1. As most here know, John Beilein generally has not done well in long recruitments, which I'll define as more than four months from offer to commitment. In fact, Brandon Johns is the first successful recuitment of that type since Mitch McGary and Nik Stauskas (not counting Tyus Battle, who would have qualified had he not decommitted). It looks like Beilein has internalized that--we offered a bunch of forwards (Thompson, Nance, Anderson) in the spring of this year, in part to let Johns know that while he was our first choice, if he didn't act, we were prepared to take others--and I think that's what's going on with Brazdeikis (Horton-Tucker) and Locke (very likely with Kennedy and likely with Ahrens). Don't get me wrong--Horton-Tucker can play, and if someone can remake his perimeter shot (and who better than Beilein), he can be outstanding. However, I still think Iggy is the number one guy at that position for the next 10-14 days; after that, all bets are off.
2. Castleton is a different situation, in that he is the only guy we're still recruiting at his position. That we're recruiting him in the wake of Taylor Currie's reclassification may mean a number of things--we're sure Mo Wagner is gone after this year, and we want to have more options at the 5, we think Currie will likely be a 4, not a 5, we think there may be attrition at the 5, we think that Currie will absolutely redshirt in '18-'19, and if Mo leaves, we'll be thin at the 5 (and if there is attrition, possibly fatally thin) unless we get another guy, he's too good to pass up, or something else. With all that, I think he's going to be caught in a numbers game even if he wants to come, because I think we will have gotten two commitments before he makes it to Ann Arbor for an official visit.
3. At this point, I think the most likely two guys to finish the class (and I think we'll take two more) are Iggy and Locke which would be fantastic. It's possible that Locke is beaten to the punch by Ahrens (or decides not to come even if Ahrens delays or chooses OSU or Xavier), and it's certainly possible that Iggy chooses another school or waits himself out of a spot, but gun to my head, the signs point that way. No matter who we get--Iggy, Locke, Ahrens, Kennedy, Horton-Tucker, Castleton, etc.--we're going to have a good class, and depending on which two commit, it could be a very good to excellent class.
4. I think that the class, or at least the portion of the class signed in the fall (there could be more signed in the spring depending on attrition) will be in place before the MSU football game; if not, then by right after that weekend. As if the week leading up to Michigan/MSU didn't have enough fireworks.
2. Castleton is a different situation, in that he is the only guy we're still recruiting at his position. That we're recruiting him in the wake of Taylor Currie's reclassification may mean a number of things--we're sure Mo Wagner is gone after this year, and we want to have more options at the 5, we think Currie will likely be a 4, not a 5, we think there may be attrition at the 5, we think that Currie will absolutely redshirt in '18-'19, and if Mo leaves, we'll be thin at the 5 (and if there is attrition, possibly fatally thin) unless we get another guy, he's too good to pass up, or something else. With all that, I think he's going to be caught in a numbers game even if he wants to come, because I think we will have gotten two commitments before he makes it to Ann Arbor for an official visit.
3. At this point, I think the most likely two guys to finish the class (and I think we'll take two more) are Iggy and Locke which would be fantastic. It's possible that Locke is beaten to the punch by Ahrens (or decides not to come even if Ahrens delays or chooses OSU or Xavier), and it's certainly possible that Iggy chooses another school or waits himself out of a spot, but gun to my head, the signs point that way. No matter who we get--Iggy, Locke, Ahrens, Kennedy, Horton-Tucker, Castleton, etc.--we're going to have a good class, and depending on which two commit, it could be a very good to excellent class.
4. I think that the class, or at least the portion of the class signed in the fall (there could be more signed in the spring depending on attrition) will be in place before the MSU football game; if not, then by right after that weekend. As if the week leading up to Michigan/MSU didn't have enough fireworks.
