If you can't keep the guys you recruit on the roster. If you want to know why we are struggling so much this year, look no further than the 2017 recruiting class. A class of would be seniors that was ranked 4th in the country by Rivals at the time, but wouldn't be close to that now.
From that 30 person class, here are a list of the players still on the roster: Brad Robbins (2*), Chuck Filiaga (4*), Kwity Paye (3*), Donovan Jeter (4*), Joel Honigford (3*), Andrew Stueber (3*), Luiji Vilain (4*), Ben Mason (3*), Josh Ross (4*), Brad Hawkins (4*). That's only 1/3 of the class. And one is a punter.
Now we lost a couple early to the pros (Ruiz and DPJ) and a couple to Covid opt outs (Collins and Thomas), but they still aren't on the roster. Beyond that, some of the higher rated talent like Solomon, McCaffrey, and Black we never really received the full benefit of and they transferred out. And some of the talent, while probably overrated (like Jordan Anthony), never contributed. And I think we could use a guy like St. Juste right now too, who we let go for "medical" reasons but he's playing elsewhere.
This isn't that dissimilar to the 2010 and 2011 classes, which weren't ranked nearly as high, but where we had a ton of attrition. I think less than a third of the 27 person 2010 class even finished out their eligibility. And we saw how that played out in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. We are a little bit in danger of the same thing happening with the 2018 class as well. We've already lost Myles Sims and Muhammad, and very likely Mayfield after this year. Luckily we rebounded strong with the 2019 class and should be ok.
A school like OSU just backfills attrition - both to the pros and to transfers - with more elite recruits. We don't have that luxury. For us to compete at the elite levels we have to get the full value of our top end 4* guys and our 5* guys have to pan out. This team isn't elite with one or two more guys, but how much better are they with Collins or DPJ + Solomon and Thomas? It makes a huge difference.
Part of it might be just bad luck - the odds of having zero of Oliver Martin, Nico, DPJ or Tarik left over from 2017 right now were slim. But part of it is recruiting choices - like Solomon who was a great get, but always a reach to land and keep. Losing a couple of guys early to the pros isn't a bad problem to have, but you have to balance by holding on to the other guys. We haven't been able to do that. So instead of a balanced roster with a decent chunk of upperclassmen, we're left with mostly young guys playing a little too soon.
Just something to chew on as we wonder how we got here.
From that 30 person class, here are a list of the players still on the roster: Brad Robbins (2*), Chuck Filiaga (4*), Kwity Paye (3*), Donovan Jeter (4*), Joel Honigford (3*), Andrew Stueber (3*), Luiji Vilain (4*), Ben Mason (3*), Josh Ross (4*), Brad Hawkins (4*). That's only 1/3 of the class. And one is a punter.
Now we lost a couple early to the pros (Ruiz and DPJ) and a couple to Covid opt outs (Collins and Thomas), but they still aren't on the roster. Beyond that, some of the higher rated talent like Solomon, McCaffrey, and Black we never really received the full benefit of and they transferred out. And some of the talent, while probably overrated (like Jordan Anthony), never contributed. And I think we could use a guy like St. Juste right now too, who we let go for "medical" reasons but he's playing elsewhere.
This isn't that dissimilar to the 2010 and 2011 classes, which weren't ranked nearly as high, but where we had a ton of attrition. I think less than a third of the 27 person 2010 class even finished out their eligibility. And we saw how that played out in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. We are a little bit in danger of the same thing happening with the 2018 class as well. We've already lost Myles Sims and Muhammad, and very likely Mayfield after this year. Luckily we rebounded strong with the 2019 class and should be ok.
A school like OSU just backfills attrition - both to the pros and to transfers - with more elite recruits. We don't have that luxury. For us to compete at the elite levels we have to get the full value of our top end 4* guys and our 5* guys have to pan out. This team isn't elite with one or two more guys, but how much better are they with Collins or DPJ + Solomon and Thomas? It makes a huge difference.
Part of it might be just bad luck - the odds of having zero of Oliver Martin, Nico, DPJ or Tarik left over from 2017 right now were slim. But part of it is recruiting choices - like Solomon who was a great get, but always a reach to land and keep. Losing a couple of guys early to the pros isn't a bad problem to have, but you have to balance by holding on to the other guys. We haven't been able to do that. So instead of a balanced roster with a decent chunk of upperclassmen, we're left with mostly young guys playing a little too soon.
Just something to chew on as we wonder how we got here.
