Welcome to the first edition of Sharpening The Edge's daily picks.
This will serve as the daily write-up on what I'm picking, and why I'm picking it. There will still be longer written gambling coverage throughout the year but this will be your everyday read.
There is no specific format. There won't be one pick from each league. There won't even be a specific amount of picks. Every day the board is different than the day before, sometimes longer or vastly shorter. It depends on what you like, or hate on the board. That's why we chose the daily format. You might see 3 CBB picks and 1 NBA. Or 5 NBA picks, and nothing else. It's entirely dependent on what I like. I won't make picks just to make them is my point.
With all that being said ... Let's have some fun.
NCAAB: Butler (-2 ) vs. DePaul (5:00PM)
This line has moved from +1 all the way over to BUT -2. DePaul is 8-2 ATS to Butler's abysmal 3-7 record. Despite that, 61-percent of the money is on the Bulldogs to just 35-percent of the bets. The line's movement shouldn't make this a shocker, but there's been a strong dose of sharp money on Butler, too. On paper, DePaul should do what it's done all season: cover. But the signals shy me away from it. I think people see this line and jump at DePaul, and Vegas knows it. Give me Butler -2.
Pick: BUT -2
NCAAB: Memphis (-10.5) at Tulane (8:00PM)
Coming off of an underdog outright victory against Alabama following three consecutive losses by four points or less, I think Memphis comes in and makes a statement tonight against a Tulane team that just lost to College of Charleston by 14 at home. To add more, we have strong edges here. Memphis' large point spread, though to be inflated, is only getting 26-percent of bets to a whopping 77-percent of the money. There's also been a decent, not overwhelming, sharp action on the Tigers. I think they're unquestionably better than Tulane by a wide margin. To have edges/signals to go along with it makes this my favorite pick on today's slate.
Pick: MEM -10.5
NCAAF: Maryland (-4) vs. Virginia Tech
I love me some Maryland this afternoon. The line, like a lot of bowl games this season, has completely shifted. The bulk of the line's movement has to do with Virginia Tech losing the centerpiece of its offensive production, quarterback Braxton Burmeister, who transferred following head coach Justin Fuente moving on. New head coach for the bowl game? Sure, that's not always a worst-case scenario. I won't call that an edge. But a new coach and a new quarterback? Not to mention, the quarterback who's replacing Burmeister has only thrown the ball 16 times in his career. On Maryland's side of things, it's got an offense that entirely determines if it will win or not. The defense isn't awful, but it's not good enough to win games. It needs the offense to be high-octane. I like Maryland with its star quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, healthy, playing inspired football in a bowl game that I believe really matters to the program. And the final, largest edge here is an abundance of sharp signals going Maryland's way ... like a LOT. Give me the Terps.
Pick: MD -4
NCAAB: Nevada at Kansas (O/U 155.5)
This is more of a pure signal pick here. I think 154.5 is a lofty expectation for this game, including a Nevada squad whose last three games have gone under at smaller numbers. But the real signal sticking out on this contest is the line's three moves, all towards the under, going down to as low as 154.5 at some books. You can still grab it at 155.5 in most places, and I'd buy it down to 153.5. There's been a lot of smart money here on the under, so I'm grabbing it before the line moves any more than it already has.
Pick: Under 155.5 (down to 153.5)
Dog of the Day:
NHL: PHI +115 (SIGNALS, y'all!)
Good luck!
This will serve as the daily write-up on what I'm picking, and why I'm picking it. There will still be longer written gambling coverage throughout the year but this will be your everyday read.
There is no specific format. There won't be one pick from each league. There won't even be a specific amount of picks. Every day the board is different than the day before, sometimes longer or vastly shorter. It depends on what you like, or hate on the board. That's why we chose the daily format. You might see 3 CBB picks and 1 NBA. Or 5 NBA picks, and nothing else. It's entirely dependent on what I like. I won't make picks just to make them is my point.
With all that being said ... Let's have some fun.
NCAAB: Butler (-2 ) vs. DePaul (5:00PM)
This line has moved from +1 all the way over to BUT -2. DePaul is 8-2 ATS to Butler's abysmal 3-7 record. Despite that, 61-percent of the money is on the Bulldogs to just 35-percent of the bets. The line's movement shouldn't make this a shocker, but there's been a strong dose of sharp money on Butler, too. On paper, DePaul should do what it's done all season: cover. But the signals shy me away from it. I think people see this line and jump at DePaul, and Vegas knows it. Give me Butler -2.
Pick: BUT -2
NCAAB: Memphis (-10.5) at Tulane (8:00PM)
Coming off of an underdog outright victory against Alabama following three consecutive losses by four points or less, I think Memphis comes in and makes a statement tonight against a Tulane team that just lost to College of Charleston by 14 at home. To add more, we have strong edges here. Memphis' large point spread, though to be inflated, is only getting 26-percent of bets to a whopping 77-percent of the money. There's also been a decent, not overwhelming, sharp action on the Tigers. I think they're unquestionably better than Tulane by a wide margin. To have edges/signals to go along with it makes this my favorite pick on today's slate.
Pick: MEM -10.5
NCAAF: Maryland (-4) vs. Virginia Tech
I love me some Maryland this afternoon. The line, like a lot of bowl games this season, has completely shifted. The bulk of the line's movement has to do with Virginia Tech losing the centerpiece of its offensive production, quarterback Braxton Burmeister, who transferred following head coach Justin Fuente moving on. New head coach for the bowl game? Sure, that's not always a worst-case scenario. I won't call that an edge. But a new coach and a new quarterback? Not to mention, the quarterback who's replacing Burmeister has only thrown the ball 16 times in his career. On Maryland's side of things, it's got an offense that entirely determines if it will win or not. The defense isn't awful, but it's not good enough to win games. It needs the offense to be high-octane. I like Maryland with its star quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, healthy, playing inspired football in a bowl game that I believe really matters to the program. And the final, largest edge here is an abundance of sharp signals going Maryland's way ... like a LOT. Give me the Terps.
Pick: MD -4
NCAAB: Nevada at Kansas (O/U 155.5)
This is more of a pure signal pick here. I think 154.5 is a lofty expectation for this game, including a Nevada squad whose last three games have gone under at smaller numbers. But the real signal sticking out on this contest is the line's three moves, all towards the under, going down to as low as 154.5 at some books. You can still grab it at 155.5 in most places, and I'd buy it down to 153.5. There's been a lot of smart money here on the under, so I'm grabbing it before the line moves any more than it already has.
Pick: Under 155.5 (down to 153.5)
Dog of the Day:
NHL: PHI +115 (SIGNALS, y'all!)
Good luck!
