MLB
6:35 PM: Reds @ Pirates
For two teams who commonly hit the over when they play (15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings), the signals strongly suggest this matchup will go under. When the Reds are an underdog, the over is 11-1-1. So I can't sit here and come up with all the trends to convince you to hop on this because it's quite the opposite. However, these two teams are not offensive by any means. The Reds rank last, or near last, in just about every offensive analytic, while the Pirates are in the league's bottom half in those. Both pitchers are sinker/slider guys, and both offenses rank near the bottom of the league in Weak Contact %. The Pirates also rank low in Zone Swing %, meaning they're taking a lot of strikes. Overton (CIN) doesn't walk batters, which plays into the under's favor. Now, again, there are not a lot of numbers to make sense of picking an under. These two pitchers faced off five days ago, and the final score was 8-5. But 74% of the money compared to 35% of bets is on the under. There's a ton of smart money on it, too. And with 8.5 MPH winds blowing inward, I'm going to side with the under.
Pick: under 8
8:10 PM: Yankees @ White Sox
The signals love the White Sox today, and for a good reason. 71% of the money (51% of bets) is on the Sox, and so is the sharp money. This one is more agreeable with the numbers and easy to spell out. Dylan Cease (CWS) is on the bump for Chicago, and he's gone between six and seven innings in two out of his last three starts. He's only allowed more than four hits once in six starts, including eight or more strikeouts in five of those starts. The 26-year-old has been excellent, and he's easy to side with, but obviously, the Yankees' prolific offense is fearsome. However, with the wind at 9.4mph inward in Chicago, the Bronx Bombers won't have any help in putting balls out tonight, especially in the 8 PM hour. On the other side, Luis Gil (NYY) doesn't have the brightest numbers. Gil was called up to start tonight, and he has a 9.53 ERA in AAA. We discussed the Yankees' offense, but the White Sox have just as good of a lineup. At home, the Sox have an extremely low strikeout rate vs. right-handers, and although their offense has started slow against righties, Gil's arsenal of a FB/SL/CH plays into the hands of the Sox who love swinging early and often in counts with their aggressive style. There's a clear mismatch between Cease's success and Gil's lack thereof at a lower level. Add in the wind limiting New York's bats and the Sox's 7-3 record in their last ten games, and I'm firmly siding with Chicago tonight. I'm also on a Cease prop.
Pick: CWS ML -152
Prop: D. Cease o7.5 Ks
NBA
7:00 PM: Heat @ Sixers
82% of the money is on the under compared to 42% of bets. The line already moved towards the under this morning, too. There's reason to bet on overs in elimination games like this one, and if Philly manages to get to the free-throw line more regularly -- it didn't happen in Game 5 -- then it may clear the total. As you know, I'm a signals guy with the NBA, and I'm siding with the substantial cash differential here, one of my favorite systems.
Pick: under 207
NHL
7:30 PM: Leafs @ Lightning
Another elimination game and I'm siding with the underdog, who leads the series, in the Leafs. A considerable amount of smart money on the Leafs came in after they opened as 'dogs. At +114, you can still get your money back and some change by taking Toronto. There's terrific value in that, especially in an elimination game. The under is getting sharp signals, but I'm steering clear considering the over has hit in all five games so far, and I don't want to be *that guy* who takes the under when it goes over for a sixth-straight time or the guy who takes the over when it finally goes under. How about the Leafs' first series win in 2004 funding your dinner tonight?
Pick: TOR ML +114
Props:
I'm sticking with my NHL (and for the second time, Brad Marchand) SOG under pick tonight.
Pick: Brad Marchand u3.5 SOG
6:35 PM: Reds @ Pirates
For two teams who commonly hit the over when they play (15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings), the signals strongly suggest this matchup will go under. When the Reds are an underdog, the over is 11-1-1. So I can't sit here and come up with all the trends to convince you to hop on this because it's quite the opposite. However, these two teams are not offensive by any means. The Reds rank last, or near last, in just about every offensive analytic, while the Pirates are in the league's bottom half in those. Both pitchers are sinker/slider guys, and both offenses rank near the bottom of the league in Weak Contact %. The Pirates also rank low in Zone Swing %, meaning they're taking a lot of strikes. Overton (CIN) doesn't walk batters, which plays into the under's favor. Now, again, there are not a lot of numbers to make sense of picking an under. These two pitchers faced off five days ago, and the final score was 8-5. But 74% of the money compared to 35% of bets is on the under. There's a ton of smart money on it, too. And with 8.5 MPH winds blowing inward, I'm going to side with the under.
Pick: under 8
8:10 PM: Yankees @ White Sox
The signals love the White Sox today, and for a good reason. 71% of the money (51% of bets) is on the Sox, and so is the sharp money. This one is more agreeable with the numbers and easy to spell out. Dylan Cease (CWS) is on the bump for Chicago, and he's gone between six and seven innings in two out of his last three starts. He's only allowed more than four hits once in six starts, including eight or more strikeouts in five of those starts. The 26-year-old has been excellent, and he's easy to side with, but obviously, the Yankees' prolific offense is fearsome. However, with the wind at 9.4mph inward in Chicago, the Bronx Bombers won't have any help in putting balls out tonight, especially in the 8 PM hour. On the other side, Luis Gil (NYY) doesn't have the brightest numbers. Gil was called up to start tonight, and he has a 9.53 ERA in AAA. We discussed the Yankees' offense, but the White Sox have just as good of a lineup. At home, the Sox have an extremely low strikeout rate vs. right-handers, and although their offense has started slow against righties, Gil's arsenal of a FB/SL/CH plays into the hands of the Sox who love swinging early and often in counts with their aggressive style. There's a clear mismatch between Cease's success and Gil's lack thereof at a lower level. Add in the wind limiting New York's bats and the Sox's 7-3 record in their last ten games, and I'm firmly siding with Chicago tonight. I'm also on a Cease prop.
Pick: CWS ML -152
Prop: D. Cease o7.5 Ks
NBA
7:00 PM: Heat @ Sixers
82% of the money is on the under compared to 42% of bets. The line already moved towards the under this morning, too. There's reason to bet on overs in elimination games like this one, and if Philly manages to get to the free-throw line more regularly -- it didn't happen in Game 5 -- then it may clear the total. As you know, I'm a signals guy with the NBA, and I'm siding with the substantial cash differential here, one of my favorite systems.
Pick: under 207
NHL
7:30 PM: Leafs @ Lightning
Another elimination game and I'm siding with the underdog, who leads the series, in the Leafs. A considerable amount of smart money on the Leafs came in after they opened as 'dogs. At +114, you can still get your money back and some change by taking Toronto. There's terrific value in that, especially in an elimination game. The under is getting sharp signals, but I'm steering clear considering the over has hit in all five games so far, and I don't want to be *that guy* who takes the under when it goes over for a sixth-straight time or the guy who takes the over when it finally goes under. How about the Leafs' first series win in 2004 funding your dinner tonight?
Pick: TOR ML +114
Props:
I'm sticking with my NHL (and for the second time, Brad Marchand) SOG under pick tonight.
Pick: Brad Marchand u3.5 SOG
