Final thoughts on the 2015-16 while sitting here at the Barclay’s Center watching Iowa play Villanova in a round of 32 game … lots of empty seats that would have been filled by Michigan fans.
Despite what the play-by-play guys might have told you, this was a heavy pro-Michigan crowd Friday night when the Wolverines played Notre Dame. It would have been electric in here and just an unbelievable atmosphere … and it wasn’t meant to be. KenPom.com had the Wolverines an 85 percent chance to win the game up 41-29 at the half, but U-M looked – well, like the team we saw too much all year in the second half in giving it back.
Most coaches you’ll talk to say the first four minutes of the second half are critical in a game. U-M gave back most of its lead then, and though it wasn’t only on him, redshirt sophomore Duncan Robinson gave up five points on a blow-by and a late closeout after he played focused in the first half.
A dogfight ensued when the Fighting Irish switched to man-to-man defense and made it tough for the Wolverines to get good looks.
“I think they amped up their pressure, denying the wings, and wouldn’t really let me get the ball,” junior Zak Irvin said. “They got us out of rhythm to start the second half.”
Notre Dame only scored 29 points in the first half despite shooting well. The Wolverines played the gaps well, forced a lot of turnovers (many were unforced, too) and looked better than they had much of the year.
That was an anomaly. U-M struggled on defense all year, and as head coach John Beilein stated in the postgame, whether it’s scheme, philosophy, personnel, whatever, that needs to change. You can win champions with offense (most title teams are among the elite offensively, so the “defense wins championships” mantra doesn’t really apply), and Beilein noted at the end of the year that this team was giving up 45.5 percent field goals … the same as the Final Four team.
That team was also elite offensively. This team wasn’t. Michigan is a squad that relies heavily on possession basketball (no turnovers, etc.), and even when the offense stunk in the second half, the Wolverines were right there at the end with a chance to win … and could have with a few more stops.
Expect some changes in this area in the offseason, and more of an emphasis on it. This was a bad defensive basketball team, and it needs to be fixed.
“I mentioned that a little bit to them – we’ve got to now take this loss, the ups and downs of this season and take it into the offseason, say, ‘I’ve got to do these things better’ … individual defense, post defense, just how we approach a pick up game,” Beilein said. “We’ve got to get a whole lot better.
“We have to develop a culture of kids doing better in the offseason. We’ve got to get back to them really understanding how much work they have to do without overdoing it in the summer, as we’ve discussed.”
Otherwise you develop a culture of complacency, something guys like Zack Novak, Darius Morris and Trey Burke worked so hard to change. Junior Mark Donnal needs to live in the weight room and develop some strength and definition on his body. Sophomore Aubrey Dawkins needs to show that it’s important to him and concentrate on rotations, etc., rather than launching 25-foot triples and working on the highlight reel dunks.
And they all need to hold each other accountable.
As for the offense … the second half Thursday looked too much like many of the other games in which the Wolverines struggled in the halfcourt this year.
“They shut down some of our stuff. They wouldn’t let us make catches, and then we did not react quickly enough to it,” Beilein said. “We’ve got to be able to backdoor … they threw us into a tizzy. All of a sudden we couldn’t make a shot because it took us out of our rhythm, and frankly, teams had not done it this year. Mike [Brey] had not done that a great deal, so he came out with a great coaching move. We did not react well to it.”
And Beilein was clearly frustrated by it during the game. He recruits players for IQ as much as skill, and this team has come along much more slowly than anyone anticipated in terms of picking things up, etc. He also admitted he needed to spend some time in the offseason adjusting to the 30-second shot clock. His team was often lacking that one more action that might have gotten them open looks.
At the same time, the offense seemed far too labored far too often the entire year, and there were too many times they had no answer. The ball screen offense with guys not great at using a ball screen resulted in several shot clock situations (and some violations), forced shots, shots blocked at the rim, etc.
Only sophomore Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman is a legit, consistent finisher at the rim, and he’s still got a long way to go in seeing the floor. Junior point guard Derrick Walton had a hard time just getting there, and Irvin lacks some of the explosion he had at the end of last season. The six inches in elevation he lost due to back surgery … well, he needs to get it back.
“Walton, Irvin and Abdur-Rahkman are all very average using ball screens,” one coach we know said during a recent conversation. “I’d still like to see them toss it in the post once in a while … not as their primary, but on occasion. There were a couple times [sophomore] Ricky Doyle rolled and posted Bonzie Colson, coming back late from a hedge, but they refused to put it down there.
“Doyle has issues, but if he touches it five feet out with his back to the basket, he can do some damage.”
