1. The nightmare scenario for everyone not an Alabama fan is a 2 loss Alabama fan that didn't win its conference somehow making it into the playoff. The chances of this happening will be apparent when the first playoff rankings are released. If Alabama is #2 or #3, get ready for this to be a real possibility. Imagine #3 Alabama losing a close game to #1 Georgia, and you will hear from the SEC propaganda cheerleaders about how if this was the #3 or #2 team and they barely lost to Georgia, how can they not even be a top 4 team considering Georgia is clearly #1? Alabama's playoff chances with 2 losses will depend in large part on how the committee treats them now.
2. Cincinnati's chances are really not as good as people are think. Georgia is in. Even if Alabama loses to Georgia and is out, you still have the B1G champ assuredly in. If Oklahoma wins the B12 at 13-0, they're a lock. And no chance Oregon is out if they finish 12-1. The real debate would be if Oklahoma, who has been very unimpressive all year, lost a game and won the B12 at 12-1. Would the committee give Cincinnati the nod in that scenario? I could see that because we've seen the Sooners get blown out every time they make it, and I don't think anyone wants to see that again. We also don't know how the committee would value Cincinnati against say a 12-1 Pitt team (if Wake is 13-0, it would likely get in).
3. The 1 loss team with the worst odds is Notre Dame. They'd either need Cincinnati to lose twice or such chaos elsewhere. Basically Cincinnati blocks them. They also have no chances at a signature win. I think a 12-1 Pitt team would ace them out.
4. The Iowa - Wisconsin is a critical game for Michigan Saturday for a few reasons. First, in the event that MSU, OSU and UM all finish 8-1 (and all beat each other), the tiebreaker would be B1G record of West opponents. Michigan and MSU each played NW and Nebraska, but Michigan played Wisconsin and MSU played Purdue. Wisconsin winning the West would really help UM out. We should root for Wisconsin anyway because that would be the easiest opponent, and we already know we can beat them handily. If UM beats OSU, we don't need a top 15 opponent in the B1G title game. Our resume would be good enough to get in regardless of who we played.
2. Cincinnati's chances are really not as good as people are think. Georgia is in. Even if Alabama loses to Georgia and is out, you still have the B1G champ assuredly in. If Oklahoma wins the B12 at 13-0, they're a lock. And no chance Oregon is out if they finish 12-1. The real debate would be if Oklahoma, who has been very unimpressive all year, lost a game and won the B12 at 12-1. Would the committee give Cincinnati the nod in that scenario? I could see that because we've seen the Sooners get blown out every time they make it, and I don't think anyone wants to see that again. We also don't know how the committee would value Cincinnati against say a 12-1 Pitt team (if Wake is 13-0, it would likely get in).
3. The 1 loss team with the worst odds is Notre Dame. They'd either need Cincinnati to lose twice or such chaos elsewhere. Basically Cincinnati blocks them. They also have no chances at a signature win. I think a 12-1 Pitt team would ace them out.
4. The Iowa - Wisconsin is a critical game for Michigan Saturday for a few reasons. First, in the event that MSU, OSU and UM all finish 8-1 (and all beat each other), the tiebreaker would be B1G record of West opponents. Michigan and MSU each played NW and Nebraska, but Michigan played Wisconsin and MSU played Purdue. Wisconsin winning the West would really help UM out. We should root for Wisconsin anyway because that would be the easiest opponent, and we already know we can beat them handily. If UM beats OSU, we don't need a top 15 opponent in the B1G title game. Our resume would be good enough to get in regardless of who we played.
