I wrote this on another thread, but i think it warrants its own thread... To use an investing term, I think we get stuck in value traps... we go looking for 2-3 star kids (value) that could be under the radar 4 stars (or grow into 4 stars, i.e. high ceiling kids), but the probability of success and subsequent expected value is lower than consistently targeting 4 stars. Hence, we get stuck with Ulizio types... value traps. Our staff seems hell bent on finding these diamonds in the rough. Part of that (a very small part, i think) may be because they were used to it given 2-3 star recruits were the best they could do at Stanford given not as many 4-5 star athletes were eligible to get into Stanford. Again, i don't subscribe to this theory all that much. And i'm not suggesting we don't target the 5 stars (Rashan, DPJ, etc), but in a smaller class size with a higher ratio of "diamonds in the rough" like we see SO FAR 2018 (yes, its early yet), it seems if we get the "projects" wrong the impact will be more harmful than a larger class that has a Gary and DPJ with 4-6 projects that don't pan out.
For every Kareem (who hasn't panned out as a5 star, so there is no sure thing) there has been at least 2x as many projects/"potential" diamonds in the rough. And maybe thats just the way the math is supposed to work out. Furthermore, I'm not saying they are all busts by any means! Some key guys on D and even at least one rb (higdon) fit the bill of very good finds.
Block M aside, Jimmy can get in any living room is my thought. Just wonder how we so consistently go looking for values when we should be able to go after consistent 4 stars... Also, i agree with another Fort member that I don't look at the stars so much as i do offer lists... with haskins we are competing against Eastern and Wyoming (i think?)
Then again, I know nada relative to our coaches, so they may simply not like many of the 4-5star kids out there in 2018. And I am not saying we don't go after the 4-5star kids... the 2018 class just seems to have more potential diamonds than previous classes. I suppose its still early though.
And, NO, the sky is not falling!! Just an observation about the 2018 class SO FAR.
Crootin.
For every Kareem (who hasn't panned out as a5 star, so there is no sure thing) there has been at least 2x as many projects/"potential" diamonds in the rough. And maybe thats just the way the math is supposed to work out. Furthermore, I'm not saying they are all busts by any means! Some key guys on D and even at least one rb (higdon) fit the bill of very good finds.
Block M aside, Jimmy can get in any living room is my thought. Just wonder how we so consistently go looking for values when we should be able to go after consistent 4 stars... Also, i agree with another Fort member that I don't look at the stars so much as i do offer lists... with haskins we are competing against Eastern and Wyoming (i think?)
Then again, I know nada relative to our coaches, so they may simply not like many of the 4-5star kids out there in 2018. And I am not saying we don't go after the 4-5star kids... the 2018 class just seems to have more potential diamonds than previous classes. I suppose its still early though.
And, NO, the sky is not falling!! Just an observation about the 2018 class SO FAR.
Crootin.
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