It could well be a trust issue, since Doyle has had trouble simply catching the ball this year. The hope is that a guy like Moritz Wagner will blossom next year and become the starter (he should) after a year in the weight room, and the light will go on for one of the other bigs – whichever ones are still on the roster. It seems obvious at this point that there will be attrition at this position.
What we learned this year, too, is that taking the next step isn’t a given for any player. We assumed Dawkins could be a star, expected sophomores Doyle and Kam Chatman to take the next step and become solid contributors. Doyle regressed, and Chatman, other than the one big shot against Indiana, didn’t look much different than last year. When seniors Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert went down with injuries – and yes, both players would have made a huge difference on this team – they were scrambling again.
There would have been a lot more open looks with their two best assist guys on the floor. Quality depth was clearly an issue.
“I think we’ll have more depth next year. We have three players coming in that were all-Ohio,” Beilein said. “The state of Ohio plays good basketball, including Mr. Basketball [point guard Xavier Simpson]. There are some guys coming in that will give us help and we have some guys that will improve a great deal. I know they will.
“This hurts us all. They will work at it like we had a bad season, which we didn’t. They’ll have a chip on their shoulder after this loss.”
The coaches should, too. Beilein’s teams have generally been very good offensively, but it was off this year. The adjustments he made against Indiana, for example – some backdoor plays early when it was clear the Hoosiers were going to overplay the shooters again (and looking at Indiana now, that win was very impressive) – we’d have expected him to have better answers against some of the other teams on the schedule, too.
There were learning moments for him, too.
The bottom line, though – this team took a step forward, and expectations should be higher next year. Wagner is a rising star, and if he gets stronger and stays out of foul trouble, he’s going to be a monster. He’s got great instincts and energy.
Redshirt sophomore Duncan Robinson is going to be a 50-percent three-point shooter, and he showed at times that he can be more than just a shooter, too. He’ll never have Nik Stauskas’ ballhandling ability, but he can get to the rim a bit. He needs to work on his pull-up, midrange game, but he’ll be All-Big Ten before he’s done here.
Abdur-Rahkman continues to improve, and frosh point guard Xavier Simpson has some Trey Burke qualities, including some swagger, an ability to break down a defender and a hatred of losing that will be much needed.
There’s plenty to work with on this roster for the next few years. But next year depends on the juniors taking another step. Walton and Irvin are the leaders, and they need to be better and much more consistent.
They can be – so can the team, which has the pieces to do some damage. Expecting them to contend in a Big Ten in which there will be a lot of player turnover on other teams isn’t too much to ask.
Despite what the play-by-play guys might have told you, this was a heavy pro-Michigan crowd Friday night when the Wolverines played Notre Dame. It would have been electric in here and just an unbelievable atmosphere … and it wasn’t meant to be. KenPom.com had the Wolverines an 85 percent chance to win the game up 41-29 at the half, but U-M looked – well, like the team we saw too much all year in the second half in giving it back.
Most coaches you’ll talk to say the first four minutes of the second half are critical in a game. U-M gave back most of its lead then, and though it wasn’t only on him, redshirt sophomore Duncan Robinson gave up five points on a blow-by and a late closeout after he played focused in the first half.
A dogfight ensued when the Fighting Irish switched to man-to-man defense and made it tough for the Wolverines to get good looks.
“I think they amped up their pressure, denying the wings, and wouldn’t really let me get the ball,” junior Zak Irvin said. “They got us out of rhythm to start the second half.”
Notre Dame only scored 29 points in the first half despite shooting well. The Wolverines played the gaps well, forced a lot of turnovers (many were unforced, too) and looked better than they had much of the year.
That was an anomaly. U-M struggled on defense all year, and as head coach John Beilein stated in the postgame, whether it’s scheme, philosophy, personnel, whatever, that needs to change. You can win champions with offense (most title teams are among the elite offensively, so the “defense wins championships” mantra doesn’t really apply), and Beilein noted at the end of the year that this team was giving up 45.5 percent field goals … the same as the Final Four team.
That team was also elite offensively. This team wasn’t. Michigan is a squad that relies heavily on possession basketball (no turnovers, etc.), and even when the offense stunk in the second half, the Wolverines were right there at the end with a chance to win … and could have with a few more stops.
Expect some changes in this area in the offseason, and more of an emphasis on it. This was a bad defensive basketball team, and it needs to be fixed.
“I mentioned that a little bit to them – we’ve got to now take this loss, the ups and downs of this season and take it into the offseason, say, ‘I’ve got to do these things better’ … individual defense, post defense, just how we approach a pick up game,” Beilein said. “We’ve got to get a whole lot better.
“We have to develop a culture of kids doing better in the offseason. We’ve got to get back to them really understanding how much work they have to do without overdoing it in the summer, as we’ve discussed.”
