So lets compare the star rankings from Rivals and Scout for the 2012 and 2013 Michigan signing classes. Who did a better job of evaluating talent? How accurate were they? Which kids did they overrate and underrate?
We have enough data to already start to get a feeling for these two classes. The below table may be a bit messy to read but the first number is the Rivals star rating, the second number the Scout star rating and the third number the rating that I would currently give the player. For players where there was a divergence between the two services I would credit one service as a "winner" when its score was closer to the current grade. I then comment on kids that were overrated or underrated by the two services.
A few more notes and observations:
- Scout tends to rate our kids a bit more highly than Rivals. In the 2012 class Rivals gave Michigan commits a total of 89 stars compared to 91 stars from Scout. In 2013 the difference was even greater, with 98 for Rivals and 104 for Scout.
- My "current grades" total 79 for the 2012 class and 80 for the 2013 class. These lower scores are not necessarily anomalies. Virtually all incoming classes will end up with final grades lower than initial star ratings. This is due to the fact that, especially for the elite schools, most of the signees receive a "default three stars" but those that do not end up contributing will only end up with two stars. Moreover, unforeseen factors such as injuries, academic and disciplinary issues are included in the current scores, thereby bringing them down.
- What is of interest in comparing entering total stars to current stars is the "gap" between the two. The average gap is only 11 stars for the 2012 class but a very high 21 for the 2013 class. These gaps confirm more qualitative assessments that the 2012 class has had a higher percentage of hits while there have been quite a few misses in the 2013 class.
- When it comes to comparing Rivals and Scout they tied at 7-7 over the two classes when it came to kids where they had a difference of opinion. I guess the tiebreaker would be the Rivals overall star totals are closer to the current star totals than Scout, which as mentioned above, tends to inflate stars a touch more than Rivals, at least when it comes to Michigan signees over this two year period.
- Most overrated signees: Kyle Kalis, Terry Rihardson, David Dawson, Derrick green, Patrick Kugler, Shane Morris, Wyatt Shallman, Logan Tuley-Tillman.
- Most underrated signee: Willie Henry
- Josh Helmholdt and the class of 2012 three star kids: Most of those three stars were better than advertised. Wormley, Henry, Funchess, Chesson and Ojemudia are all current four or more in my ratings. Other threes have been solid contributors (Braden, Clark, etc....).
2012 Rivals Scout Current Grade Winner Comments
Blake Bars OL 4 3 2 Scout Overrated
Joe Bolden LB 4 4 3
Ben Braden OL 3 3 3
Jehu Chesson WR 3 3 4 Underrated
Jeremy Clark DB 3 3 3
Amara Darboh WR 4 4 4
Devin Funchess TE 3 4 4 Scout Underrated
Allen Gant DB 3 3 2
Matthew Godin DT 3 3 3
Willie Henry DT 3 3 5 Vastly Underrated
Sione Houma RB 3 3 3
Royce Jenkins-Stone LB 4 4 3 Overrated
Drake Johnson RB 3 3 3
Kyle Kalis OL 5 5 3 Vastly Overrated
Erik Magnuson OL 4 4 3 Overrated
Dennis Norfleet RB 4 4 3 Overrated
Mario Ojemudia DE 3 4 4 Scout
Ondre Pipkins DT 5 4 3 Scout Overrated
Terry Richardson DB 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated
Kaleb Ringer LB 3 3 2
James Ross LB 4 4 3 Overrated
Tom Strobel DE 4 4 3 Overrated
A.J. Williams TE 3 4 3 Rivals
Jarrod Wilson DB 4 4 4
Christopher Wormley DE 3 4 4 Scout Underrated
Total Points 89 91 79
2013
Kyle Bosch OL 4 4 3 Overrated (Issues)
Jake Butt TE 4 4 5 Underrated
Taco Charlton DE 4 4 4
David Dawson OL 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated
Reon Dawson ATH 3 3 2 Overrated
Ross Douglas DB 4 3 2 Scout Overrated
Jaron Dukes WR 3 3 2 Overrated
Chris Fox OL 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated (Injuries)
Ben Gedeon LB 4 4 4
Derrick Green RB 5 5 3 Vastly Overrated
Delano Hill DB 4 4 4
Khalid Hill TE 3 3 3
Maurice Hurst Jr. DT 3 4 3 Rivals
Da'Mario Jones WR 3 3 2 Overrated
Patrick Kugler OL 4 5 2 Rivals Vastly Overrated
Jourdan Lewis DB 4 4 5 Underrated
Mike McCray LB 4 4 4
Shane Morris QB 4 5 2 Rivals Vastly Overrated
Henry Poggi DT 4 4 3 Overrated
Dan Samuelson OL 3 4 2 Rivals Overrated
Wyatt Shallman ATH 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated
Deveon Smith RB 3 4 4 Scout
Channing Stribling DB 3 3 4 Underrated
Scott Sypniewski OL 2 3 2 Rivals
Dymonte Thomas DB 4 5 4 Rivals
Logan Tuley-Tillman OL 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated (Issues)
Csont'e York WR 3 3 2 Overrated
Total Points 98 104 80 Seven-Seven
We have enough data to already start to get a feeling for these two classes. The below table may be a bit messy to read but the first number is the Rivals star rating, the second number the Scout star rating and the third number the rating that I would currently give the player. For players where there was a divergence between the two services I would credit one service as a "winner" when its score was closer to the current grade. I then comment on kids that were overrated or underrated by the two services.
