Yesterday: 2-1
This week: 6-2
We've had a HOT start to the Madness, and the absolute Madness begins today.
Pour a beverage, go to your favorite legal sportsbook, and let's own Day 1 of March Madness.
Here's a breakdown of EVERY game with a pick on each, including my picks at the bottom. Again, I'm not PICKING every game, but I'm breaking it down for you guys, then adding my picks at the end.
The games are listed by the time they're being played, fittingly starting with Michigan/Colorado State.
In an effort to engage our STE members to stay locked to this thread throughout the day, I'm going to post the early games now and the later games around 4 p.m. We'll start with the first eight games of the day (the matinee) and then the final nine (the nightcap) thereafter.
As Kenny Omega would say: without further ado...
THE MATINEE:
6 Colorado State vs. 11 Michigan (-2), 12:15PM
Signals: Colorado State is getting a ton of sharp money, sharp movements, and even a system that tracks slow-paced underdogs in March Madness that boasts a 60% success rate. The line has moved in its direction, too, moving a half-point from 2.5 to 2. It's hard to analyze whether this is a Devante' Jones reaction from the sharps, but you have to wonder if they're undervaluing his impact. Is Jones worth more than a half-point? That's what you have to ask yourself before wagering. If he's worth more, then you're getting value on Colorado State. If he isn't, then you're getting Michigan value. There's strong sharp money on the under with line movement from 139.5 to 137.5.
If you're betting: COLST +2, u137.5
4 Providence (-2.5) vs. 13 South Dakota State, 12:40PM
Signals: Not much going on with the spread. It's stayed at 2.5, and although Action is showing sharp money, it's relatively low and shouldn't be considered difference-making. On the other hand, the under is getting hammered. The line moved from 149.5 to as low as 147.5 in some markets.
If you're betting: u147.5
8 Boise State vs. 9 Memphis (-3.5), 1:45PM
Signals: The line swung from 3.5 to 1.5 after opening, and as of Wednesday, is back out to its original mark at 3.5. Sharp signals have come in on Boise, but the line's movement is all over the place, and this might be the most challenging game to call in the "second" round. 96% of the money is on the under, compared to 50% of tickets. That line has moved from 136.5 down to 133.5. The big money is typically accompanied by smart money, but there are no sharps here. Regardless, the money signal is something we love to tail here STE.
If you're betting: u133.5
1 Baylor (-20.5) vs. 16 Norfolk State, 2:00PM
Signals: There's nothing on the spread here. I'm not touching it. However, 96% of the money is on the under and the line has moved a half-point lower. There's a light sharp signal on the over.
If you're betting: u137.5
3 Tennessee (-17.5) vs. 14 Longwood, 2:45PM
Signals: The line moved a half-point in Longwood's direction with 74% of the cash on its side compared to 45% of bets. Additionally, the total dipped from 135 to 132.5 with 68% of the money on it compared to 27% of tickets.
If you're betting: You guessed it: u132.5
5 Iowa (-9.5) vs. 12 Richmond, 3:10PM
Signals: Small sharp signal on Iowa, but the line hasn't moved. It's at 10 in a few markets but is sitting at 9.5 in most. And, folks, don't laugh: the under is getting hammered with 84% of the money, 45% of bets, and strong sharp signals. The total moved from 154.5 to 151 and even 150 in some markets.
If you're betting: u151
1 Gonzaga (-22.5) vs. 16 Georgia State, 4:15PM
Signals: There's quite a bit of action on Georgia State here and the line moved from 24.5 down to 22.5 because of it. It's still sitting at 23.5 in some markets. Despite 19% of tickets on GST, 58% of the money is siding with them. The under has significant sharp signals despite no line movement, so this might be a sneaky good pick based on all the other totals moving multiple points lower. It's varying at 149.5 and 148.5 in the market. A 148.5 consensus as the games loom closer would be telling.
If you're betting: GAST +22.5, u149.5
8 UNC (-3.5) vs. 9 Marquette, 4:30PM
Signals: This is the least exciting game, signals-wise, of the slate. There's little-to-no action on the spread. UNC has a small sharp signal, but the line has moved from 3 out to 3.5 and 4 in some markets. Marquette is a slow-paced underdog, though, so it matches the system we mentioned earlier with a 60% win rate, per The Action Network. The total is getting little action with light signals on the under.
If you're betting: UNC -3.5
JUSTICE'S MATINEE PICKS:
SDST +2.5
PROV/SDST u147.5
UNC -3.5
IOWA/RICH u151
BOISE/MEM u133.5
COL. ST. +2.5 (unless we get news Jones intends to play)
This week: 6-2
We've had a HOT start to the Madness, and the absolute Madness begins today.
