So Herbstreit makes a convincing case that Louisville is still a

[Reality Man]

top 4 team right now. Shouldn't punish a performance like that on the road and that close to winning.

Can't disagree with that assertion. That being said...Beating Colorado and Wisconsin and assume UM loses a close game on the road at OSU and Louisville doesn't lose a game. Doesn't UM have the better resume in theory?

MSU would have two losses and FSU has lost a couple of games. He is making the case that Louisville should get the nod into the BCS. I think Louisville has a lot going for them with Jackson and an upcoming game against Houston who beat an overrated Oklahoma team.

I give Louisville the nod for going on the road but as an earlier thread talked about...the game against Colorado is looking more relevant by the game. Colorado looks to be similar to a victory against FSU or Oklahoma.

Want UM to possibly sneak into the BCS playoffs? Root for Colorado.


RM

 

[ChicagoBlueFan]

top 4 team right now. Shouldn't punish a performance like that on the road and that close to winning.

Can't disagree with that assertion. That being said...Beating Colorado and Wisconsin and assume UM loses a close game on the road at OSU and Louisville doesn't lose a game. Doesn't UM have the better resume in theory?

MSU would have two losses and FSU has lost a couple of games. He is making the case that Louisville should get the nod into the BCS. I think Louisville has a lot going for them with Jackson and an upcoming game against Houston who beat an overrated Oklahoma team.

I give Louisville the nod for going on the road but as an earlier thread talked about...the game against Colorado is looking more relevant by the game. Colorado looks to be similar to a victory against FSU or Oklahoma.

Want UM to possibly sneak into the BCS playoffs? Root for Colorado.


RM

I disagree strongly. At some point, wins matter. I get that 11-1 against a tough schedule is more impressive than 12-0 vs cupcakes. But he was sounding like you could be 4-8 as long as you played a tough schedule and played hard in the 8 losses. I don't think so.

 

[Reality Man]

You could take his argument to the extreme but he was really saying is Louisville has been more impressive as a whole than UM. I think that might be a reach since didn't Clemson have some close calls so far this year?

I get the point that it's about the best team and not necessarily about a win/loss but as you said you have to be careful because then wins and losses could in theory not really matter which benefits a school like UM. What happens if UM only loses to the #2 team in the country in a close contest on the road. Wouldn't that prove UM is one of the best 4 teams?


RM

 

[Jake_from_state_farm]

I listened to these dipshits this morning. They love them some Clemson and Louisville! The big problem that I have is there is very little defense. If it's bama, osu, Clemson and Louisville then my $ is on bama and osu. Why? Because they recognize that DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS! With that being said, you have to have good offense with playmakers, and good special teams always helps! But with a team like Louisville that all they try to do is get Jackson to make a play, seriously, get off my tv screen!

 

[Jake_from_state_farm]

Perfect example: Jackson was so frustrated early on that he couldn't get a first down every attempt when they were at third down! Well boo friggen hoo! That's because they're offense is designed to hurry up, move the chains, score td's. so late in the game, put everything on jacksons shoulders, and hope "he" wins it. Guess what, didn't happen. He threw to some jacktard who didn't know where the sticks were and they were 5' from his damn eyes! And that's a championship team? You think one dude can beat bama when he flips out when he goes three and out against clemsons defense? That's just ridiculous

 

[ChicagoBlueFan]

You could take his argument to the extreme but he was really saying is Louisville has been more impressive as a whole than UM. I think that might be a reach since didn't Clemson have some close calls so far this year?

I get the point that it's about the best team and not necessarily about a win/loss but as you said you have to be careful because then wins and losses could in theory not really matter which benefits a school like UM. What happens if UM only loses to the #2 team in the country in a close contest on the road. Wouldn't that prove UM is one of the best 4 teams?


RM

A few year's back UM's only loss was to #1 TUOS on the road. But no rematch in the NC game, because "rematches are BAD" and UM "had their shot".
Amazingly, when Alabama loses to LSU in the regular season, they DO get a rematch in the NC game. Rematches are no longer BAD, and the "had their shot" line never comes up.
Kind of a tangent, I know. But to me, Herbie was almost discounting wins and losses and saying if you look strong while losing, no big deal. Wins still matter.
It seems that if you're the right team or the right conference, you can sell this line of thinking a little more easily.
Somebody on another site made a good point-people are saying UM looked sloppy yesterday and the offense didn't impress, etc. Put LSU and Bama jerseys on the two teams and that game is somehow transformed into a classic heavyweight battle between two powerhouses.

