Just a preview of what I will share later
PUNCHLINE: This is a year of contrast: We will be very talented and VERY inexperienced facing top teams of much less talent and much greater experience. Will talent or experience prevail?
Talent Vs. Experience
I believe that talent, seniority and experience of a team are by far the largest factors in their success (Schedule is also very important). If a team has A+ player material in those three categories, an average coach can win a national championship (See Larry Coker and Gene Chizik). Without that material even a wizard cannot win. (see Jim Harbaugh 4-8 Stanford 2007). Great coaches BUILD teams that have talent, experience and seniority and then win big with them.
I am crunching numbers to look at our top 5 opponents. I am looking at the talent level of the team by recruiting ratings versus experience (returning starters) and seniority (yrs in program). PURE TALENT: When I look at the Rivals star rating of an entire 22-man starting team I eliminate the noise of individual players who under or over achieved.
Preliminary Observation on 2017
Pure Talent (Average Rivals Stars of Starters)
On Pure Talent we will still trail OSU, but the difference is smaller than I expected
On Pure Talent we have an advantage over Florida, but the difference is small
On Pure Talent we have a significant advantage over PSU and a HUGE advantage over Wisky
Experience and Seniority
Our Experience (Returning Starters) and Seniority (Years in Program) will be LESS than all of our BIG FOUR opponents (UF, PSU, Wisky, OSU)
The difference in Experience and Seniority is small between us and Florida
The difference in Experience and Seniority is large between us and OSU
The difference in Experience and Seniority is HUGE between us and PSU, Wisky
TEST THE HYPOSTHESIS: Can Great Young 4-Star Talent beat Experienced, Veteran, Upperclassmen 3-Stars?
This season will be a good test of the debate between Talent, Experience and Seniority
PUNCHLINE: This is a year of contrast: We will be very talented and VERY inexperienced facing top teams of much less talent and much greater experience. Will talent or experience prevail?
Talent Vs. Experience
I believe that talent, seniority and experience of a team are by far the largest factors in their success (Schedule is also very important). If a team has A+ player material in those three categories, an average coach can win a national championship (See Larry Coker and Gene Chizik). Without that material even a wizard cannot win. (see Jim Harbaugh 4-8 Stanford 2007). Great coaches BUILD teams that have talent, experience and seniority and then win big with them.
I am crunching numbers to look at our top 5 opponents. I am looking at the talent level of the team by recruiting ratings versus experience (returning starters) and seniority (yrs in program). PURE TALENT: When I look at the Rivals star rating of an entire 22-man starting team I eliminate the noise of individual players who under or over achieved.
Preliminary Observation on 2017
Pure Talent (Average Rivals Stars of Starters)
On Pure Talent we will still trail OSU, but the difference is smaller than I expected
On Pure Talent we have an advantage over Florida, but the difference is small
On Pure Talent we have a significant advantage over PSU and a HUGE advantage over Wisky
Experience and Seniority
Our Experience (Returning Starters) and Seniority (Years in Program) will be LESS than all of our BIG FOUR opponents (UF, PSU, Wisky, OSU)
The difference in Experience and Seniority is small between us and Florida
The difference in Experience and Seniority is large between us and OSU
The difference in Experience and Seniority is HUGE between us and PSU, Wisky
TEST THE HYPOSTHESIS: Can Great Young 4-Star Talent beat Experienced, Veteran, Upperclassmen 3-Stars?
This season will be a good test of the debate between Talent, Experience and Seniority
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