The Punchline: PSU has still not played top competition yet. Michigan is beating similar and better teams by larger margins. I like Michigan's chances in Happy Valley.
Obviously the October 21st matchup between Michigan and Penn State in Happy Valley is going to be a HUGE game for both teams. It is also going to be one of the biggest games of the year in college football. Hype will be tremendous. I assume both teams will remain unbeaten. The biggest obstacle is PSU game at Northwestern (where I will have 50-yd line seats, row 1 upper deck)
BEST WINS
This analysis is what I call BEST WINS. The idea is that we learn how good a team is by examining how well they performed against their toughest opponents. I don’t include weak teams because I don’t see the point of arguing whether PSU should have beaten Akron by 50 or 55 points.
How this works
Obviously the October 21st matchup between Michigan and Penn State in Happy Valley is going to be a HUGE game for both teams. It is also going to be one of the biggest games of the year in college football. Hype will be tremendous. I assume both teams will remain unbeaten. The biggest obstacle is PSU game at Northwestern (where I will have 50-yd line seats, row 1 upper deck)
BEST WINS
This analysis is what I call BEST WINS. The idea is that we learn how good a team is by examining how well they performed against their toughest opponents. I don’t include weak teams because I don’t see the point of arguing whether PSU should have beaten Akron by 50 or 55 points.
How this works
- Start with the Actual Point Spread of the final score of the game
- Adjust for Home Field Advantage H.F.A. (playing on the road is a positive, @ Home is a negative)
- To arrive at Neutral Field Point Adjusted Spread
- Add the Power Rating strength of the opponent (Sagarin)
- Equals the implied Power Rating strength of PSU or Michigan on that day
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