 

[michnittlion]

A few year's back UM's only loss was to # TUOS on the road. But no rematch in the NC game, because "rematches are BAD" and UM "had their shot".
Amazingly, when Alabama loses to LSU in the regular season, they DO get a rematch in the NC game. Rematches are no longer BAD, and the "had their shot" line never comes up.

Of course, there were only 2 spots in 2006 --- the "had their shot" argument had A LOT more merit in that environment with less available slots versus now, when there are 4 spots.

If I had to "rank" teams by their likelihood of making the playoff right now, it would be:

(1,2,3) SEC, ACC and Big Ten Champions are virtually guaranteed to get in if they have 1 or less losses.

(4) An undefeated Pac-12 Champion (e.g., Washington) is definitely in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) An undefeated Houston gets in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) An undefeated Big XII Champion (Baylor, WVU still possible) gets in. I think these teams are below Houston given Baylor & WVU's weak OOC schedules (and Houston's strong OOC schedule). If this doesn't exist,

(4) A 1-loss Pac-12 Champion gets in. If you really look at things, outside of Washington, it's kind of unlikely that we get a 1-loss Pac-12 Champion. Only 5 teams have 1 or less losses and these teams are going to beat each other up. Anyway, if a 1-loss Pac-12 Champion doesn't exist,

(4) Any 1-loss non-Conference Champions from the ACC, SEC and Big Ten get consideration. E.g., this is where 11-1 Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, Texas A&M, 12-1 Tennessee (losing in the SEC Title game) teams would/should theoretically slot. These teams would/should get consideration OVER

(4) A 1-loss Big XII Champion.

 

[Jake_from_state_farm]

Of course, there were only 2 spots in 2006 --- the "had their shot" argument had A LOT more merit in that environment with less available slots versus now, when there are 4 spots.

If I had to "rank" teams by their likelihood of making the playoff right now, it would be:

(1,2,3) SEC, ACC and Big Ten Champions are virtually guaranteed to get in if they have 1 or less losses.

(4) An undefeated Pac-12 Champion (e.g., Washington) is definitely in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) An undefeated Big XII Champion (Baylor, WVU still possible) gets in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) An undefeated Houston gets in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) A 1-loss Pac-12 Champion gets in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) Any 1-loss non-Conference Champions from the ACC, SEC and Big Ten get consideration. E.g., this is where 11-1 Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, Texas A&M, Tennessee (losing in the SEC Title game) teams would theoretically slot. These teams would get consideration OVER

(4) A 1-loss Big XII Champion.

But your votes don't count. The committee has said, if the playoffs started today, it would be bama, osu, Clemson and Louisville. That's ridiculous on many levels. That looks like a group of douche bags that want bama to win it all

 

[Jake_from_state_farm]

I'm guessing that idiot going back and forth with CBF (tomfleet) is on the playoff committee. Cuz that logic is blatant ignorance

 

[michnittlion]

But your votes don't count. The committee has said, if the playoffs started today, it would be bama, osu, Clemson and Louisville. That's ridiculous on many levels. That looks like a group of douche bags that want bama to win it all

It's not your fault --- I'm not attacking you ---- but I want to literally SHOOT PEOPLE who say "well, if the playoffs started today, the teams that would get in are A, B, C, and D."

The season does not end today!!!!!

And the only things that would make "the season end today" would be something on the order of (1) an alien invasion of Earth, (2) outbreak of war, or (3) a nuclear missile striking an American city.

And, of course, if any of those things happen --- Kirk, Lee, Jesse Palmer and Mark May discussing "Who's In?" is going to be pretty low on the list of priorities.

 

[GoBlue_since1985]

A few year's back UM's only loss was to # TUOS on the road. But no rematch in the NC game, because "rematches are BAD" and UM "had their shot".
Amazingly, when Alabama loses to LSU in the regular season, they DO get a rematch in the NC game. Rematches are no longer BAD, and the "had their shot" line never comes up.
Kind of a tangent, I know. But to me, Herbie was almost discounting wins and losses and saying if you look strong while losing, no big deal. Wins still matter.
It seems that if you're the right team or the right conference, you can sell this line of thinking a little more easily.
Somebody on another site made a good point-people are saying UM looked sloppy yesterday and the offense didn't impress, etc. Put LSU and Bama jerseys on the two teams and that game is somehow transformed into a classic heavyweight battle between two powerhouses.

Ugh. Couldn't agree with you more. That lsu/bama game that ended with a score of 6-9 I believe was described to me by one lsu redneck as "a chess match between two amazing coaches". Yeah, ok.
The UM and Wisci game was far better then that one.

