An early look at analytics for PSU Michigan Game
BOTTOMLINE: No matter how you slice it Michigan winning next week would be a HUGE upset. In reality it could be a very tough night to watch football. All the metrics I looked at place this game as 11 to +20 points in favor of PSU. Playing Penn St. IN HAPPY VALLEY, AT NIGHT, AFTER A BYE WEEK, DURING A WHITE OUT, on NATIONAL TV with a scared Michigan QB only make this task tougher. MUCH tougher. I'm very uncomfortable about what will happen.
My early score guess is PSU 24 – Michigan 10
This guess is HIGHLY dependent upon Michigan turnovers. If Michigan does not turn the ball over this game could get close (~7 points?). If we have anything like a repeat of the MSU turnover debacle it could be a BLOWOUT (+25 points)
Expected Betting Line: PSU by 12 points (Update: The line DID open at Michigan -12 points as I expected)
I estimate that the opening betting line will be somewhere between PSU by 10 to PSU by 14 points. I would take PSU early as I expect the line to get wider as the week goes on.
BlueMonster Spread Odds Model
Spread at -10 points we have a 25% chance of winning
Spread at -14 points we have a 13% chance of winning
Common Opponent: Indiana:
· Michigan on ROAD: Tied at the end of Regulation (won by 7)
· Penn St at HOME: Won by 31
Suggested Spread: A LOT
Best Opponents: Michigan:
· Michigan St - HOME: Lost by 4
· Florida – NEUTRAL: Won by 16
· Indiana - ROAD: Tied at the end of Regulation (won by 7)
Average Margin: 7 points
Best Opponents: Penn St.:
· Iowa - ROAD = Won by 2
· Indiana - HOME: Won by 31
· Northwestern - ROAD: Won by 24
Average Margin: 17 points
Suggested Spread: 10 Points + 5 points HFA = 15 points favoring PSU
What each defense allows vs best 3 Big Ten opponents:
· Michigan = 56% of season average (MSU, Indiana, Purdue)
......o PSU scoring average = 39.7 x 56% = 22 points
· Penn St. = 58% of season average (Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern)
......o Michigan Scoring average = 27.3 x 58% = 16 points
......o Note the Michigan offense of the last two games is MUCH weaker than the previous 4
Suggested Spread: 6 points + 5 points HFA = 11 points favoring PSU
Adjusted Sagarin Score (Recent)
· 93.59 - Penn St.
· 85.52 - Michigan
· ..8.07 - Spread on Neutral Field
· ..5.00 – Home field advantage for Penn St. (points)
· 13.07 = Spread for PSU
Suggested Spread = 13 points favoring PSU
BOTTOMLINE: No matter how you slice it Michigan winning next week would be a HUGE upset. In reality it could be a very tough night to watch football. All the metrics I looked at place this game as 11 to +20 points in favor of PSU. Playing Penn St. IN HAPPY VALLEY, AT NIGHT, AFTER A BYE WEEK, DURING A WHITE OUT, on NATIONAL TV with a scared Michigan QB only make this task tougher. MUCH tougher. I'm very uncomfortable about what will happen.
My early score guess is PSU 24 – Michigan 10
This guess is HIGHLY dependent upon Michigan turnovers. If Michigan does not turn the ball over this game could get close (~7 points?). If we have anything like a repeat of the MSU turnover debacle it could be a BLOWOUT (+25 points)
Expected Betting Line: PSU by 12 points (Update: The line DID open at Michigan -12 points as I expected)
I estimate that the opening betting line will be somewhere between PSU by 10 to PSU by 14 points. I would take PSU early as I expect the line to get wider as the week goes on.
BlueMonster Spread Odds Model
Spread at -10 points we have a 25% chance of winning
Spread at -14 points we have a 13% chance of winning
Common Opponent: Indiana:
· Michigan on ROAD: Tied at the end of Regulation (won by 7)
· Penn St at HOME: Won by 31
Suggested Spread: A LOT
Best Opponents: Michigan:
· Michigan St - HOME: Lost by 4
· Florida – NEUTRAL: Won by 16
· Indiana - ROAD: Tied at the end of Regulation (won by 7)
Average Margin: 7 points
Best Opponents: Penn St.:
· Iowa - ROAD = Won by 2
· Indiana - HOME: Won by 31
· Northwestern - ROAD: Won by 24
Average Margin: 17 points
Suggested Spread: 10 Points + 5 points HFA = 15 points favoring PSU
What each defense allows vs best 3 Big Ten opponents:
· Michigan = 56% of season average (MSU, Indiana, Purdue)
......o PSU scoring average = 39.7 x 56% = 22 points
· Penn St. = 58% of season average (Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern)
......o Michigan Scoring average = 27.3 x 58% = 16 points
......o Note the Michigan offense of the last two games is MUCH weaker than the previous 4
Suggested Spread: 6 points + 5 points HFA = 11 points favoring PSU
Adjusted Sagarin Score (Recent)
· 93.59 - Penn St.
· 85.52 - Michigan
· ..8.07 - Spread on Neutral Field
· ..5.00 – Home field advantage for Penn St. (points)
· 13.07 = Spread for PSU
Suggested Spread = 13 points favoring PSU
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