Let's start with noting what has become an annual tradition has continued again this year and that is the undervaluing of the Michigan basketball program through the national media. There have been a few writers giving Michigan respect such as NBC Sports and Andy Katz having Michigan in the top 20 even without Chaundee Brown at the time. And then there is riff raff like Matt Norlander (34), Gary Parrish (36) and Jeff Goodman (43) who all have Michigan outside of the top 30 even with Brown accounted for in the totals. In fact all three of those guys have Michigan behind Purdue, which defies basic numbers if you look at who each team returns along with who each team brings to the roster. (unless Matt Painter has now become Bob Knight and Juwan Howard is another Brian Ellerbe). Goodman had a cute response to a tweet questioning Michigan being too low with stating how Howard isn't Beilein. That's funny. I seem to recall Michigan being repeatedly underrated each of the last handful of seasons he was around by the national media. The only job for these guys is to write about and follow college basketball yet all they likely see is 9th place Michigan at 10-10 in the conference from last season than a team which finished at least 4th in the Big Ten in both Kenpom and Torvik. Those two this year have Michigan a more reasonable 17 and 11, respectively, in the preseason. Something tells me they'll be a little closer than the national guys on Michigan considering both deep crunch the numbers. Even a respected magazine like Lindy's, which is usually a great read/format to have sitting on the coffee table during the season, had Michigan not even making the NCAA (without Brown) and neither Wagner or Livers in their top 15 of Big Ten players??? The disrespect is endless.
Personally, I could see Michigan being anywhere in the 10-30 range this year and that broad number is a function of how many good teams there are this season all bunched together. With that said, I fully expect Michigan to have the ability to contend for the Final Four provided a normal season plays out. Most years you can expect about 20 teams to realistically contend for a Final Four. Last year that number was probably around 25 in what was a down, yet balanced, year in college hoops. This season I see somewhere between 30-35 schools that can contend for the Final Four. That is a function of a slightly smaller of guys declaring for the NBA due to covid along with top recruits being spread more evenly across the national landscape. If a season plays out normal, then this will be one of the more competitive years in recent college hoops given the depth. I typically see about 40% loss of production when looking at graduating players of rosters in March. This year that number was around 30% on average, which is probably the lowest I have seen since looking at the numbers over the last decade.
The top three teams this year look to be Villanova, Baylor and Gonzaga across nearly every list and that is fair (although I think the Zags might not be quite on par with Nova/Baylor). I don't think these teams are juggernauts, but it will be tough for Michigan to defeat any of those squads this season. IMO it is those three a cut above everyone else and then a ton of schools all within a ballpark of each other. Teams like Illinois, Iowa, Virginia, Kansas are in contention for that fourth spot on several lists, but I see all of those rosters only being slightly better than Michigan. (In fact its a coin flip between Michigan and Virginia on roster, but the latter went 7-0 in games decided by three points or less out of their last eight contests and got ranked in 2020 and the lazy national media thinks they are contenders for a title while Michigan is bubble team). Another example is Illinois who went 6-2 in games decided by five points or less. That sort of luck won't continue. Their roster is marginally better than Michigan at best. If Michigan had not missed a million free throws in the final minute of the game at Crisler last year, I guarantee you the Illini are consistently ranked five spots lower in the preseason on every single media list and Michigan is higher by those five spots in return. No surprise Kenpom has Virginia, Michigan, Illinois all next to each other on his numbers.
This Michigan roster is somewhat similar to that 2014 squad. The trio of Brown, Wagner, Livers is probably one of the five best in the country, whereas the Caris/Nik/GR3 was likely the top trio that season. The five spot is comparable between the two years, but the point guard is a bit shaky. I believe our point guard situation this year will be comparable to that of a freshman Derrick Walton in 2014. I would fairly rank Michigan as 5th in the conference this season with an equal chance of finishing first or finishing 8th. Both are entirely possible given the depth of the conference.
The Big Ten will contend with the Big 12 as being the best conference in the country this season. Unfortunately, the smaller amount of non con games will hurt the best conferences when it comes to NCAA selection provided the season plays out fine. The non con is typically 40% of a team's schedule, but will fall to 20-25% this season. In turn this creates a numbers game where the conference record matters more when it comes to the NET ranking tabulation. The NET ranking won't be able to replicate past seasons based on this adjustment in non con and in turn it will create a situation where a 12-8 SEC team is higher ranked than a 10-10 Big Ten school. A 13-7 team out of the AAC will be higher ranked than a 10-10 Big 12 school. A 15-5 second place MAC school will likely be ranked higher than a potential bubble 9-11 Purdue or Minnesota. I don't think the NCAA needs to deeply expand the field for this season, but an increase to 72 schools wouldn't be a bad thought for the year.
