MLB
7:10 PM: Orioles @ Tigers
OK, I know what you're thinking. The signals are staring me down, though, as the Tigers have 88% of the money compared to 57% of tickets and all of the smart money that's pushed the line out to -149. Baltimore's starter, RHP Jordan Lyles, is the driving force in taking Detroit as he's allowed seven hits in three-straight games while allowing nine runs. His last two starts, despite the seven hits, were quality starts. But something's gotta give, considering how soundly he's been hit. Lyles has a poor K% (17.6) with a 40.7 Hard Hit% and a dreadful average exit velocity of 90.7. Worst than all, though, are his BAA (batting average against) numbers; hitters average a .372 xwOBA, .293 xBA, and.488 xSLG. It means that hitters are *expected* to have that average against him with a ceiling to be even better. To put it simply, teams have hit Lyles well but left many runners on base. Now, are the Tigers the team to bet on to do that?
Well, no, their offense stinks. However, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is on the bump, and while he has similar struggles in avg EV/Hard Hit%, hitters aren't nearly as successful. Rodriguez's xBA is .245 with a 23% K-rate and 8.1% walk rate -- terrific numbers. On the road against lefties, Baltimore has a high K-rate and a low walk rate, both ranking in the bottom ten of the league. Additionally, as a team, it has a low xWOBA and xSLG. Back to Detroit's offense, Lyles' low K-rate and low walk-rate plays into Detroit's hands. The Tigers have five players with poor K-rates. Still, as a team, they have one of the highest Zone Swing% in the league, meaning if a pitcher is throwing strikes in the zone, they're swinging, and given Lyles' approach to throwing it in the zone as much as he does, bettors and the numbers believe there will be enough offense out of the Tigers to win this one.
Pick: Tigers ML
8:10PM: Twins @ Guardians
The total is getting ran to the bank here as the signals are all over an under between these two clubs. Cleveland's offense doesn't have a lot of pop right now as the majority of its lineup has poor Hard Hit% and against Sonny Gray (MIN), it won't get any easier. Gray keeps hitters at an average EV under 88mph with an excellent 36% Hard Hit rate. What's more, hitters facing Gray have an xBA of .221 and strikeout over 28% of the time. Expect a quiet night for Cleveland's offense. The Twins' offense is one of the better lineups in the league in most offensive analytics, but have team xBA that ranks in the bottom ten. They hit the ball hard and usually far, as they slug it with the best of them and don't have any concerns with their chase rates. Aaron Civale is on the bump for the Guardians and while his EV/Hard Hit rate aren't ideal, his xBA of .268 (not great) should keep the Twins honest. There's a mismatch between Gray & Cleveland's lineup. The catch here is both clubs' bullpens rank sixth and seventh, respectively, in ERA with good WHIPs (Cleveland's is the third-best). The signals and numbers are enough to agree with the line at 8.
Pick: under 8
Props:
- B. Rust o2.5 SOG (NHL)
- E. Rodriguez o5.5 Ks (MLB)
- Z. Grienke o2.5 Ks (MLB)
- J. Tatum o26.5 Pts+Rebs (NBA)
7:10 PM: Orioles @ Tigers
OK, I know what you're thinking. The signals are staring me down, though, as the Tigers have 88% of the money compared to 57% of tickets and all of the smart money that's pushed the line out to -149. Baltimore's starter, RHP Jordan Lyles, is the driving force in taking Detroit as he's allowed seven hits in three-straight games while allowing nine runs. His last two starts, despite the seven hits, were quality starts. But something's gotta give, considering how soundly he's been hit. Lyles has a poor K% (17.6) with a 40.7 Hard Hit% and a dreadful average exit velocity of 90.7. Worst than all, though, are his BAA (batting average against) numbers; hitters average a .372 xwOBA, .293 xBA, and.488 xSLG. It means that hitters are *expected* to have that average against him with a ceiling to be even better. To put it simply, teams have hit Lyles well but left many runners on base. Now, are the Tigers the team to bet on to do that?
Well, no, their offense stinks. However, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is on the bump, and while he has similar struggles in avg EV/Hard Hit%, hitters aren't nearly as successful. Rodriguez's xBA is .245 with a 23% K-rate and 8.1% walk rate -- terrific numbers. On the road against lefties, Baltimore has a high K-rate and a low walk rate, both ranking in the bottom ten of the league. Additionally, as a team, it has a low xWOBA and xSLG. Back to Detroit's offense, Lyles' low K-rate and low walk-rate plays into Detroit's hands. The Tigers have five players with poor K-rates. Still, as a team, they have one of the highest Zone Swing% in the league, meaning if a pitcher is throwing strikes in the zone, they're swinging, and given Lyles' approach to throwing it in the zone as much as he does, bettors and the numbers believe there will be enough offense out of the Tigers to win this one.
Pick: Tigers ML
8:10PM: Twins @ Guardians
The total is getting ran to the bank here as the signals are all over an under between these two clubs. Cleveland's offense doesn't have a lot of pop right now as the majority of its lineup has poor Hard Hit% and against Sonny Gray (MIN), it won't get any easier. Gray keeps hitters at an average EV under 88mph with an excellent 36% Hard Hit rate. What's more, hitters facing Gray have an xBA of .221 and strikeout over 28% of the time. Expect a quiet night for Cleveland's offense. The Twins' offense is one of the better lineups in the league in most offensive analytics, but have team xBA that ranks in the bottom ten. They hit the ball hard and usually far, as they slug it with the best of them and don't have any concerns with their chase rates. Aaron Civale is on the bump for the Guardians and while his EV/Hard Hit rate aren't ideal, his xBA of .268 (not great) should keep the Twins honest. There's a mismatch between Gray & Cleveland's lineup. The catch here is both clubs' bullpens rank sixth and seventh, respectively, in ERA with good WHIPs (Cleveland's is the third-best). The signals and numbers are enough to agree with the line at 8.
Pick: under 8
Props:
- B. Rust o2.5 SOG (NHL)
- E. Rodriguez o5.5 Ks (MLB)
- Z. Grienke o2.5 Ks (MLB)
- J. Tatum o26.5 Pts+Rebs (NBA)
