On a slow news day I’ve been looking back at team stats during the Harbaugh era. A few stats jump out. In a weird and shortened 2020 season Michigan ran 213 pass plays to 182 running plays. It was the first time a Harbaugh team passed more than it ran. Some will attribute this to the fact that except for the Minnesota game, they were behind most of the time. But when Harbaugh first got to Michigan and was putting up 10 win seasons, the Wolverines were a run first team. In 2015 under Jake Rudock, Michigan only threw the ball 258 times. By contrast they ran 504 times. This included Jake running 58 times for a +166 yards. In the 2016 season, M ran the ball 22% more than they threw it. It was a similar number in 2017 although John O’Korn ran the ball 44 times and I’m guessing a lot of those were unplanned/unsuccessful runs since his rushing total for the season was -54 yards. The QB play and 4 or 5 big plays against the defense led directly to an 8-3 season. In 2018 M was 10-3 under Shea Patterson and once again Michigan ran it more than they threw it…223 passes against a whopping 560 running attempts. Shea ran 76 times for 273 yards that season. In 2019, it was a similar story to previous season but only a 9-4 record, due mainly to a drop in completion percentage by Shea and missed opportunities on both sides of the ball. In fairness to Shea, Josh Gattis brought a whole new scheme in 2019 and that probably impacted Shea’s performance.
While our fan base is frustrated by the losing to key rivals and the merry go round in the locker room, the stats say we are close to being a very good team. IMO, here are the 3 things Michigan needs to do to win a B1G championship:
1. Not give up on the run and make it the focal point of our offense. We have a great stable of running backs and talent on the OL. Win the LOS, win the game.
2. Be opportunistic in the passing game. Let’s be honest, except for the second half of the season for Rudock, QB play has been sub par. How many times has the deep ball been open and we’ve missed it? Keep the D honest so we can run the ball. I truly believe Cade will be our best QB since Jake.
3. Get off the field on 3rd down. Mark me as thrilled that Don Brown is gone. While his defenses could overwhelm sub par opponents (and especially QB’s with little deep ball potential) how many times in the last 4 years has Michigan given up first downs on 3rd and 10 yards or more plays? How many balls went over our heads? PI calls were abundant. How many simple crossing routes went for big plays? The D needs to be more consistent. It needs to be less predictable. It needs to game plan better for key opponents. Mike McDonald was the perfect hire to accomplish both. Hold OSU to under 30 points and they are very beatable.
One last word on OSU. Against ranked teams in the Harbaugh era, they are 7-5 when scoring less than 30 points. They have also been beaten by unranked Purdue, Iowa, and PSU teams. There is a formula for beating OSU and it hasn’t changed since we were having so much success 20 years ago. Run the ball and play tough defense.
Go Blue!
While our fan base is frustrated by the losing to key rivals and the merry go round in the locker room, the stats say we are close to being a very good team. IMO, here are the 3 things Michigan needs to do to win a B1G championship:
1. Not give up on the run and make it the focal point of our offense. We have a great stable of running backs and talent on the OL. Win the LOS, win the game.
2. Be opportunistic in the passing game. Let’s be honest, except for the second half of the season for Rudock, QB play has been sub par. How many times has the deep ball been open and we’ve missed it? Keep the D honest so we can run the ball. I truly believe Cade will be our best QB since Jake.
3. Get off the field on 3rd down. Mark me as thrilled that Don Brown is gone. While his defenses could overwhelm sub par opponents (and especially QB’s with little deep ball potential) how many times in the last 4 years has Michigan given up first downs on 3rd and 10 yards or more plays? How many balls went over our heads? PI calls were abundant. How many simple crossing routes went for big plays? The D needs to be more consistent. It needs to be less predictable. It needs to game plan better for key opponents. Mike McDonald was the perfect hire to accomplish both. Hold OSU to under 30 points and they are very beatable.
One last word on OSU. Against ranked teams in the Harbaugh era, they are 7-5 when scoring less than 30 points. They have also been beaten by unranked Purdue, Iowa, and PSU teams. There is a formula for beating OSU and it hasn’t changed since we were having so much success 20 years ago. Run the ball and play tough defense.
Go Blue!
