We went 2-0 on our picks yesterday with the Michigan State/Pitt under giving us a scare while UCF +2.5 certainly didn't, at least from a betting perspective (too soon?).
Meanwhile, our Dog of the Day (Lightning +125 vs. Panthers) got crushed, 9-3.
I want to be sure to share a bit on the strategy I use here. The main slate should all be the same amount, or "uni," and the Dog of the Day should be a lesser number, or "sprinkled," as I like to say.
Later post than usual, but I'm focusing on watching signals as the CFP games move closer.
I'm going to save you a bet-against-Michigan spot in back-to-back Daily Pick columns ... buuuuuuut ... the signals are real suspect. Michigan has 81-percent of the money but also 16-percent of the bets. That's a decent signal but the differential being in U-M's favor doesn't necessarily guarantee it to have the "big money," or at least the majority of it. It's a good signal, it's more likely that Michigan has the big money, but a 25-percent or greater differential is more indicative. That being said, Georgia is getting a boatload of the sharp money, commanding a substantially strong signal in its favor. The big money and sharp money not being on the same page is good news. The line has floated from -7.5 to -8 all day, and it's been at that 7.5-mark for the bulk of the week. I think that's good news, too. It means this whole thing isn't going one way in the world of pro bettors and bookmakers. I'm interested to see what happens tonight for reasons far beyond betting. But I'm curious to see, once the dust settles, how it all shaped out with these signals and the line movement in mind.
Now, picks!
CFB: No. 4 Cincinnati (+13.5) vs. No. 1 Alabama, College Football Playoff Semifinal
"Alabama gon' cover, I don't 'cur who 'dey play!"
Well, uh, scroll down if that's been you all week. I'll admit, I was that guy since the playoff field was announced. However, the final hours have led me towards a Cincinnati pick here. The line hasn't moved much, just a half-point in Cincinnati's direction from 14 to 14.5. But there's massive sharp money coming through, a signal that cannot be ignored or considered if you're wagering on this game. At +13.5, you're getting lines as good as -108 on some books and that's a lot of points with better-than-usual odds to go along with pros loving the Bearcats. Georgia's secondary is its weak spot, and Bryce Young made that clear. But Cincinnati's Avengers is its defensive backs, namely Sauce Gardner. Alabama's top wideout, John Metchie, is out. 'Bama is 'Bama and 'Bama is gon' 'Bama, for sure. But this matchup along with the signals and the peace of mind having 13,5 points to work with lends me enough confidence to ride this one this afternoon.
Pick: Cincinnati +13.5
CFB: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan, College Football Playoff Semifinal (O/U 45.5)
Hold up wait a minute, y'all thought I was finished? No chance I watch this game without a pick in mind.
This game set at a 45.5 total is far too low if you ask me. In short, Michigan is far more explosive offensively than its perceived "smash-mouth" style appears to the eyes. And Georgia scores more than it's given credit for. Michigan (36.8) ranks 6th in ePPG (estimated points per game) and Georgia ranks 10th (35.4). That's nearly an 80-point total, and no that won't happen with these two defenses on the field but both have proven their ability to score. UGA hasn't scored less than 24 points since Week 1 when it beat Clemson, 10-7, and Michigan hasn't scored less than 20 points in any game. I'll bank on both teams surpassing the 20-mark, or one surpassing the 30-plus with the other in the 14-to-17 range. Additionally, there's a *good* signal on the sharp money. We have our signal picks, our analytical picks, and our combination of both. I like this one to go over.
Pick: Georgia/Michigan o45.5
NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers (O/U 227)
After the two longer-winded picks, I'll keep this one short and simple. There's bigger fish to fry tonight, obviously. But what if you watch Michigan win (and the under) then hop on a 10:30 p.m. EST under? Genius! With only 44-percent of tickets on the under in this game, there's 91-percent of the money on it. There's also a good signal from the sharps. Perhaps the strongest signal is the line's movement from 231 points to 227, a four-point swing. I'm on this under.
Pick: U227
Dog of the Day: Come on! You already know what ML is being sprinkled tonight. Meeeechigan +260. I honestly believe there's value here. Michigan is a good team and this line is treating it like a phony playoff contender. This game matches up well for the Wolverines. Win or lose, this isn't as obvious as this ML is indicating.