A few more notes and observations:
- Scout tends to rate our kids a bit more highly than Rivals. In the 2012 class Rivals gave Michigan commits a total of 89 stars compared to 91 stars from Scout. In 2013 the difference was even greater, with 98 for Rivals and 104 for Scout.
- My "current grades" total 79 for the 2012 class and 80 for the 2013 class. These lower scores are not necessarily anomalies. Virtually all incoming classes will end up with final grades lower than initial star ratings. This is due to the fact that, especially for the elite schools, most of the signees receive a "default three stars" but those that do not end up contributing will only end up with two stars. Moreover, unforeseen factors such as injuries, academic and disciplinary issues are included in the current scores, thereby bringing them down.
- What is of interest in comparing entering total stars to current stars is the "gap" between the two. The average gap is only 11 stars for the 2012 class but a very high 21 for the 2013 class. These gaps confirm more qualitative assessments that the 2012 class has had a higher percentage of hits while there have been quite a few misses in the 2013 class.
- When it comes to comparing Rivals and Scout they tied at 7-7 over the two classes when it came to kids where they had a difference of opinion. I guess the tiebreaker would be the Rivals overall star totals are closer to the current star totals than Scout, which as mentioned above, tends to inflate stars a touch more than Rivals, at least when it comes to Michigan signees over this two year period.
- Most overrated signees: Kyle Kalis, Terry Rihardson, David Dawson, Derrick green, Patrick Kugler, Shane Morris, Wyatt Shallman, Logan Tuley-Tillman.
- Most underrated signee: Willie Henry
- Josh Helmholdt and the class of 2012 three star kids: Most of those three stars were better than advertised. Wormley, Henry, Funchess, Chesson and Ojemudia are all current four or more in my ratings. Other threes have been solid contributors (Braden, Clark, etc....).
2012 Rivals Scout Current Grade Winner Comments
Blake Bars OL 4 3 2 Scout Overrated
Joe Bolden LB 4 4 3
Ben Braden OL 3 3 3
Jehu Chesson WR 3 3 4 Underrated
Jeremy Clark DB 3 3 3
Amara Darboh WR 4 4 4
Devin Funchess TE 3 4 4 Scout Underrated
Allen Gant DB 3 3 2
Matthew Godin DT 3 3 3
Willie Henry DT 3 3 5 Vastly Underrated
Sione Houma RB 3 3 3
Royce Jenkins-Stone LB 4 4 3 Overrated
Drake Johnson RB 3 3 3
Kyle Kalis OL 5 5 3 Vastly Overrated
Erik Magnuson OL 4 4 3 Overrated
Dennis Norfleet RB 4 4 3 Overrated
Mario Ojemudia DE 3 4 4 Scout
Ondre Pipkins DT 5 4 3 Scout Overrated
Terry Richardson DB 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated
Kaleb Ringer LB 3 3 2
James Ross LB 4 4 3 Overrated
Tom Strobel DE 4 4 3 Overrated
A.J. Williams TE 3 4 3 Rivals
Jarrod Wilson DB 4 4 4
Christopher Wormley DE 3 4 4 Scout Underrated
Total Points 89 91 79
2013
Kyle Bosch OL 4 4 3 Overrated (Issues)
Jake Butt TE 4 4 5 Underrated
Taco Charlton DE 4 4 4
David Dawson OL 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated
Reon Dawson ATH 3 3 2 Overrated
Ross Douglas DB 4 3 2 Scout Overrated
Jaron Dukes WR 3 3 2 Overrated
Chris Fox OL 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated (Injuries)
Ben Gedeon LB 4 4 4
Derrick Green RB 5 5 3 Vastly Overrated
Delano Hill DB 4 4 4
Khalid Hill TE 3 3 3
Maurice Hurst Jr. DT 3 4 3 Rivals
Da'Mario Jones WR 3 3 2 Overrated
Patrick Kugler OL 4 5 2 Rivals Vastly Overrated
Jourdan Lewis DB 4 4 5 Underrated
Mike McCray LB 4 4 4
Shane Morris QB 4 5 2 Rivals Vastly Overrated
Henry Poggi DT 4 4 3 Overrated
Dan Samuelson OL 3 4 2 Rivals Overrated
Wyatt Shallman ATH 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated
Deveon Smith RB 3 4 4 Scout
Channing Stribling DB 3 3 4 Underrated
Scott Sypniewski OL 2 3 2 Rivals
Dymonte Thomas DB 4 5 4 Rivals
Logan Tuley-Tillman OL 4 4 2 Vastly Overrated (Issues)
Csont'e York WR 3 3 2 Overrated
Total Points 98 104 80 Seven-Seven
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