I apologize for the length and detail in this post. I'm showing my work.
HEADLINE: Michigan has demonstrated a measurably better offense, a measurably better defense playing a measurably tougher schedule than MSU
It is enough of the difference to overcome Spartans Home Field Advantage
The Big News: Michigan can and will run the ball on MSU. MSU will struggle to run the ball
The Wild Cards (as always): Big Explosive Plays + Turnovers + Special teams
If we TIE them in these three categories we will WIN because we are the better team
Michigan has a better Defense
Michigan (14.3ppg) has the 2nd best scoring defense in the NCAA (Georgia #1)
Michigan State (18.7ppg) has the 20th best scoring defense
Michigan (42nd toughest) has played a more difficult schedule than Michigan State (56th toughest)
Michigan Top 5 Opponents: @Wisconsin, @Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers
MSU Top 5 Opponents: @Miami, @Indiana @Northwestern, Nebraska, @Rutgers
Michigan has a significantly better RUSHING defense
Michigan held their top 5 opponents to 56% of their average yards / game (No opponent reached their season average)
Michigan State held their top 5 opponents to 77% of average yards / game (Indiana exceeded their season Average)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Michigan has a significantly better PASSING defense
Michigan held their top 5 opponents to 95% of their average yards / game (Washington & Wisconsin exceeded their season average)
Michigan State held their top 5 opponents to 118% of average yards / game (Rutgers, Miami and Northwestern exceeded their season average)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Michigan has a better Offense
Michigan (37.7) has the 15th best scoring offense in the NCAA
Michigan State (34.3) has the 29th best scoring offense in the NCAA
Michigan (42nd toughest) has played a more difficult schedule than Michigan State (56th toughest)
Michigan has a significantly better RUSHING offense
Michigan vs their top 5 opponents has rushed for 156% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan exceeded the average for each of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan State vs their top 5 opponents has rushed for 109% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan State exceeded the average for 3 of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Michigan State has a significantly better PASSING offense
Michigan vs their top 5 opponents has passed for 95% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan exceeded the average for 2 of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan State vs their top 5 opponents has rushed for 118% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan State exceeded the average for 3 of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Total Defense
Michigan held top 5 opponents to 77% of their average total yards / game
Michigan State held top 5 opponents to 102% of their average total yards / game
Total Offense
Michigan vs top 5 opponents produced 129% of the average total yards / game their opponents yielded
Michigan State vs top 5 opponents produced 96% of the average total yards / game their opponents yielded
HEADLINE: Michigan has demonstrated a measurably better offense, a measurably better defense playing a measurably tougher schedule than MSU
It is enough of the difference to overcome Spartans Home Field Advantage
The Big News: Michigan can and will run the ball on MSU. MSU will struggle to run the ball
The Wild Cards (as always): Big Explosive Plays + Turnovers + Special teams
If we TIE them in these three categories we will WIN because we are the better team
Michigan has a better Defense
Michigan (14.3ppg) has the 2nd best scoring defense in the NCAA (Georgia #1)
Michigan State (18.7ppg) has the 20th best scoring defense
Michigan (42nd toughest) has played a more difficult schedule than Michigan State (56th toughest)
Michigan Top 5 Opponents: @Wisconsin, @Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers
MSU Top 5 Opponents: @Miami, @Indiana @Northwestern, Nebraska, @Rutgers
Michigan has a significantly better RUSHING defense
Michigan held their top 5 opponents to 56% of their average yards / game (No opponent reached their season average)
Michigan State held their top 5 opponents to 77% of average yards / game (Indiana exceeded their season Average)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Michigan has a significantly better PASSING defense
Michigan held their top 5 opponents to 95% of their average yards / game (Washington & Wisconsin exceeded their season average)
Michigan State held their top 5 opponents to 118% of average yards / game (Rutgers, Miami and Northwestern exceeded their season average)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Michigan has a better Offense
Michigan (37.7) has the 15th best scoring offense in the NCAA
Michigan State (34.3) has the 29th best scoring offense in the NCAA
Michigan (42nd toughest) has played a more difficult schedule than Michigan State (56th toughest)
Michigan has a significantly better RUSHING offense
Michigan vs their top 5 opponents has rushed for 156% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan exceeded the average for each of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan State vs their top 5 opponents has rushed for 109% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan State exceeded the average for 3 of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Michigan State has a significantly better PASSING offense
Michigan vs their top 5 opponents has passed for 95% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan exceeded the average for 2 of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan State vs their top 5 opponents has rushed for 118% of the average yards / game their opponents allowed (Michigan State exceeded the average for 3 of their top 5 opponents)
Michigan's top 5 opponents are better than MSU's top 5 opponents
Total Defense
Michigan held top 5 opponents to 77% of their average total yards / game
Michigan State held top 5 opponents to 102% of their average total yards / game
Total Offense
Michigan vs top 5 opponents produced 129% of the average total yards / game their opponents yielded
Michigan State vs top 5 opponents produced 96% of the average total yards / game their opponents yielded
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