this situation and I'll show you someone who wasn't on the field. Reed or Nailor, both come down with this ball and both came up with several more poorly thrown balls than this one in key moments. CJ then drops a 3rd down throw when he takes a big hit but that ball was coming out well before that. Great throw to Mikey on 4th down from Cade. CJ gets held on a 4th down later this drive that wasn't called. Defense gets a huge 3 and out to give them one more drive. MSU gives Mich a gift with a horrible 15 yard late hit on Cade. Cade got baited on this pick. Corner was playing an underneath zone but was more than willing to give up the underneath route. It was a good throw by Cade, high to the TE on a corner but a better play by the CB with a one handed pick. Game over.
The way forward...
There's nothing I saw today to make me think Sparty was the "better team." They play again and I would still pick Mich to win. Mich definitely looks like a better team than PSU but the game is in Happy Valley. If the offense continues to play like they did, they could give anyone fits, including OSU. Mich still controls a lot of their own fate. I doubt MSU runs the table. They may (in which case good on them) but I don't see that happening. Mich certainly can enter "The Game" 10-1. They will give the committee something to think about if they can find a way to beat OSU unless MSU wins the B1G undefeated. A 33-37 road loss to a legit top-10 team isn't going to kill their season. Regroup and get to OSU 10-1...if the outcome were a foregone conclusion, they wouldn't play the game. Go Blue.
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