From least likely to most likely
4. Northwestern - Yes, the first game was close, but if you look into the statistics, Michigan basically doubled them up. The fact the game was close the first time probably helps Michigan not overlook NW. I just don't see any chance of an upset here barring massive turnovers or other help by Michigan.
3. Purdue - The biggest difference is between 4 and 3. Purdue is a team that UM should beat handily because their defense is bad but two things to consider. The site of the game could make it a virtual road game (Purdue is only a couple hours from Indy). But more importantly, Jeff Brohm would literally throw the whole book at Michigan. Is there a scenario where Purdue gets a couple TDs early and puts the pressure on? I could see it. Ultimately, I don't think Purdue would be able to hold up on defense.
2. Wisconsin - Wisconsin doesn't have a good defense and was already blown out once by UM. However, if Wisconsin got there, that means they likely won at Purdue and/or at PSU, which means they would have turned it around. The only reason they're this high is because their OL arguably poses the biggest challenge for UM. If Chryst learns from his early mistakes and keeps it on the ground, we could be looking at a low possession game. I'd expect UM to win by 10-14, but it wouldn't be easy as the first time.
1. Iowa - Iowa luckily has the lowest chance of reaching the title game, which is good, because I think they'd cause the most problems with their defense. This would likely be a very close, low scoring game, which would be a huge problem with our kicker. It's hard to see their offense doing much, but it's very easy to see their defense holding up.
4. Northwestern - Yes, the first game was close, but if you look into the statistics, Michigan basically doubled them up. The fact the game was close the first time probably helps Michigan not overlook NW. I just don't see any chance of an upset here barring massive turnovers or other help by Michigan.
3. Purdue - The biggest difference is between 4 and 3. Purdue is a team that UM should beat handily because their defense is bad but two things to consider. The site of the game could make it a virtual road game (Purdue is only a couple hours from Indy). But more importantly, Jeff Brohm would literally throw the whole book at Michigan. Is there a scenario where Purdue gets a couple TDs early and puts the pressure on? I could see it. Ultimately, I don't think Purdue would be able to hold up on defense.
2. Wisconsin - Wisconsin doesn't have a good defense and was already blown out once by UM. However, if Wisconsin got there, that means they likely won at Purdue and/or at PSU, which means they would have turned it around. The only reason they're this high is because their OL arguably poses the biggest challenge for UM. If Chryst learns from his early mistakes and keeps it on the ground, we could be looking at a low possession game. I'd expect UM to win by 10-14, but it wouldn't be easy as the first time.
1. Iowa - Iowa luckily has the lowest chance of reaching the title game, which is good, because I think they'd cause the most problems with their defense. This would likely be a very close, low scoring game, which would be a huge problem with our kicker. It's hard to see their offense doing much, but it's very easy to see their defense holding up.
