Picks for tonight!
NBA
9 PM: Celtics @ Warriors
I'm not on either side here because there are battling signals. Sharp money is on the Celtics, but the line moved out to GSW -4 after opening at 3.5. The odds are even, so I'm staying away from it from a betting perspective. However, I love the over. We know how many shooters will be on the court in this series, and we know they're at the tail end of a gruesome playoff gauntlet. On top of that, the line moved out to 214 after opening at 211.5. I see this being a high-scoring Game 1. I'm on a couple of props to complement this pick, too.
Pick: Over 214
Props:
J. Poole o21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast
K. Thompson o27.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast
R. Williams o14.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast
MLB
8:05 PM: Cardinals @ Cubs
I'm on another total, this time in Chicago. The public is on the over, but 81% of the money is on the under. With the total set at 8.5 runs, you're getting great odds at -104 on a pick bet that's commanded a heavy cash flow. That's one you have to love, even if you're wrong.
8:40 PM: Braves @ Rockies
Again, a total, and it's a fun one, as it always is in Colorado. The ball flies at Coors, and the signals are, too. As far as the numbers in this one, Colorado's C.J. Cron kills the ball against righties, hitting .322. The Braves rank sixth or better in hard-hit ball rate, barrel %, exit velocity, and xSLG. As a team, Atlanta has the league's best xwOBACon (expected weighted On Base Average On Contact). I know, a mouthful. It's how often you get on base on batted balls. Moving on, both pitchers are not matched to face these offenses in this ballpark with the way the balls are hit in Colorado. It's the first time I've gone signal-free on a pick, but this has over written all over it. The inflated line encourages me because it's meant to scare you into the under. I'll play contrarian here.
Pick: Over 11.5
NBA
9 PM: Celtics @ Warriors
I'm not on either side here because there are battling signals. Sharp money is on the Celtics, but the line moved out to GSW -4 after opening at 3.5. The odds are even, so I'm staying away from it from a betting perspective. However, I love the over. We know how many shooters will be on the court in this series, and we know they're at the tail end of a gruesome playoff gauntlet. On top of that, the line moved out to 214 after opening at 211.5. I see this being a high-scoring Game 1. I'm on a couple of props to complement this pick, too.
Pick: Over 214
Props:
J. Poole o21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast
K. Thompson o27.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast
R. Williams o14.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast
MLB
8:05 PM: Cardinals @ Cubs
I'm on another total, this time in Chicago. The public is on the over, but 81% of the money is on the under. With the total set at 8.5 runs, you're getting great odds at -104 on a pick bet that's commanded a heavy cash flow. That's one you have to love, even if you're wrong.
8:40 PM: Braves @ Rockies
Again, a total, and it's a fun one, as it always is in Colorado. The ball flies at Coors, and the signals are, too. As far as the numbers in this one, Colorado's C.J. Cron kills the ball against righties, hitting .322. The Braves rank sixth or better in hard-hit ball rate, barrel %, exit velocity, and xSLG. As a team, Atlanta has the league's best xwOBACon (expected weighted On Base Average On Contact). I know, a mouthful. It's how often you get on base on batted balls. Moving on, both pitchers are not matched to face these offenses in this ballpark with the way the balls are hit in Colorado. It's the first time I've gone signal-free on a pick, but this has over written all over it. The inflated line encourages me because it's meant to scare you into the under. I'll play contrarian here.
Pick: Over 11.5
