For all the frustration of today, Michigan won't drop below a one seed in the NCAA. At this point they are locked into either #3 or #4 overall in the bracket. They will retain the #3 spot unless they lose on Friday and Illinois is playing on Sunday of the BTT. Even if Michigan loses on Saturday and Illinois wins the BTT I don't see a last second swap. The committee gets very lazy come Saturday and doesn't entertain multiple brackets based on recent years.
As for when will Michigan play in the NCAA. That is unknown based on regions being in the same location. With that said, IMO I believe the committee will grant Gonzaga and Baylor the advantage in having an extra day prep for the F4 if they reach that destination. Thus, I would be extremely surprised if those two regions don't kick off on the Fri/Sun games with Michigan/Illinois being the Sat/Mon and then Sun/Tue the following week. However, BYU will have to play a Sat/Mon first weekend and Sat/Mon the next weekend since they don't play on Sundays. Thus, it is not out of the realm that BYU could be a 7 seed in the Michigan region and flip the second weekend games.
Given the first four games on Thursday, I would assume those 16 seeds will get Friday off and jump to Sat/Mon. At this time, that would mean Michigan gets (based off highest NET at this time) the winner of Hartford (167) vs Prairie View (190) (the 66/67 best teams in the field), which is about on par with Ball State in terms of competition. Michigan and Illinois will get 'easier' 16 seeds than Gonzaga/Baylor based off schedule and first four considerations.
I would be surprised to see a team like Loyola pop up as an 8/9 seed. Based off the last decade, the committee appears to be careful with a mid/low major top 20 Kenpom ranking and never placing them with a one seed in the 8/9 game. IMO the committee tries to protect one seeds against those type of teams that are hard to evaluate. See Wichita or Wofford in recent years. Expect run of the mill P6 schools for that second round game.
Just for fun but at this time the top eight seeds in the Michigan region are based off my bracket through today's games roughly (2) Houston, (3) Arkansas (4) West Virginia (5) Creighton (6) Wisconsin (7) Oklahoma (8) Oregon ....(9) Georgia Tech.....obviously fluid and merely an approximate, but I would be fine with those teams.
I would be extremely surprised if MSU beat Maryland on Thursday. Fair or not they are spent from these last two weeks. They sit solidly as an 11 seed right now with no danger of the first four. On the flip side a win over Maryland and a win over Michigan and they start to be looking at possibly the 9 seed with Gonzaga or Baylor. Even if they won the whole BTT maybe they slide up to the 8 seed with......Gonzaga or Baylor. The players don't want to lose, but I guarantee Izzo is being let know of what may happen. I see him completely tanking that Thursday game with lineups and taking the 11 seed road in the NCAA.
As for when will Michigan play in the NCAA. That is unknown based on regions being in the same location. With that said, IMO I believe the committee will grant Gonzaga and Baylor the advantage in having an extra day prep for the F4 if they reach that destination. Thus, I would be extremely surprised if those two regions don't kick off on the Fri/Sun games with Michigan/Illinois being the Sat/Mon and then Sun/Tue the following week. However, BYU will have to play a Sat/Mon first weekend and Sat/Mon the next weekend since they don't play on Sundays. Thus, it is not out of the realm that BYU could be a 7 seed in the Michigan region and flip the second weekend games.
Given the first four games on Thursday, I would assume those 16 seeds will get Friday off and jump to Sat/Mon. At this time, that would mean Michigan gets (based off highest NET at this time) the winner of Hartford (167) vs Prairie View (190) (the 66/67 best teams in the field), which is about on par with Ball State in terms of competition. Michigan and Illinois will get 'easier' 16 seeds than Gonzaga/Baylor based off schedule and first four considerations.
I would be surprised to see a team like Loyola pop up as an 8/9 seed. Based off the last decade, the committee appears to be careful with a mid/low major top 20 Kenpom ranking and never placing them with a one seed in the 8/9 game. IMO the committee tries to protect one seeds against those type of teams that are hard to evaluate. See Wichita or Wofford in recent years. Expect run of the mill P6 schools for that second round game.
Just for fun but at this time the top eight seeds in the Michigan region are based off my bracket through today's games roughly (2) Houston, (3) Arkansas (4) West Virginia (5) Creighton (6) Wisconsin (7) Oklahoma (8) Oregon ....(9) Georgia Tech.....obviously fluid and merely an approximate, but I would be fine with those teams.
I would be extremely surprised if MSU beat Maryland on Thursday. Fair or not they are spent from these last two weeks. They sit solidly as an 11 seed right now with no danger of the first four. On the flip side a win over Maryland and a win over Michigan and they start to be looking at possibly the 9 seed with Gonzaga or Baylor. Even if they won the whole BTT maybe they slide up to the 8 seed with......Gonzaga or Baylor. The players don't want to lose, but I guarantee Izzo is being let know of what may happen. I see him completely tanking that Thursday game with lineups and taking the 11 seed road in the NCAA.
