Record (Nov. 1, 2021): 63-45-2
Record yesterday: 2-2
Dog of the Day: 6-3
Parlays: 1-1
We were on the 49ers' side for the second-straight week and it again paid off, literally. I wasn't as bullish on the Moneyline this week but what an ugly, beautiful outright win for San Francisco. As for the TEN/CIN over, that was laid to waste rather quickly despite a late surge we could get us there.
Elsewhere, the under in CLEM/PITT covered with room on the total while the Suns couldn't cover the 12-point spread, winning by 10, despite being in the money most of the way.
We've got an extra-large board today, the longest in a couple of weeks. There's some small-market CBB and NFL playoffs, so a little bit of everything fr
Let's have some fun!
NCAAB
Game: Ill. State @ Evansville, 2:00PM
Edges: Yes, we're getting weird today. There's a pile of cash on Evansville, 63-percent of it compared to just 10-percent of bets. It's a line that Vegas is drawing in the public with, having 90-percent of tickets on ILS -4.5. ILS is 10-9, covering four of its last five games against the spread. Evansville is 4-13 and hasn't covered the spread in its last five games with large lines varying between 7.5-to-12 points. This line sitting at 4.5 points seems crazy, it hasn't moved, and there's 90-percent of tickets on one side. The sharp money is on the opposite side of the public, signaling why the line has stayed where it's at. With all of that in mind, Evansville is the ideal system pick here despite the unknown.
Pick: EVAN +4.5
Game: Central Connecticut State @ Mount St. Mary's, 2:00PM
Edge: I said we were getting weird! Mount St. Mary's has been a covering machine as of late, going 4-1 in its last five against the spread and 3-2 outright, including two underdog victories. It's only been a favorite once in that stretch, albeit a 2.5-point favorite. It's a huge favorite Sunday, though, hosting 5-15 CCSU as a 10.5-point favorite. There's a farm of big money here, 98-percent of it resting on MSM -10.5. CCSU is playing its fourth-straight road game, going 2-3 in its last five games against the spread. With the long road trip and MSM at home with a hot streak, I'll side with the favorites.
Pick: MSM -10 (you can buy a half-point for -120 to get it at -9.5, if you want the hook)
Game: Manhattan @ Monmouth, 2:00PM
Edges: The under is overflowing with signals here as 92-percent of the money is on the under compared to 40-percent of bets, the line has moved from 144 to 143, and the pro money is in on the under, too. Monmouth simply hates to make baskets, take a look at its past five point totals: 61, 85, 48, 62, 71. Only one of those games went over and it, obviously, was the 85-pointer. In addition to all of that, the under is 9-4 in Monmouth's last 13 games. I'll do the usual and take the signals.
Pick: u143
Game: UMass @ Saint Louis, 2:30PM
Edges: This line has moved significantly, from 153.5 down to 150.5 following strong signals on the under. 90-percent of the money is on the under, so are 76-percent of the bets. With the money and the public on the same side, the line movement makes sense. These two teams tend to go over and both score the ball well, but St. Louis has hit the under in three out of its last four games. Coming off of a game on Thursday in which the two teams covered the over with ease on a final score of 91-85, I don't know if I would take this any lower than 149, but at 150.5 I'm going to ride with both offenses coming back down to Earth for this rematch.
Pick: U150.5
NFL
Game: LAR @ TB, 3:00PM
Edges: Everyone is on the over here with 98-percent of the money and 72-percent of bets on it. Despite all of that money on the over, the line has moved a point-and-a-half in the under's direction due to pro money coming in on the under. It's fascinating when we see such strong fortunes on one side, yet the other moves. I'm going to side, like always, with the mysterious movement and take the under. Trust me, we all want something better than what we watched yesterday. The second game will deliver that.
Pick: u48
Game: BUF @ KC, 6:30PM
Edges: After watching two home teams lose yesterday, it's easy to go along with the trend and hop on it with some value here on Buffalo. The line has moved a whole point in the Bills direction, from 2.5 now down to 1.5. I think this movement continues, as 81-percent of the money to 43-percent of bets is on BUF +1.5. I think Josh Allen has a day and if Stefon Diggs gets shadowed, I like Gabriel Davis to have a sneaky good game. Buffalo's defense is exceptional, especially in the back end with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. I see Buffalo's defensive backs keeping Patrick Mahomes in check, but not completely neutralizing him. I don't know if this one has two defenses willing to surpass a monstrous 54-point over, but I do love the value on a Buffalo team that's better than K.C. The signals agree, too, so I'm siding with Buffalo.