Meanwhile, our Dog of the Day (Lightning +125 vs. Panthers) got crushed, 9-3.
I want to be sure to share a bit on the strategy I use here. The main slate should all be the same amount, or "uni," and the Dog of the Day should be a lesser number, or "sprinkled," as I like to say.
Later post than usual, but I'm focusing on watching signals as the CFP games move closer.
I'm going to save you a bet-against-Michigan spot in back-to-back Daily Pick columns ... buuuuuuut ... the signals are real suspect. Michigan has 81-percent of the money but also 16-percent of the bets. That's a decent signal but the differential being in U-M's favor doesn't necessarily guarantee it to have the "big money," or at least the majority of it. It's a good signal, it's more likely that Michigan has the big money, but a 25-percent or greater differential is more indicative. That being said, Georgia is getting a boatload of the sharp money, commanding a substantially strong signal in its favor. The big money and sharp money not being on the same page is good news. The line has floated from -7.5 to -8 all day, and it's been at that 7.5-mark for the bulk of the week. I think that's good news, too. It means this whole thing isn't going one way in the world of pro bettors and bookmakers. I'm interested to see what happens tonight for reasons far beyond betting. But I'm curious to see, once the dust settles, how it all shaped out with these signals and the line movement in mind.
Now, picks!
CFB: No. 4 Cincinnati (+13.5) vs. No. 1 Alabama, College Football Playoff Semifinal
"Alabama gon' cover, I don't 'cur who 'dey play!"
Well, uh, scroll down if that's been you all week. I'll admit, I was that guy since the playoff field was announced. However, the final hours have led me towards a Cincinnati pick here. The line hasn't moved much, just a half-point in Cincinnati's direction from 14 to 14.5. But there's massive sharp money coming through, a signal that cannot be ignored or considered if you're wagering on this game. At +13.5, you're getting lines as good as -108 on some books and that's a lot of points with better-than-usual odds to go along with pros loving the Bearcats. Georgia's secondary is its weak spot, and Bryce Young made that clear. But Cincinnati's Avengers is its defensive backs, namely Sauce Gardner. Alabama's top wideout, John Metchie, is out. 'Bama is 'Bama and 'Bama is gon' 'Bama, for sure. But this matchup along with the signals and the peace of mind having 13,5 points to work with lends me enough confidence to ride this one this afternoon.
Pick: Cincinnati +13.5
CFB: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan, College Football Playoff Semifinal (O/U 45.5)
Hold up wait a minute, y'all thought I was finished? No chance I watch this game without a pick in mind.
This game set at a 45.5 total is far too low if you ask me. In short, Michigan is far more explosive offensively than its perceived "smash-mouth" style appears to the eyes. And Georgia scores more than it's given credit for. Michigan (36.8) ranks 6th in ePPG (estimated points per game) and Georgia ranks 10th (35.4). That's nearly an 80-point total, and no that won't happen with these two defenses on the field but both have proven their ability to score. UGA hasn't scored less than 24 points since Week 1 when it beat Clemson, 10-7, and Michigan hasn't scored less than 20 points in any game. I'll bank on both teams surpassing the 20-mark, or one surpassing the 30-plus with the other in the 14-to-17 range. Additionally, there's a *good* signal on the sharp money. We have our signal picks, our analytical picks, and our combination of both. I like this one to go over.
Pick: Georgia/Michigan o45.5
NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers (O/U 227)
After the two longer-winded picks, I'll keep this one short and simple. There's bigger fish to fry tonight, obviously. But what if you watch Michigan win (and the under) then hop on a 10:30 p.m. EST under? Genius! With only 44-percent of tickets on the under in this game, there's 91-percent of the money on it. There's also a good signal from the sharps. Perhaps the strongest signal is the line's movement from 231 points to 227, a four-point swing. I'm on this under.
Pick: U227
Dog of the Day: Come on! You already know what ML is being sprinkled tonight. Meeeechigan +260. I honestly believe there's value here. Michigan is a good team and this line is treating it like a phony playoff contender. This game matches up well for the Wolverines. Win or lose, this isn't as obvious as this ML is indicating.