 

[Jake_from_state_farm]

It's not your fault --- I'm not attacking you ---- but I want to literally SHOOT PEOPLE who say "well, if the playoffs started today, the teams that would get in are A, B, C, and D."

The season does not end today!!!!!

And the only things that would make "the season end today" would be something on the order of (1) an alien invasion of Earth, (2) outbreak of war, or (3) a nuclear missile striking an American city.

And, of course, if any of those things happen --- Kirk, Lee, Jesse Palmer and Mark May discussing "Who's In?" is going to be pretty low on the list of priorities.

Uhhhh I said the playoff committee said that's who would be in if they had to pick today! Not the retards that work for espn. I know they aren't picking who is in today, but simply showing how the committee thinks! But thanks for letting me know that's it's not all my fault. There's hope for me.....somewhere

 

[michnittlion]

Uhhhh I said the playoff committee said that's who would be in if they had to pick today! Not the retards that work for espn. I know they aren't picking who is in today, but simply showing how the committee thinks! But thanks for letting me know that's it's not all my fault. There's hope for me.....somewhere

I was/am not trying to be combative. It's not just ESPN, I honestly think that the playoff committee meeting weekly and releasing their rankings every Tuesday (from late October onward) is 100% useless and stupid.

But, yes, if the season DID end today? Michigan really doesn't have one of the 4 best resumes. Zero road games outside of AA as of yet. Even Washington's OT win at Arizona, at least it's a road game. I guess I'd have Bama, Clemson, Washington & Ohio State.

 

[Reality Man]

Of course, there were only 2 spots in 2006 --- the "had their shot" argument had A LOT more merit in that environment with less available slots versus now, when there are 4 spots.

If I had to "rank" teams by their likelihood of making the playoff right now, it would be:

(1,2,3) SEC, ACC and Big Ten Champions are virtually guaranteed to get in if they have 1 or less losses.

(4) An undefeated Pac-12 Champion (e.g., Washington) is definitely in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) An undefeated Houston gets in. If this doesn't exist,

(4) An undefeated Big XII Champion (Baylor, WVU still possible) gets in. I think these teams are below Houston given Baylor & WVU's weak OOC schedules (and Houston's strong OOC schedule). If this doesn't exist,

(4) A 1-loss Pac-12 Champion gets in. If you really look at things, outside of Washington, it's kind of unlikely that we get a 1-loss Pac-12 Champion. Only 5 teams have 1 or less losses and these teams are going to beat each other up. Anyway, if a 1-loss Pac-12 Champion doesn't exist,

(4) Any 1-loss non-Conference Champions from the ACC, SEC and Big Ten get consideration. E.g., this is where 11-1 Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, Texas A&M, 12-1 Tennessee (losing in the SEC Title game) teams would/should theoretically slot. These teams would/should get consideration OVER

(4) A 1-loss Big XII Champion.

I don't have any problem with your logic but as you said...I want to project down the line. In the context of OSU and UM...what is the probability that OSU and UM both have 1 loss? Probably somewhat high (60%) but not guaranteed.

My point is that both of these teams are going to have to be perceived at a minimum of the top 5 teams after the season plays out.

Now follow me. Is UW really that good? Almost lost to UA. Not saying they aren't really good for something tells me a Pac 12 team is going to have at least one loss and the Pac 12 rep will not be perceived as better than a one loss UM/OSU team assuming that last game is competitive.

The Big 12? Again...I don't see someone coming out of that conference without a loss. See Houston who will play Louisville who I think may beat them and if not...UM/OSU are a bigger NAME than Houston. Don't discount committee politics.

I think there is a very good chance of a 1 loss BT team getting in unless the West side wins the championship game.

All things being equal...a one loss BT non championship team will trump another 1 loss conference team except for Alabama.


RM

 

[Reality Man]

I was/am not trying to be combative. It's not just ESPN, I honestly think that the playoff committee meeting weekly and releasing their rankings every Tuesday (from late October onward) is 100% useless and stupid.

But, yes, if the season DID end today? Michigan really doesn't have one of the 4 best resumes. Zero road games outside of AA as of yet. Even Washington's OT win at Arizona, at least it's a road game. I guess I'd have Bama, Clemson, Washington & Ohio State.

I agree with your pov. UM is not getting the national acknowledgement because Colorado isn't seen as really good (unknown) and UM has played at home. It has a problem now in the sense that a MSU win on the road will be discounted along with Iowa.

All that being said it does have a couple of things going for itself.