Pick: BUF ML, or +1.5
Dog of the Day: BUF ML
Record yesterday: 2-2
Dog of the Day: 6-3
Parlays: 1-1
We were on the 49ers' side for the second-straight week and it again paid off, literally. I wasn't as bullish on the Moneyline this week but what an ugly, beautiful outright win for San Francisco. As for the TEN/CIN over, that was laid to waste rather quickly despite a late surge we could get us there.
Elsewhere, the under in CLEM/PITT covered with room on the total while the Suns couldn't cover the 12-point spread, winning by 10, despite being in the money most of the way.
We've got an extra-large board today, the longest in a couple of weeks. There's some small-market CBB and NFL playoffs, so a little bit of everything fr
Let's have some fun!
NCAAB
Game: Ill. State @ Evansville, 2:00PM
Edges: Yes, we're getting weird today. There's a pile of cash on Evansville, 63-percent of it compared to just 10-percent of bets. It's a line that Vegas is drawing in the public with, having 90-percent of tickets on ILS -4.5. ILS is 10-9, covering four of its last five games against the spread. Evansville is 4-13 and hasn't covered the spread in its last five games with large lines varying between 7.5-to-12 points. This line sitting at 4.5 points seems crazy, it hasn't moved, and there's 90-percent of tickets on one side. The sharp money is on the opposite side of the public, signaling why the line has stayed where it's at. With all of that in mind, Evansville is the ideal system pick here despite the unknown.
Pick: EVAN +4.5
Game: Central Connecticut State @ Mount St. Mary's, 2:00PM
Edge: I said we were getting weird! Mount St. Mary's has been a covering machine as of late, going 4-1 in its last five against the spread and 3-2 outright, including two underdog victories. It's only been a favorite once in that stretch, albeit a 2.5-point favorite. It's a huge favorite Sunday, though, hosting 5-15 CCSU as a 10.5-point favorite. There's a farm of big money here, 98-percent of it resting on MSM -10.5. CCSU is playing its fourth-straight road game, going 2-3 in its last five games against the spread. With the long road trip and MSM at home with a hot streak, I'll side with the favorites.
Pick: MSM -10 (you can buy a half-point for -120 to get it at -9.5, if you want the hook)
Game: Manhattan @ Monmouth, 2:00PM
Edges: The under is overflowing with signals here as 92-percent of the money is on the under compared to 40-percent of bets, the line has moved from 144 to 143, and the pro money is in on the under, too. Monmouth simply hates to make baskets, take a look at its past five point totals: 61, 85, 48, 62, 71. Only one of those games went over and it, obviously, was the 85-pointer. In addition to all of that, the under is 9-4 in Monmouth's last 13 games. I'll do the usual and take the signals.
Pick: u143
Game: UMass @ Saint Louis, 2:30PM
Edges: This line has moved significantly, from 153.5 down to 150.5 following strong signals on the under. 90-percent of the money is on the under, so are 76-percent of the bets. With the money and the public on the same side, the line movement makes sense. These two teams tend to go over and both score the ball well, but St. Louis has hit the under in three out of its last four games. Coming off of a game on Thursday in which the two teams covered the over with ease on a final score of 91-85, I don't know if I would take this any lower than 149, but at 150.5 I'm going to ride with both offenses coming back down to Earth for this rematch.
Pick: U150.5
NFL
Game: LAR @ TB, 3:00PM
Edges: Everyone is on the over here with 98-percent of the money and 72-percent of bets on it. Despite all of that money on the over, the line has moved a point-and-a-half in the under's direction due to pro money coming in on the under. It's fascinating when we see such strong fortunes on one side, yet the other moves. I'm going to side, like always, with the mysterious movement and take the under. Trust me, we all want something better than what we watched yesterday. The second game will deliver that.
Pick: u48
Game: BUF @ KC, 6:30PM
Edges: After watching two home teams lose yesterday, it's easy to go along with the trend and hop on it with some value here on Buffalo. The line has moved a whole point in the Bills direction, from 2.5 now down to 1.5. I think this movement continues, as 81-percent of the money to 43-percent of bets is on BUF +1.5. I think Josh Allen has a day and if Stefon Diggs gets shadowed, I like Gabriel Davis to have a sneaky good game. Buffalo's defense is exceptional, especially in the back end with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. I see Buffalo's defensive backs keeping Patrick Mahomes in check, but not completely neutralizing him. I don't know if this one has two defenses willing to surpass a monstrous 54-point over, but I do love the value on a Buffalo team that's better than K.C. The signals agree, too, so I'm siding with Buffalo.
Pick: BUF ML, or +1.5
Dog of the Day: BUF ML
