It's arguably the best sports day of the year.
I don't want to ramble like I tend to sometimes in these forewords, so instead, I'll use it to analyze the game before rolling into the LONG list of picks we have tonight.
The consensus I've heard this week is that the Rams have all of the advantages on offense, defense, and special teams. While I agree with that, I don't think it's quite that simple. The Bengals have been perceived to be worse than each team they've faced in the playoffs. They've also got the hottest kicker in the league right now in Evan McPherson, which is all the more important come playoff time.
I do buy into the matchups, though, especially Los Angeles' front against Cinicinatti's putrid offensive line that's put Joey B in danger week in and week out. That, to me, is the difference in the outcome, straight up, however, against the spread, I think the kickers are the difference. I don't see either defense giving up at-will yardage, but I do see a lot of bend-don't-break in the near future, leading to field goals galore -- which has been the story of this year's NFL Playoffs.
I like Cam Akers, Odell Beckham, and Tee Higgins a lot tonight. I think these are all non-primary contributors who will sneakily present value both in Vegas and on the field. Additionally, the Ja'Marr Chase numbers are justified but in going up against Jalen Ramsey, I can't get on board with tailing him.
So with all of the above now noted and covered, let's release our SUPER BOWL SPECIAL PICKS!
My strategy here is to one-unit everything that is -110, or close to it. Our higher odds picks, treat like a Dog of the Day and sprinkle with 0.25 units or 0.5.
Super Bowl Picks:
THE BASICS
Spread: CIN +4.5 -- The hook is the key for me here. At -4, I'm probably staying away from the spread entirely but a hook on a four-point spread is significant in football betting
Total: u48.5 -- As I stated in the foreword, I think this is a bend-don't-break defensive game with field goals galore, keeping us at the under.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORERS
Cam Akers +110
Odell Beckham, Jr. +130
Tee Higgins +165
FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Cam Akers +900
PROPS
Cooper Kupp Longest Reception o28.5
Matt Gay o7.5 points
Joe Burrow o2.5 rush attempts -- I see Burrow running for his life more than three times for positive yardage
Joe Burrow o.5 interceptions -- I see Burrow throwing an interception in desperation mode late in the fourth
Matthew Stafford o2 pass TDs -- I see Stafford, at least, pushing this line with the weapons he has around him
Matthew Stafford longest completion o38.5 -- hello, Cooper Kupp, we're looking at you, son
Tee Higgins o5.5 RECs -- I'm not buying into the Bengals offense much tonight, it's why I stayed away from Chase/Mixon props and took the under, however, I love Higgins as a 1B option and he's played well all postseason.
Pay attention to this thread as there might be more. I'm heavily debating a National Anthem special.
Happy SUPER BOWL, friends!
I don't want to ramble like I tend to sometimes in these forewords, so instead, I'll use it to analyze the game before rolling into the LONG list of picks we have tonight.
The consensus I've heard this week is that the Rams have all of the advantages on offense, defense, and special teams. While I agree with that, I don't think it's quite that simple. The Bengals have been perceived to be worse than each team they've faced in the playoffs. They've also got the hottest kicker in the league right now in Evan McPherson, which is all the more important come playoff time.
I do buy into the matchups, though, especially Los Angeles' front against Cinicinatti's putrid offensive line that's put Joey B in danger week in and week out. That, to me, is the difference in the outcome, straight up, however, against the spread, I think the kickers are the difference. I don't see either defense giving up at-will yardage, but I do see a lot of bend-don't-break in the near future, leading to field goals galore -- which has been the story of this year's NFL Playoffs.
I like Cam Akers, Odell Beckham, and Tee Higgins a lot tonight. I think these are all non-primary contributors who will sneakily present value both in Vegas and on the field. Additionally, the Ja'Marr Chase numbers are justified but in going up against Jalen Ramsey, I can't get on board with tailing him.
So with all of the above now noted and covered, let's release our SUPER BOWL SPECIAL PICKS!
My strategy here is to one-unit everything that is -110, or close to it. Our higher odds picks, treat like a Dog of the Day and sprinkle with 0.25 units or 0.5.
Super Bowl Picks:
THE BASICS
Spread: CIN +4.5 -- The hook is the key for me here. At -4, I'm probably staying away from the spread entirely but a hook on a four-point spread is significant in football betting
Total: u48.5 -- As I stated in the foreword, I think this is a bend-don't-break defensive game with field goals galore, keeping us at the under.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORERS
Cam Akers +110
Odell Beckham, Jr. +130
Tee Higgins +165
FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Cam Akers +900
PROPS
Cooper Kupp Longest Reception o28.5
Matt Gay o7.5 points
Joe Burrow o2.5 rush attempts -- I see Burrow running for his life more than three times for positive yardage
Joe Burrow o.5 interceptions -- I see Burrow throwing an interception in desperation mode late in the fourth
Matthew Stafford o2 pass TDs -- I see Stafford, at least, pushing this line with the weapons he has around him
Matthew Stafford longest completion o38.5 -- hello, Cooper Kupp, we're looking at you, son
Tee Higgins o5.5 RECs -- I'm not buying into the Bengals offense much tonight, it's why I stayed away from Chase/Mixon props and took the under, however, I love Higgins as a 1B option and he's played well all postseason.
Pay attention to this thread as there might be more. I'm heavily debating a National Anthem special.
Happy SUPER BOWL, friends!