1. The name....MICHIGAN (Ask Saban about the prestige of UM when they got the better bowl game over MSU)

2. It's a battle against OSU on the road. Playing an undefeated road top #2 team on the road (somewhat likely) will give them the chance to prove they are among the best 4 teams. This goes to what Herbstreit is trying to communicate...it's not 1983 but 2016. Who are the 4 best teams. Is UM or anyone else for that matter among the 4 best teams if they have ONE loss and that loss in on the road in a close game to the #2 ranked team in the nation?

See the difference between UM and UW. UM is getting the chance to LOSE to the #2 team in the nation hypothetically where UW isn't getting the chance to lose to any high end team. See Louisville from last night. Herbstreit is saying a great LOSS is better than many wins...see UM vs. Colorado.

Louisville has one thing going for them...Lamar Jackson. People want to see him. UM does have Peppers.


RM

 

[ChicagoBlueFan]

Ugh. Couldn't agree with you more. That lsu/bama game that ended with a score of 6-9 I believe was described to me by one lsu redneck as "a chess match between two amazing coaches". Yeah, ok.
The UM and Wisci game was far better then that one.

AGP.
If you put SEC unis on the teams and showed the UM-Wisc game, the ESPN guys would be jizzing themselves over what a " hard hitting" and masterful game it was. And of course the winner would be a frontrunner for a playoff spot.

 

[Code Blue]

A few year's back UM's only loss was to #1 TUOS on the road. But no rematch in the NC game, because "rematches are BAD" and UM "had their shot".
Amazingly, when Alabama loses to LSU in the regular season, they DO get a rematch in the NC game. Rematches are no longer BAD, and the "had their shot" line never comes up.
Kind of a tangent, I know. But to me, Herbie was almost discounting wins and losses and saying if you look strong while losing, no big deal. Wins still matter.
It seems that if you're the right team or the right conference, you can sell this line of thinking a little more easily.
Somebody on another site made a good point-people are saying UM looked sloppy yesterday and the offense didn't impress, etc. Put LSU and Bama jerseys on the two teams and that game is somehow transformed into a classic heavyweight battle between two powerhouses.

It seems to depend on which conference is being spoken of. If it is the Big 10, well then, they are [sarcasm on] obviously [sarcasm off] the weaker conference. The other thing is that, while I think that Herbie does a decent job of staying neutral most of the time, I suspect that if it was OSU at risk of being left out to that Louisville team, his tune would change. Just wait, the calls for 2 SEC teams to make or it or 2 ACC teams to make it will get louder every week.

 

[Steve91562]

Herbstreit is a company man. ESPN will always pump the SEC and ACC. Thought Michigan guys were smart enough not to read or watch that drivel.

 

[tarun262]

What Michnitlion said is absolutely true. At the end of the season once it all plays out - L'ville will have a hard time getting in. Their win against FSU looks pretty bad now and the rest of their schedule is weak - I think they will demolish Houston. I would argue that let's say UM and Nebraska played in the championship game (BIG), I would argue that the loser has a better shot of making the playoffs then L'ville.

Still a long season so Week 5 projections are completely irrelevant. And since playoffs don't start anytime soon, why the heck do we care?

 

[detroitjohn]

I've always had a hard time with the idea of a team getting into a playoff without winning their division at the least and preferably their conference. If UM wins the conference championship, they're in regardless. If UM wins the division and loses the conference championship, say in a Wisky rematch, bets are off. An 11-1, non-division champion UM should not go to the playoff, the conference championship is too important and there are likely too many other qualified teams.

 

[detroitjohn]

Want UM to possibly sneak into the BCS playoffs? Root for Colorado.
RM

I'm not interested in UM sneaking into anything, win the division and conference and we are in. If we don't, then we likely are shut out and that's fine for me.

 

[Reality Man]

I've always had a hard time with the idea of a team getting into a playoff without winning their division at the least and preferably their conference. If UM wins the conference championship, they're in regardless. If UM wins the division and loses the conference championship, say in a Wisky rematch, bets are off. An 11-1, non-division champion UM should not go to the playoff, the conference championship is too important and there are likely too many other qualified teams.

Best 4 teams. Is a 1 loss OSU or UM better than a 2 team loss conference champion? Maybe. I would agree that if a 1 loss OSU or UM is up against a Pac 12 or ACC conference champion with 1 loss is going to be a tough sell especially with UM because they won't necessarily have a quality road win now that MSU and Iowa are stinking up the joint.


RM

 

[DrCorona]

Just too damn difficult to compare apples to apples until you hit the stretch drive in November.