Otherwise you develop a culture of complacency, something guys like Zack Novak, Darius Morris and Trey Burke worked so hard to change. Junior Mark Donnal needs to live in the weight room and develop some strength and definition on his body. Sophomore Aubrey Dawkins needs to show that it’s important to him and concentrate on rotations, etc., rather than launching 25-foot triples and working on the highlight reel dunks.
And they all need to hold each other accountable.
As for the offense … the second half Thursday looked too much like many of the other games in which the Wolverines struggled in the halfcourt this year.
“They shut down some of our stuff. They wouldn’t let us make catches, and then we did not react quickly enough to it,” Beilein said. “We’ve got to be able to backdoor … they threw us into a tizzy. All of a sudden we couldn’t make a shot because it took us out of our rhythm, and frankly, teams had not done it this year. Mike [Brey] had not done that a great deal, so he came out with a great coaching move. We did not react well to it.”
And Beilein was clearly frustrated by it during the game. He recruits players for IQ as much as skill, and this team has come along much more slowly than anyone anticipated in terms of picking things up, etc. He also admitted he needed to spend some time in the offseason adjusting to the 30-second shot clock. His team was often lacking that one more action that might have gotten them open looks.
At the same time, the offense seemed far too labored far too often the entire year, and there were too many times they had no answer. The ball screen offense with guys not great at using a ball screen resulted in several shot clock situations (and some violations), forced shots, shots blocked at the rim, etc.
Only sophomore Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman is a legit, consistent finisher at the rim, and he’s still got a long way to go in seeing the floor. Junior point guard Derrick Walton had a hard time just getting there, and Irvin lacks some of the explosion he had at the end of last season. The six inches in elevation he lost due to back surgery … well, he needs to get it back.
“Walton, Irvin and Abdur-Rahkman are all very average using ball screens,” one coach we know said during a recent conversation. “I’d still like to see them toss it in the post once in a while … not as their primary, but on occasion. There were a couple times [sophomore] Ricky Doyle rolled and posted Bonzie Colson, coming back late from a hedge, but they refused to put it down there.
“Doyle has issues, but if he touches it five feet out with his back to the basket, he can do some damage.”
It could well be a trust issue, since Doyle has had trouble simply catching the ball this year. The hope is that a guy like Moritz Wagner will blossom next year and become the starter (he should) after a year in the weight room, and the light will go on for one of the other bigs – whichever ones are still on the roster. It seems obvious at this point that there will be attrition at this position.
What we learned this year, too, is that taking the next step isn’t a given for any player. We assumed Dawkins could be a star, expected sophomores Doyle and Kam Chatman to take the next step and become solid contributors. Doyle regressed, and Chatman, other than the one big shot against Indiana, didn’t look much different than last year. When seniors Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert went down with injuries – and yes, both players would have made a huge difference on this team – they were scrambling again.
There would have been a lot more open looks with their two best assist guys on the floor. Quality depth was clearly an issue.
“I think we’ll have more depth next year. We have three players coming in that were all-Ohio,” Beilein said. “The state of Ohio plays good basketball, including Mr. Basketball [point guard Xavier Simpson]. There are some guys coming in that will give us help and we have some guys that will improve a great deal. I know they will.
“This hurts us all. They will work at it like we had a bad season, which we didn’t. They’ll have a chip on their shoulder after this loss.”
The coaches should, too. Beilein’s teams have generally been very good offensively, but it was off this year. The adjustments he made against Indiana, for example – some backdoor plays early when it was clear the Hoosiers were going to overplay the shooters again (and looking at Indiana now, that win was very impressive) – we’d have expected him to have better answers against some of the other teams on the schedule, too.
There were learning moments for him, too.
The bottom line, though – this team took a step forward, and expectations should be higher next year. Wagner is a rising star, and if he gets stronger and stays out of foul trouble, he’s going to be a monster. He’s got great instincts and energy.
Redshirt sophomore Duncan Robinson is going to be a 50-percent three-point shooter, and he showed at times that he can be more than just a shooter, too. He’ll never have Nik Stauskas’ ballhandling ability, but he can get to the rim a bit. He needs to work on his pull-up, midrange game, but he’ll be All-Big Ten before he’s done here.
Abdur-Rahkman continues to improve, and frosh point guard Xavier Simpson has some Trey Burke qualities, including some swagger, an ability to break down a defender and a hatred of losing that will be much needed.
There’s plenty to work with on this roster for the next few years. But next year depends on the juniors taking another step. Walton and Irvin are the leaders, and they need to be better and much more consistent.
They can be – so can the team, which has the pieces to do some damage. Expecting them to contend in a Big Ten in which there will be a lot of player turnover on other teams isn’t too much to ask.
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