I'm hopeful Franz Wagner has a great year and is on his way to the NBA next season. The reality is that Michigan won't need Franz next year. The group of Williams, Houstan, Johns, Dickinson and Diabate should be able to play 140 minutes just fine out of the 120 minutes possible for the frontcourt positions (and that isn't even taking into account Barnes). In addition Michigan doesn't really need a guy like Chet Holmgren or Efton Reid for next season. What Michigan does need is a high end guard to be added to the roster. The trio of Collins, Bufkin and Jackson is a very nice group, but very young as well. College hoops is a guards game and that trio will probably be one year away from being a group that has the ability to be national title good. At this point I see the overall 2022 roster looking like a borderline top 10 team, but perhaps not national title good based on the guards. Having Franz blow up this year, go the league and fill the last ship with a high end guard in the transfer market could be the difference between playing in the Final Four in 2022 and winning the whole thing. (or maybe one of the three senior guards comes back under the hardship rule).
Personally, I could see Michigan being anywhere in the 10-30 range this year and that broad number is a function of how many good teams there are this season all bunched together. With that said, I fully expect Michigan to have the ability to contend for the Final Four provided a normal season plays out. Most years you can expect about 20 teams to realistically contend for a Final Four. Last year that number was probably around 25 in what was a down, yet balanced, year in college hoops. This season I see somewhere between 30-35 schools that can contend for the Final Four. That is a function of a slightly smaller of guys declaring for the NBA due to covid along with top recruits being spread more evenly across the national landscape. If a season plays out normal, then this will be one of the more competitive years in recent college hoops given the depth. I typically see about 40% loss of production when looking at graduating players of rosters in March. This year that number was around 30% on average, which is probably the lowest I have seen since looking at the numbers over the last decade.
The top three teams this year look to be Villanova, Baylor and Gonzaga across nearly every list and that is fair (although I think the Zags might not be quite on par with Nova/Baylor). I don't think these teams are juggernauts, but it will be tough for Michigan to defeat any of those squads this season. IMO it is those three a cut above everyone else and then a ton of schools all within a ballpark of each other. Teams like Illinois, Iowa, Virginia, Kansas are in contention for that fourth spot on several lists, but I see all of those rosters only being slightly better than Michigan. (In fact its a coin flip between Michigan and Virginia on roster, but the latter went 7-0 in games decided by three points or less out of their last eight contests and got ranked in 2020 and the lazy national media thinks they are contenders for a title while Michigan is bubble team). Another example is Illinois who went 6-2 in games decided by five points or less. That sort of luck won't continue. Their roster is marginally better than Michigan at best. If Michigan had not missed a million free throws in the final minute of the game at Crisler last year, I guarantee you the Illini are consistently ranked five spots lower in the preseason on every single media list and Michigan is higher by those five spots in return. No surprise Kenpom has Virginia, Michigan, Illinois all next to each other on his numbers.
This Michigan roster is somewhat similar to that 2014 squad. The trio of Brown, Wagner, Livers is probably one of the five best in the country, whereas the Caris/Nik/GR3 was likely the top trio that season. The five spot is comparable between the two years, but the point guard is a bit shaky. I believe our point guard situation this year will be comparable to that of a freshman Derrick Walton in 2014. I would fairly rank Michigan as 5th in the conference this season with an equal chance of finishing first or finishing 8th. Both are entirely possible given the depth of the conference.
The Big Ten will contend with the Big 12 as being the best conference in the country this season. Unfortunately, the smaller amount of non con games will hurt the best conferences when it comes to NCAA selection provided the season plays out fine. The non con is typically 40% of a team's schedule, but will fall to 20-25% this season. In turn this creates a numbers game where the conference record matters more when it comes to the NET ranking tabulation. The NET ranking won't be able to replicate past seasons based on this adjustment in non con and in turn it will create a situation where a 12-8 SEC team is higher ranked than a 10-10 Big Ten school. A 13-7 team out of the AAC will be higher ranked than a 10-10 Big 12 school. A 15-5 second place MAC school will likely be ranked higher than a potential bubble 9-11 Purdue or Minnesota. I don't think the NCAA needs to deeply expand the field for this season, but an increase to 72 schools wouldn't be a bad thought for the year.
I'm hopeful Franz Wagner has a great year and is on his way to the NBA next season. The reality is that Michigan won't need Franz next year. The group of Williams, Houstan, Johns, Dickinson and Diabate should be able to play 140 minutes just fine out of the 120 minutes possible for the frontcourt positions (and that isn't even taking into account Barnes). In addition Michigan doesn't really need a guy like Chet Holmgren or Efton Reid for next season. What Michigan does need is a high end guard to be added to the roster. The trio of Collins, Bufkin and Jackson is a very nice group, but very young as well. College hoops is a guards game and that trio will probably be one year away from being a group that has the ability to be national title good. At this point I see the overall 2022 roster looking like a borderline top 10 team, but perhaps not national title good based on the guards. Having Franz blow up this year, go the league and fill the last ship with a high end guard in the transfer market could be the difference between playing in the Final Four in 2022 and winning the whole thing. (or maybe one of the three senior guards comes back under the hardship rule).
