Stanford and Cal have few choices and very little time.
If their choices are…
Joining the ACC isn’t a good idea for two reasons—extensive travel for all their men’s and women’s teams, and the ACC appears to be as threatened as was the Pac12. Almost all the ACC members are very unhappy with their TV revenues and the conference is only held together only by a punitive grant-of-rights. Furthermore, the TV rights payments they’d receive won’t escalate for the next 13 years.
Joining the Mountain West isn’t even a consideration. MW members only receive about $4 million from their TV rights contract. Case closed.
Independence with an attempt to negotiate their own TV contract is probably the least desirable option. Notre Dane only gets $25 million per year from NBC for their home games, and they are an established national brand. Viewership of Stanford and Cal games is diminimous even in the Bay Area and almost non-existent nationally. They would command only a fraction of what Notre Dame is paid. Furthermore, independence offers no path to NCAA playoffs and national championships for any of their sports.
The Big12 is a possibility and will likely draw an offer from them shortly. There is little or no academic commonality between Stanford, Cal and the Big12. Travel for all their intercollegiate teams would be extensive and if they hit a full share of rights payments, they’d begin getting about the same as they were being paid as a member of the 12-team Pac12–$30 million a year. But at least it could be expected to escalate.
There is more academic commonality between Stanford, Cal and the Big Ten than any other conference. In fact the Big Ten Academic Alliance might even desire their membership based on the depth and reputation of their research capabilities and faculty. Travel woukd be extensive. They will almost certainly suffer a deep discount to the Big Ten rights payments in order to avoid any dilution of payments to existing conference members. But even if they had to suffer a 50% discount, they’d still be paid as much as they were from the Pac12 or the Big12, with a much greater upside. Further, the possibility of significant revenues resulting from their participation in BTAA shouldn’t be overlooked.
So it looks like the Big Ten is by far the best option for Stanford and Cal. They have very little time before having to kick off a 12-game 2024 schedule somewhere.
Now the question seems to be—does the Big Ten have any interest?
If their choices are…
- Merging with or joining the ACC
- Joining the Mountain West
- Trying to go it alone as an Independent
- Joining the Big12
- Joining the Big Ten
Joining the ACC isn’t a good idea for two reasons—extensive travel for all their men’s and women’s teams, and the ACC appears to be as threatened as was the Pac12. Almost all the ACC members are very unhappy with their TV revenues and the conference is only held together only by a punitive grant-of-rights. Furthermore, the TV rights payments they’d receive won’t escalate for the next 13 years.
Joining the Mountain West isn’t even a consideration. MW members only receive about $4 million from their TV rights contract. Case closed.
Independence with an attempt to negotiate their own TV contract is probably the least desirable option. Notre Dane only gets $25 million per year from NBC for their home games, and they are an established national brand. Viewership of Stanford and Cal games is diminimous even in the Bay Area and almost non-existent nationally. They would command only a fraction of what Notre Dame is paid. Furthermore, independence offers no path to NCAA playoffs and national championships for any of their sports.
The Big12 is a possibility and will likely draw an offer from them shortly. There is little or no academic commonality between Stanford, Cal and the Big12. Travel for all their intercollegiate teams would be extensive and if they hit a full share of rights payments, they’d begin getting about the same as they were being paid as a member of the 12-team Pac12–$30 million a year. But at least it could be expected to escalate.
There is more academic commonality between Stanford, Cal and the Big Ten than any other conference. In fact the Big Ten Academic Alliance might even desire their membership based on the depth and reputation of their research capabilities and faculty. Travel woukd be extensive. They will almost certainly suffer a deep discount to the Big Ten rights payments in order to avoid any dilution of payments to existing conference members. But even if they had to suffer a 50% discount, they’d still be paid as much as they were from the Pac12 or the Big12, with a much greater upside. Further, the possibility of significant revenues resulting from their participation in BTAA shouldn’t be overlooked.
So it looks like the Big Ten is by far the best option for Stanford and Cal. They have very little time before having to kick off a 12-game 2024 schedule somewhere.
Now the question seems to be—does the Big Ten have any interest?
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