After tonight's win, Michigan is still likely sitting on the 10 seed line. I would probably have them as a last 10 seed at this point with 6 at large teams below on the S curve.
It obviously comes down to the next two games. Michigan is in a somewhat similar position entering the final two games as 2009 when it comes to attaining a NCAA bid. The difference between the two is that year Michigan had quality top 25 wins over UCLA, Duke and Purdue along with top 50 wins over Illinois and Minnesota. Their problem was they were 8-8 and trying to avoid an eyesore 8-10 conference record. This year Michigan has a pleasant looking 10-8 at worst, but lacking the beef in 2009. That season Michigan had a weekend game at Wisconsin where they came up just short in the end and then a full week off before Burning The Boats in Minneapolis to stabilize a NCAA bid. This year Michigan will once again play a weekend game at Wisconsin and get a full week off before playing an equally challenging game as that roadie with Minnesota. If SMU and Louisville were eligible for the NCAA and the field was 65, then Michigan would be sitting in the same spot as that 2009 team right now, just barely in.
The Wisconsin v Iowa result tonight was not what I wanted to see. It wasn't about seeing Wisconsin lose. It was about seeing Iowa win. Had the Hawks won tonight along with winning at a Tateless Ohio State this weekend, it would have set up the greatest game ever played at Carver Hawkeye Arena when Indiana came to visit next week. That matchup would have been for at worst a share of the Big Ten title. So now instead of the Iowa players getting hyped for the Indiana game and potentially being serenaded with confetti and cutting down nets at Carver, they will head to Ann Arbor starving for a Big Ten title if they win their next two games. That is a huge shift in mentality from their point of view in potentially going from champions heading to A2 for another conference game before the Big Ten Tournament to clinching a Big Ten title at Crisler. Thus, it would be beneficially to see Indiana beat the Hawks next week and have them arrive downtrodden.
As it is, it would be a shame if Michigan cannot beat Iowa on their home floor with a full week off with a NCAA berth on the line. Iowa has played well for most of the year, but they are not a team that is significantly more talented than Michigan. This is the type of game a team determined to get to the NCAA wins (see Nebraska v Wisconsin - 2014).
With that being said, it is not a given Michigan loses at Wisconsin. Although the Badgers are playing excellent of late, they could be prime for a letdown like they almost had last week vs Illinois. Wisconsin is no longer in panic mode. They are one win away from locking a NCAA bid and will likely get that at Minnesota next week if need be.
Michigan has secured at least an 8 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. There is still a very, very slim chance at getting a top 4 bye. Michigan would of course need to finish 12-6. Indiana and MSU will win at least 13 games. About the only somewhat logical path to get a top 4 bid is to end up tied with Iowa and Maryland at 12-6 and have Purdue and Wisconsin at 11-7. I believe Maryland would be the 3 and Michigan the 4 in that scenario. The problem with other teams is that if Michigan ends up in a tie, they won't own head to head and then it comes to wins v Indiana/MSU and again Michigan loses. Thus it is probably a 2-3% chance Michigan gets a top 4 bid.
It is still too early to determine but 12-6 gets Michigan a 5 or 6 BTT seed. 11-7 is probably a 7. 10-8 is certainly the 8 seed, that is a given. I'm not sure if there is any added benefit at the 5/6 spot as compared to 7/8. The 5/6 does get the 12/13 or 11/14 winner, but I'm not sure if there is an added benefit in getting a team that played the day before. Usually, their legs are still fine and they have already had a full day shooting at the basket. I also don't see much difference between 9-12 (NW, PSU, Neb, Illinois).
As for the NCAA, 12-6 gets Michigan straddling the 7/8 line. 11-7 and Michigan is the top 10 seed. 10-8 and Michigan is the last team in. This is all entering Indianapolis.
It obviously comes down to the next two games. Michigan is in a somewhat similar position entering the final two games as 2009 when it comes to attaining a NCAA bid. The difference between the two is that year Michigan had quality top 25 wins over UCLA, Duke and Purdue along with top 50 wins over Illinois and Minnesota. Their problem was they were 8-8 and trying to avoid an eyesore 8-10 conference record. This year Michigan has a pleasant looking 10-8 at worst, but lacking the beef in 2009. That season Michigan had a weekend game at Wisconsin where they came up just short in the end and then a full week off before Burning The Boats in Minneapolis to stabilize a NCAA bid. This year Michigan will once again play a weekend game at Wisconsin and get a full week off before playing an equally challenging game as that roadie with Minnesota. If SMU and Louisville were eligible for the NCAA and the field was 65, then Michigan would be sitting in the same spot as that 2009 team right now, just barely in.
The Wisconsin v Iowa result tonight was not what I wanted to see. It wasn't about seeing Wisconsin lose. It was about seeing Iowa win. Had the Hawks won tonight along with winning at a Tateless Ohio State this weekend, it would have set up the greatest game ever played at Carver Hawkeye Arena when Indiana came to visit next week. That matchup would have been for at worst a share of the Big Ten title. So now instead of the Iowa players getting hyped for the Indiana game and potentially being serenaded with confetti and cutting down nets at Carver, they will head to Ann Arbor starving for a Big Ten title if they win their next two games. That is a huge shift in mentality from their point of view in potentially going from champions heading to A2 for another conference game before the Big Ten Tournament to clinching a Big Ten title at Crisler. Thus, it would be beneficially to see Indiana beat the Hawks next week and have them arrive downtrodden.
As it is, it would be a shame if Michigan cannot beat Iowa on their home floor with a full week off with a NCAA berth on the line. Iowa has played well for most of the year, but they are not a team that is significantly more talented than Michigan. This is the type of game a team determined to get to the NCAA wins (see Nebraska v Wisconsin - 2014).
With that being said, it is not a given Michigan loses at Wisconsin. Although the Badgers are playing excellent of late, they could be prime for a letdown like they almost had last week vs Illinois. Wisconsin is no longer in panic mode. They are one win away from locking a NCAA bid and will likely get that at Minnesota next week if need be.
Michigan has secured at least an 8 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. There is still a very, very slim chance at getting a top 4 bye. Michigan would of course need to finish 12-6. Indiana and MSU will win at least 13 games. About the only somewhat logical path to get a top 4 bid is to end up tied with Iowa and Maryland at 12-6 and have Purdue and Wisconsin at 11-7. I believe Maryland would be the 3 and Michigan the 4 in that scenario. The problem with other teams is that if Michigan ends up in a tie, they won't own head to head and then it comes to wins v Indiana/MSU and again Michigan loses. Thus it is probably a 2-3% chance Michigan gets a top 4 bid.
It is still too early to determine but 12-6 gets Michigan a 5 or 6 BTT seed. 11-7 is probably a 7. 10-8 is certainly the 8 seed, that is a given. I'm not sure if there is any added benefit at the 5/6 spot as compared to 7/8. The 5/6 does get the 12/13 or 11/14 winner, but I'm not sure if there is an added benefit in getting a team that played the day before. Usually, their legs are still fine and they have already had a full day shooting at the basket. I also don't see much difference between 9-12 (NW, PSU, Neb, Illinois).
As for the NCAA, 12-6 gets Michigan straddling the 7/8 line. 11-7 and Michigan is the top 10 seed. 10-8 and Michigan is the last team in. This is all entering Indianapolis.
