MLB
6:35 PM: Dodgers @ Pirates
Two lefties are on the mound in Pittsburgh on Monday night in Quintana (PIT) and Urias (LAD). Urias has had a terrific start posting an ERA below 2 and a WHIP below 1. Meanwhile, Quintana hasn't allowed more than four hits in his last three outings. The Dodgers are clearly the better team with the better lineup and rotation. However, their team splits against lefties do not rival the Pirates' enough. Both clubs sit in the middle of the pack in all statistical categories against lefties with the Pirates being marginally worse than the Dodgers, statistically, against lefties. LA's lefty-friendly lineup tends to target the opposite field against left-handed arms. In a ballpark like PNC Park (PIT), which is more pitcher-friendly than hitter-friendly, the sharps and big money are siding with an inflated moneyline in favor of the better team. Again, this is an interchangeable league and ML values can be found daily. I believe this is today's best value. Not necessarily a lock of a pick, but this game should be far more even with the Dodgers not hitting lefties well, and off of a back-to-back that included a travel day from Chicago to Pittsburgh. Sharp money is on PIT. I'll side.
Pick: PIT ML +207
6:40PM: Brewers @ Reds
Two aces going at it in Luis Castillo (CIN) and Brandon Woodruff (MIL). Cincinnati is abysmal and the worst team in baseball, I don't see their offense coming alive against Woodruff, who isn't having a hot start to 2022, but totaled 12 strikeouts in his outing against the Reds last week. Luis Castillo is making his debut today and the 5-23 Reds desperately need something to believe in. Castillo is certainly a guy I can get behind for them to win their sixth. However, I'm not on a side here, I'm taking the under with two strong arms on the mound. This has a 5-1, or 6-2 type of Brewers win to it, at best. And the signals agree with 71% of the cash on the under and the odds moving in the under's direction, already out to -120.
Pick: under 8.5
9:40 PM: Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Sharp money is hammering the Diamondbacks at home with two righties on the mound as the line has moved a ton from +110 to -104 in Arizona's favor. Both teams are having similar seasons with similar records, and both arms on the mound have inflated ERAs over 4 (Hernandez, MIA, is over 6). Arizona has better individual hitting in the heart of their order with five guys over .330 in xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) compared to Miami's three. At home with the signals, the Diamondbacks are the team I'm siding with today.
Pick: ARI ML -104
NBA
10 PM: Grizzlies @ Warriors
The Griz don't have star Ja Morant for this one but the inflation of this line is too much for me in a playoff setting, especially given that Memphis still has players. The signals agree, with the line moving towards Memphis and the sharp money all over the inflated line. Additionally, the under is getting hammered and the line has moved four points lower because of it. I'm also all over a Desmond Bane offensive output in the absence of Morant.
Picks: MEM +10.5, under 223.5
Props: D. Bane o25.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
More props:
J. Tatum o34.5 Pts+Rebs
NHL
Props:
B. Rust o2.5 SOG (1-0 in picking Rust, TAN projects 3.9)
6:35 PM: Dodgers @ Pirates
Two lefties are on the mound in Pittsburgh on Monday night in Quintana (PIT) and Urias (LAD). Urias has had a terrific start posting an ERA below 2 and a WHIP below 1. Meanwhile, Quintana hasn't allowed more than four hits in his last three outings. The Dodgers are clearly the better team with the better lineup and rotation. However, their team splits against lefties do not rival the Pirates' enough. Both clubs sit in the middle of the pack in all statistical categories against lefties with the Pirates being marginally worse than the Dodgers, statistically, against lefties. LA's lefty-friendly lineup tends to target the opposite field against left-handed arms. In a ballpark like PNC Park (PIT), which is more pitcher-friendly than hitter-friendly, the sharps and big money are siding with an inflated moneyline in favor of the better team. Again, this is an interchangeable league and ML values can be found daily. I believe this is today's best value. Not necessarily a lock of a pick, but this game should be far more even with the Dodgers not hitting lefties well, and off of a back-to-back that included a travel day from Chicago to Pittsburgh. Sharp money is on PIT. I'll side.
Pick: PIT ML +207
6:40PM: Brewers @ Reds
Two aces going at it in Luis Castillo (CIN) and Brandon Woodruff (MIL). Cincinnati is abysmal and the worst team in baseball, I don't see their offense coming alive against Woodruff, who isn't having a hot start to 2022, but totaled 12 strikeouts in his outing against the Reds last week. Luis Castillo is making his debut today and the 5-23 Reds desperately need something to believe in. Castillo is certainly a guy I can get behind for them to win their sixth. However, I'm not on a side here, I'm taking the under with two strong arms on the mound. This has a 5-1, or 6-2 type of Brewers win to it, at best. And the signals agree with 71% of the cash on the under and the odds moving in the under's direction, already out to -120.
Pick: under 8.5
9:40 PM: Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Sharp money is hammering the Diamondbacks at home with two righties on the mound as the line has moved a ton from +110 to -104 in Arizona's favor. Both teams are having similar seasons with similar records, and both arms on the mound have inflated ERAs over 4 (Hernandez, MIA, is over 6). Arizona has better individual hitting in the heart of their order with five guys over .330 in xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) compared to Miami's three. At home with the signals, the Diamondbacks are the team I'm siding with today.
Pick: ARI ML -104
NBA
10 PM: Grizzlies @ Warriors
The Griz don't have star Ja Morant for this one but the inflation of this line is too much for me in a playoff setting, especially given that Memphis still has players. The signals agree, with the line moving towards Memphis and the sharp money all over the inflated line. Additionally, the under is getting hammered and the line has moved four points lower because of it. I'm also all over a Desmond Bane offensive output in the absence of Morant.
Picks: MEM +10.5, under 223.5
Props: D. Bane o25.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
More props:
J. Tatum o34.5 Pts+Rebs
NHL
Props:
B. Rust o2.5 SOG (1-0 in picking Rust, TAN projects 3.9)
