How Many Point will OSU Score?
You learn the most about teams when you look at their performances against the best or similar competitors
Comparisons
Michigan has a great scoring defense (4th nationally). The two best defenses OSU has faced were Michigan State (17th) and Penn State (31st)
@ MSU: 26 points, 347 yds, 21 1st dns
@ PSU: 27 points, 389 yds, 21 1st dns
MSU defense gave up 39% more than season average to OSU
PSU defense gave up 26% more than season average to OSU
Pretty similar
Neither of them is as strong as Michigan AND OSU played them both on the ROAD (big deal)
What About Against Michigan?
Adjust for Defense: If Michigan gave up 139% of their season average (13.5) that would be 18.8
Adjust for Home Field Difference: THEN generously add 6 points to the Offense for the difference between playing in very hostile Happy Valley/East Landfill vs playing in the very friendly Horseshoe and you get 24-25 points. (Edit: adjusted HFA to split between Off & Def)
Reason Check: The best offense the Michigan defense played against was @ ND, which scored 24 points on this defense. The ND season scoring average is about 7 points less than OSU. That suggests 31 points. However, OSU offense is playing worse then earlier in the season.
Conclusion: Conservatively, OSU will score 25 to 28 points vs this Michigan defense. I don't see anything north of 30 points being very likely, The lower end of the spectrum (~24-26 points) is more likely.
You learn the most about teams when you look at their performances against the best or similar competitors
Comparisons
Michigan has a great scoring defense (4th nationally). The two best defenses OSU has faced were Michigan State (17th) and Penn State (31st)
@ MSU: 26 points, 347 yds, 21 1st dns
@ PSU: 27 points, 389 yds, 21 1st dns
MSU defense gave up 39% more than season average to OSU
PSU defense gave up 26% more than season average to OSU
Pretty similar
Neither of them is as strong as Michigan AND OSU played them both on the ROAD (big deal)
What About Against Michigan?
Adjust for Defense: If Michigan gave up 139% of their season average (13.5) that would be 18.8
Adjust for Home Field Difference: THEN generously add 6 points to the Offense for the difference between playing in very hostile Happy Valley/East Landfill vs playing in the very friendly Horseshoe and you get 24-25 points. (Edit: adjusted HFA to split between Off & Def)
Reason Check: The best offense the Michigan defense played against was @ ND, which scored 24 points on this defense. The ND season scoring average is about 7 points less than OSU. That suggests 31 points. However, OSU offense is playing worse then earlier in the season.
Conclusion: Conservatively, OSU will score 25 to 28 points vs this Michigan defense. I don't see anything north of 30 points being very likely, The lower end of the spectrum (~24-26 points) is more likely.
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