Pour a beverage, go to your favorite legal sportsbook, and let's own Day 1 of March Madness.
Here's a breakdown of EVERY game with a pick on each, including my picks at the bottom. Again, I'm not PICKING every game, but I'm breaking it down for you guys, then adding my picks at the end.
The games are listed by the time they're being played, fittingly starting with Michigan/Colorado State.
In an effort to engage our STE members to stay locked to this thread throughout the day, I'm going to post the early games now and the later games around 4 p.m. We'll start with the first eight games of the day (the matinee) and then the final nine (the nightcap) thereafter.
As Kenny Omega would say: without further ado...
THE MATINEE:
6 Colorado State vs. 11 Michigan (-2), 12:15PM
Signals: Colorado State is getting a ton of sharp money, sharp movements, and even a system that tracks slow-paced underdogs in March Madness that boasts a 60% success rate. The line has moved in its direction, too, moving a half-point from 2.5 to 2. It's hard to analyze whether this is a Devante' Jones reaction from the sharps, but you have to wonder if they're undervaluing his impact. Is Jones worth more than a half-point? That's what you have to ask yourself before wagering. If he's worth more, then you're getting value on Colorado State. If he isn't, then you're getting Michigan value. There's strong sharp money on the under with line movement from 139.5 to 137.5.
If you're betting: COLST +2, u137.5
4 Providence (-2.5) vs. 13 South Dakota State, 12:40PM
Signals: Not much going on with the spread. It's stayed at 2.5, and although Action is showing sharp money, it's relatively low and shouldn't be considered difference-making. On the other hand, the under is getting hammered. The line moved from 149.5 to as low as 147.5 in some markets.
If you're betting: u147.5
8 Boise State vs. 9 Memphis (-3.5), 1:45PM
Signals: The line swung from 3.5 to 1.5 after opening, and as of Wednesday, is back out to its original mark at 3.5. Sharp signals have come in on Boise, but the line's movement is all over the place, and this might be the most challenging game to call in the "second" round. 96% of the money is on the under, compared to 50% of tickets. That line has moved from 136.5 down to 133.5. The big money is typically accompanied by smart money, but there are no sharps here. Regardless, the money signal is something we love to tail here STE.
If you're betting: u133.5
1 Baylor (-20.5) vs. 16 Norfolk State, 2:00PM
Signals: There's nothing on the spread here. I'm not touching it. However, 96% of the money is on the under and the line has moved a half-point lower. There's a light sharp signal on the over.
If you're betting: u137.5
3 Tennessee (-17.5) vs. 14 Longwood, 2:45PM
Signals: The line moved a half-point in Longwood's direction with 74% of the cash on its side compared to 45% of bets. Additionally, the total dipped from 135 to 132.5 with 68% of the money on it compared to 27% of tickets.
If you're betting: You guessed it: u132.5
5 Iowa (-9.5) vs. 12 Richmond, 3:10PM
Signals: Small sharp signal on Iowa, but the line hasn't moved. It's at 10 in a few markets but is sitting at 9.5 in most. And, folks, don't laugh: the under is getting hammered with 84% of the money, 45% of bets, and strong sharp signals. The total moved from 154.5 to 151 and even 150 in some markets.
If you're betting: u151
1 Gonzaga (-22.5) vs. 16 Georgia State, 4:15PM
Signals: There's quite a bit of action on Georgia State here and the line moved from 24.5 down to 22.5 because of it. It's still sitting at 23.5 in some markets. Despite 19% of tickets on GST, 58% of the money is siding with them. The under has significant sharp signals despite no line movement, so this might be a sneaky good pick based on all the other totals moving multiple points lower. It's varying at 149.5 and 148.5 in the market. A 148.5 consensus as the games loom closer would be telling.
If you're betting: GAST +22.5, u149.5
8 UNC (-3.5) vs. 9 Marquette, 4:30PM
Signals: This is the least exciting game, signals-wise, of the slate. There's little-to-no action on the spread. UNC has a small sharp signal, but the line has moved from 3 out to 3.5 and 4 in some markets. Marquette is a slow-paced underdog, though, so it matches the system we mentioned earlier with a 60% win rate, per The Action Network. The total is getting little action with light signals on the under.
If you're betting: UNC -3.5
JUSTICE'S MATINEE PICKS:
SDST +2.5
PROV/SDST u147.5
UNC -3.5
IOWA/RICH u151
BOISE/MEM u133.5
COL. ST. +2.5 (unless we get news Jones intends to play)
