Good News!!
Although we are 4-1, which is less than we had hoped for, we are a very legitimate Top Ten Team nationally. Really, to the computers Michigan looks a lot like a Top-8 team.
Bad News
The Bad News is that we play in the toughest division in college football and three teams on our remaining schedule (Wisky, PSU, MSU) are easily within one standard deviation of our power rating and could easily beat us. Such a loss might only be considered a minor "upset" if at all. OSU is just on another level and to beat them we need an extraordinary effort and some luck (turnovers, big plays, etc.) PLEASE NOTE: Home field means A LOT in these estimations.
Who are we? Who are they?
By this time of the year ratings begin to settle down and the strong teams and the weak team are more apparent. There will still be upsets as untimely turnovers, key injuries and sudden big plays screw up all of the probabilities. But largely we are who we seem to be...This is a very good football A team which unfortunately plays in the toughest division in college football.
Sagarin Index: Michigan 8th (Through Week 5...same as last week)
OSU-2, PSU-3, MSU-24, Wisky-9, (ND-13)
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI: Michigan 7th (Through Week 5...same as last week)
OSU-2, PSU-4, MSU-20, Wisky-14, (ND-9)
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Football Outsiders S&P+: Michigan 7th (Through Week 5...6th last week)
OSU-3, PSU-8, MSU-21, Wisky-13, (ND-9)
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
Massey Peabody: Michigan 5th (Post week 4 updated on Wednesday for week 5)
OSU-4, PSU-6, MSU-13, Wisky-17, (ND-11)
http://massey-peabody.com/college-football-2018-weekly-rankings/
What does it mean?
My predicted lines for the remainder of the season
Maryland = Michigan -18
Wisconsin = Michigan -6
@ Michigan St. = Michigan -2
Penn St. = Michigan -1
@Rutgers = Michigan - Gazillion
Indiana = Michigan -22
@Ohio St. = Michigan +15
Predicting our Record
Even as we are legitimately a top 10 team, this schedule implies a regular season record of 8.5 wins 3.5 losses.
If we reach 9 wins it means we beat two of Wisky, MSU, PSU
For us to reach 10 wins we need to sweep those three games or win in the Horseshoe
Our chances of winning out are probably less than 2%
Painfully Looking Back: Losing the ND game was just a huge missed opportunity and that one loss means a lot at year end, especially as ND will stand in the bowl line in FRONT of us for the better opportunities. Plus seeing Brian Kelly and ND in the Playoffs will make me ill. They are a very strong candidate for the playoffs if they beat VTech next week, which I think they will.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: The expected point differential swing between Happy Valley (-5 points) and the Big House (+ 5 points) is about 10 points...10 points to our favor. It helps us with PSU and WISKY it hurts us with MSU and OSU and it definitely hurt us at ND
Although we are 4-1, which is less than we had hoped for, we are a very legitimate Top Ten Team nationally. Really, to the computers Michigan looks a lot like a Top-8 team.
Bad News
The Bad News is that we play in the toughest division in college football and three teams on our remaining schedule (Wisky, PSU, MSU) are easily within one standard deviation of our power rating and could easily beat us. Such a loss might only be considered a minor "upset" if at all. OSU is just on another level and to beat them we need an extraordinary effort and some luck (turnovers, big plays, etc.) PLEASE NOTE: Home field means A LOT in these estimations.
Who are we? Who are they?
By this time of the year ratings begin to settle down and the strong teams and the weak team are more apparent. There will still be upsets as untimely turnovers, key injuries and sudden big plays screw up all of the probabilities. But largely we are who we seem to be...This is a very good football A team which unfortunately plays in the toughest division in college football.
Sagarin Index: Michigan 8th (Through Week 5...same as last week)
OSU-2, PSU-3, MSU-24, Wisky-9, (ND-13)
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI: Michigan 7th (Through Week 5...same as last week)
OSU-2, PSU-4, MSU-20, Wisky-14, (ND-9)
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Football Outsiders S&P+: Michigan 7th (Through Week 5...6th last week)
OSU-3, PSU-8, MSU-21, Wisky-13, (ND-9)
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
Massey Peabody: Michigan 5th (Post week 4 updated on Wednesday for week 5)
OSU-4, PSU-6, MSU-13, Wisky-17, (ND-11)
http://massey-peabody.com/college-football-2018-weekly-rankings/
What does it mean?
My predicted lines for the remainder of the season
Maryland = Michigan -18
Wisconsin = Michigan -6
@ Michigan St. = Michigan -2
Penn St. = Michigan -1
@Rutgers = Michigan - Gazillion
Indiana = Michigan -22
@Ohio St. = Michigan +15
Predicting our Record
Even as we are legitimately a top 10 team, this schedule implies a regular season record of 8.5 wins 3.5 losses.
If we reach 9 wins it means we beat two of Wisky, MSU, PSU
For us to reach 10 wins we need to sweep those three games or win in the Horseshoe
Our chances of winning out are probably less than 2%
Painfully Looking Back: Losing the ND game was just a huge missed opportunity and that one loss means a lot at year end, especially as ND will stand in the bowl line in FRONT of us for the better opportunities. Plus seeing Brian Kelly and ND in the Playoffs will make me ill. They are a very strong candidate for the playoffs if they beat VTech next week, which I think they will.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: The expected point differential swing between Happy Valley (-5 points) and the Big House (+ 5 points) is about 10 points...10 points to our favor. It helps us with PSU and WISKY it hurts us with MSU and OSU and it definitely hurt us at ND
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