Let’s just put an end to this.
Below are all of our 3* and 4* recruits from the 2016 through 2021 classes. Using composite ratings.
This is all at Michigan, @buttaball. Coached by Jim Harbaugh.
Jury's still out on some guys, and some ended up injured or transferring for reasons other than not being good enough to play here.
My general definition of a “hit” is whether someone became a starter for at least a year, or some reasonable equivalent of that.
“Star” is a bit subjective. Depends on your definition. For the purposes of this discussion, it's not that important whether someone was a "hit" or a "star".
But I’d be surprised if there are more than a handful of guys I classified as “misses” who anyone would take issue with.
Here we go...
4* STAR Long, Bush, Hutchinson, Ojabo, Corum (5)
4* HIT Bredeson, Onwenu, LavertHill, Evans, Eubanks, KHudson, AmbryThomas, Collins, Ross, McGrone, Mayfield, Hayes, Hinton, Charbonnet, MaziSmith, CorneliusJohnson, Keegan, Zinter, Barnhart, McNamara, All, Moten, Paige, Harrell, Wilson, Colson (26)
4* OTHER Asiasi, JHudson, Jackson, Hansen, Rooks (5)
4* MISS Crawford, RonJohnson, Kemp, Vilain, Singleton, JordanAnthony, Filiaga, Black, McCaffrey, Martin, Kelly-Powell, Irving-Bey, Muhammad, Sims, MIlton, Rumler, Perry, Henning, Seldon, Morant, Green-Warren, Dixon, Hood (23)
4* TBA TrenteJones, QuintenJohnson, Gentry, McGregor, Mullings, Persi, El-Hadi, Benny, Anderson, Crippen, Bennett (11) - and I would predict 5-6 of these 11 will be hits if we do this analysis again in 18 months, which would also be consistent with the hit rates (below).
3* STAR Uche, Turner (2)
3* HIT Metellus, McKeon, Hawkins, Jeter, Stueber, Mason, Paye, GemonGreen, Gray, Barrett, Schoonmaker, Haskins, Bell, Morris, Sainristil, Jenkins, Moore (17)
3* OTHER Dwumfour, Malone-Hatcher, ST-Juste, Kent, Lewis, AAnthony, NHG (7)
3* MISS McDoom, Mbem-Bosse, NateJohnson, Spanellis, Davis, Gil, Samuels, Hall, Woods, Paea, Honigford, KurtTaylor, GermanGreen, CTurner, Upshaw, Faustin, VanSumeren, Welschof, Solomon, CThomas, Carpenter, Newburg, Stewart, GJohnson, Velazquez, Savage, Mohan, Wheeler, Dennis, Villari (30)
3* TBA Hibner, Atteberry, Dunlap, Bounds, McLaurin, Guy, McBurrows, Iwunnah, Giudice (9) - probably won't be more than 2 hits from this group
THE TALLY
54 four-stars we can render a verdict on….
9.2% stars - and I'll bet we may move a couple of "hits" into this category this season
48.2% hits
42.6% misses
49 three-stars we can render a verdict on…
4.1% stars
34.7% hits
61.2% misses
THE BOTTOM LINE
57.4% of 4* have worked out as either starters or stars.
Only 38.8% of 3* have done the same.
And the TBA's look way more promising for the 4* than the 3* as of now.
Roughly 6 in 10 three-stars missed, while only about 4 in 10 four-stars missed.
That disparity Is likely to widen once the 20 TBA's have their verdicts rendered.
This is why getting much more 4*/5* than 3* matters A LOT.
The numbers will always work themselves out.
If, over a 4-year cycle, you get 20 more 4* instead of 3*, that's going to work out to 4-6 more starter-caliber players, 1-2 of whom will be stars.
Thats' the difference between a team that's loaded and a team with a couple of question marks or lacks depth.
That affects wins and losses.
Below are all of our 3* and 4* recruits from the 2016 through 2021 classes. Using composite ratings.
This is all at Michigan, @buttaball. Coached by Jim Harbaugh.
Jury's still out on some guys, and some ended up injured or transferring for reasons other than not being good enough to play here.
My general definition of a “hit” is whether someone became a starter for at least a year, or some reasonable equivalent of that.
“Star” is a bit subjective. Depends on your definition. For the purposes of this discussion, it's not that important whether someone was a "hit" or a "star".
But I’d be surprised if there are more than a handful of guys I classified as “misses” who anyone would take issue with.
Here we go...
4* STAR Long, Bush, Hutchinson, Ojabo, Corum (5)
4* HIT Bredeson, Onwenu, LavertHill, Evans, Eubanks, KHudson, AmbryThomas, Collins, Ross, McGrone, Mayfield, Hayes, Hinton, Charbonnet, MaziSmith, CorneliusJohnson, Keegan, Zinter, Barnhart, McNamara, All, Moten, Paige, Harrell, Wilson, Colson (26)
4* OTHER Asiasi, JHudson, Jackson, Hansen, Rooks (5)
4* MISS Crawford, RonJohnson, Kemp, Vilain, Singleton, JordanAnthony, Filiaga, Black, McCaffrey, Martin, Kelly-Powell, Irving-Bey, Muhammad, Sims, MIlton, Rumler, Perry, Henning, Seldon, Morant, Green-Warren, Dixon, Hood (23)
4* TBA TrenteJones, QuintenJohnson, Gentry, McGregor, Mullings, Persi, El-Hadi, Benny, Anderson, Crippen, Bennett (11) - and I would predict 5-6 of these 11 will be hits if we do this analysis again in 18 months, which would also be consistent with the hit rates (below).
3* STAR Uche, Turner (2)
3* HIT Metellus, McKeon, Hawkins, Jeter, Stueber, Mason, Paye, GemonGreen, Gray, Barrett, Schoonmaker, Haskins, Bell, Morris, Sainristil, Jenkins, Moore (17)
3* OTHER Dwumfour, Malone-Hatcher, ST-Juste, Kent, Lewis, AAnthony, NHG (7)
3* MISS McDoom, Mbem-Bosse, NateJohnson, Spanellis, Davis, Gil, Samuels, Hall, Woods, Paea, Honigford, KurtTaylor, GermanGreen, CTurner, Upshaw, Faustin, VanSumeren, Welschof, Solomon, CThomas, Carpenter, Newburg, Stewart, GJohnson, Velazquez, Savage, Mohan, Wheeler, Dennis, Villari (30)
3* TBA Hibner, Atteberry, Dunlap, Bounds, McLaurin, Guy, McBurrows, Iwunnah, Giudice (9) - probably won't be more than 2 hits from this group
THE TALLY
54 four-stars we can render a verdict on….
9.2% stars - and I'll bet we may move a couple of "hits" into this category this season
48.2% hits
42.6% misses
49 three-stars we can render a verdict on…
4.1% stars
34.7% hits
61.2% misses
THE BOTTOM LINE
57.4% of 4* have worked out as either starters or stars.
Only 38.8% of 3* have done the same.
And the TBA's look way more promising for the 4* than the 3* as of now.
Roughly 6 in 10 three-stars missed, while only about 4 in 10 four-stars missed.
That disparity Is likely to widen once the 20 TBA's have their verdicts rendered.
This is why getting much more 4*/5* than 3* matters A LOT.
The numbers will always work themselves out.
If, over a 4-year cycle, you get 20 more 4* instead of 3*, that's going to work out to 4-6 more starter-caliber players, 1-2 of whom will be stars.
Thats' the difference between a team that's loaded and a team with a couple of question marks or lacks depth.
That affects wins and losses.
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