Back at it today after a 5-6 day yesterday. Let's hit some valuable money lines, totals, and props on this beautiful Cinco De Mayo!
MLB
8:10 PM: Detroit @ Houston
DAILY DOUBLE
The signals love the Tigers today with 52% of the money on DET ML despite only 25% of tickets. That's telling. On top of that, sharp money has come in and pushed this line nine points with plenty of room to move again before the first pitch. Skubal is on the mound against a Houston team that hits in the bottom-part of the league against lefties (24th) with a team average of .204. Both teams shouldn't hit the ball well today, as we know the Tigers are, uh, not good at offense, to put it lightly. Against RHP, Detroit ranks below 20th in OPS, SLG, and wOBA with the sixth-highest strikeout percentage. Additionally, 89% of the money is on the under compared to 41% of bets.
Picks: DET ML +135, under 8.5
9:40 PM: Miami @ San Diego
This line did a complete 180, moving from +125 to -113 in Miami's favor. This is the strongest sharp signal of the day, according to TAN's board. The Padres have a top-three power lineup against lefties. However, they struggle at home against them, hitting only .215, which ranks 26th in the league. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) has put together some good outings this season and signals are riding on him to conquer the Padres lineup on the road.
Pick: MIA ML -113
Props:
Tarik Skubal o4.5 Ks (-130)
NHL
10:00 PM: Dallas @ Calgary, Game 2 (CGY leads 1-0)
After a 1-0 final in Game 1, the under sits low at 5.5 and slight sharp money moved the odds on the under from -105 to -114. However, TAN's projections have this at 6.38 goals, making for a sizable edge at 5.5 with excellent value at -105. Two things: A) I side with signals, but this one isn't strong enough to make me stay away from picking against them B) I don't often buy into projections in postseason play. But it's important to note that a 1-0 game caused this reaction from the market and I'm willing to buy into a 4-2 final, or better, in Game 2. Dallas can't go down two games, so the passiveness on offense shouldn't be an issue tonight.
Pick: over 5.5
Props:
7 PM, PIT/NYR: B. Rust o2.5 SOG
930 PM, NSH/COL: G. Landeskog o2.5 SOG
No NBA tonight!
MLB
8:10 PM: Detroit @ Houston
DAILY DOUBLE
The signals love the Tigers today with 52% of the money on DET ML despite only 25% of tickets. That's telling. On top of that, sharp money has come in and pushed this line nine points with plenty of room to move again before the first pitch. Skubal is on the mound against a Houston team that hits in the bottom-part of the league against lefties (24th) with a team average of .204. Both teams shouldn't hit the ball well today, as we know the Tigers are, uh, not good at offense, to put it lightly. Against RHP, Detroit ranks below 20th in OPS, SLG, and wOBA with the sixth-highest strikeout percentage. Additionally, 89% of the money is on the under compared to 41% of bets.
Picks: DET ML +135, under 8.5
9:40 PM: Miami @ San Diego
This line did a complete 180, moving from +125 to -113 in Miami's favor. This is the strongest sharp signal of the day, according to TAN's board. The Padres have a top-three power lineup against lefties. However, they struggle at home against them, hitting only .215, which ranks 26th in the league. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) has put together some good outings this season and signals are riding on him to conquer the Padres lineup on the road.
Pick: MIA ML -113
Props:
Tarik Skubal o4.5 Ks (-130)
NHL
10:00 PM: Dallas @ Calgary, Game 2 (CGY leads 1-0)
After a 1-0 final in Game 1, the under sits low at 5.5 and slight sharp money moved the odds on the under from -105 to -114. However, TAN's projections have this at 6.38 goals, making for a sizable edge at 5.5 with excellent value at -105. Two things: A) I side with signals, but this one isn't strong enough to make me stay away from picking against them B) I don't often buy into projections in postseason play. But it's important to note that a 1-0 game caused this reaction from the market and I'm willing to buy into a 4-2 final, or better, in Game 2. Dallas can't go down two games, so the passiveness on offense shouldn't be an issue tonight.
Pick: over 5.5
Props:
7 PM, PIT/NYR: B. Rust o2.5 SOG
930 PM, NSH/COL: G. Landeskog o2.5 SOG
No NBA tonight!
