The Kenny Golladay thread got me thinking about the how & why the Lions find themselves in cap purgatory this year. How does a bad team have no cap space? Of course, the cap stagnating (or did it decrease) is part of the problem since a lot of teams count on the cap continually rising to kind of smooth out big contracts as they age. But still, even after the restructure of Collins’s contract the Lions are still over the cap by $1.6 million. Why?
So that solves the mystery. That’s how you screw up your cap and suck at the same time. If you count Stafford in there, 6 of their 12 highest paid players either aren’t on the team (Stafford), perform at replacement level (Trufant, Vaitai, James, Williams), or aren’t really supposed to play at all if everything goes right (Daniel).
The good news is that they can move on from Vaitai, James and Daniel rather painlessly after next season (cap savings of $13.5 million vs dead $ of $7.5 million), plus they’ll have roughly $45 million of cap space entering next off-season (assuming they don’t go crazy in free agency this year).
If I’m the Lions I don’t like this years draft. A lot of kids didn’t play or had their season in disarray which could’ve affected their preparation. Plus there’s no combine. That’s a lot of variables and unknowns that don’t normally exist. Because of that I’d prefer that they continue to make moves to gear up for the ‘22 and ‘23 drafts. Spread your risk in the ‘21 draft by moving down and acquiring more picks.
But this free agency class actually provides some real opportunity to fill out the middle of the roster. No one has cap space so it’s going to be a buyers market. Focus on guys like FS Malik Hooker, CB Mackenzie Alexander, WR Keelan Cole, WR Adam Humphries, CB Cam Sutton, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, DT Daquan Jones, etc. Decent players that you may be able to get at a major discount on a 2 or 3 year deal.
The key is not overpaying for anyone and focusing on players that were actually cut by their former team. That’s because compensatory picks are based on net losses in free agency. If you lose Kenny Golladay at $18 million per year but sign Will Fuller for $17 million you pretty much break even and no comp pick is awarded.
The good news is that this is entirely within a teams control because the formula is based purely on financials rather than actual production. If the Lions let Golladay go and sign Sammy Watkins for $5 million and he equals or exceeds Golladay’s stats next year it doesn’t matter with regard to the formula. The discrepancy in contracts still awards the Lions with a probable 3rd round comp pick.
This is good for the Lions because they actually have some pretty decent free agents who could fetch sizable contracts and accompanying comp picks (Golladay, Marvin Jones, Okwara, & Everson Griffin). What’s also good is that only players that naturally hit agency are included in the comp pick formula. So Houston doesn’t get a comp pick for cutting JJ Watt and Arizona doesn’t take a net negative in their comp pick calculation for signing him. That makes players that are cut that much more valuable because it doesn’t jeopardize teams comp picks. (Teams like Baltimore and New England routinely take advantage of this).
So, on top of pursuing mid tier FA’s, the Lions should A: hope Golladay, Okwara, Jones, and Griffen (pretty unlikely here, but if they’re smart maybe a late round comp pick) get big deals this off-season, B: focus on signing guys that are cap casualties:
- Stafford’a bonus $ coming due after the trade. He carries a $19 million dead cap hit this year, which is obviously huge and kinda reshapes my view of Quin’s cap management. If not for that hit they’d actually be in pretty good position comparative to other teams.
- Goff ($28 million)
- Flowers ($19.9 million)
- Trufant ($12.2 million, to be released)
- Coleman ($11 million)
- Vaitai ($10.4 million)
- Okudah ($7.6 million)
- Collins ($7.3 million)
- James ($6.4 million)
- Williams ($5.6 million)
- Hockenson ($5.6 million)
- Daniel ($5.3 million)
So that solves the mystery. That’s how you screw up your cap and suck at the same time. If you count Stafford in there, 6 of their 12 highest paid players either aren’t on the team (Stafford), perform at replacement level (Trufant, Vaitai, James, Williams), or aren’t really supposed to play at all if everything goes right (Daniel).
The good news is that they can move on from Vaitai, James and Daniel rather painlessly after next season (cap savings of $13.5 million vs dead $ of $7.5 million), plus they’ll have roughly $45 million of cap space entering next off-season (assuming they don’t go crazy in free agency this year).
If I’m the Lions I don’t like this years draft. A lot of kids didn’t play or had their season in disarray which could’ve affected their preparation. Plus there’s no combine. That’s a lot of variables and unknowns that don’t normally exist. Because of that I’d prefer that they continue to make moves to gear up for the ‘22 and ‘23 drafts. Spread your risk in the ‘21 draft by moving down and acquiring more picks.
But this free agency class actually provides some real opportunity to fill out the middle of the roster. No one has cap space so it’s going to be a buyers market. Focus on guys like FS Malik Hooker, CB Mackenzie Alexander, WR Keelan Cole, WR Adam Humphries, CB Cam Sutton, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, DT Daquan Jones, etc. Decent players that you may be able to get at a major discount on a 2 or 3 year deal.
The key is not overpaying for anyone and focusing on players that were actually cut by their former team. That’s because compensatory picks are based on net losses in free agency. If you lose Kenny Golladay at $18 million per year but sign Will Fuller for $17 million you pretty much break even and no comp pick is awarded.
The good news is that this is entirely within a teams control because the formula is based purely on financials rather than actual production. If the Lions let Golladay go and sign Sammy Watkins for $5 million and he equals or exceeds Golladay’s stats next year it doesn’t matter with regard to the formula. The discrepancy in contracts still awards the Lions with a probable 3rd round comp pick.
This is good for the Lions because they actually have some pretty decent free agents who could fetch sizable contracts and accompanying comp picks (Golladay, Marvin Jones, Okwara, & Everson Griffin). What’s also good is that only players that naturally hit agency are included in the comp pick formula. So Houston doesn’t get a comp pick for cutting JJ Watt and Arizona doesn’t take a net negative in their comp pick calculation for signing him. That makes players that are cut that much more valuable because it doesn’t jeopardize teams comp picks. (Teams like Baltimore and New England routinely take advantage of this).
So, on top of pursuing mid tier FA’s, the Lions should A: hope Golladay, Okwara, Jones, and Griffen (pretty unlikely here, but if they’re smart maybe a late round comp pick) get big deals this off-season, B: focus on signing guys that are cap casualties:
- Kevin Zeitler (OG)
- Malcolm Butler (CB)
- John Brown (WR)
- Adam Humphries (WR)
- LaMarcus Joyner (FS)
- Quinton Jefferson (DT)
- Nick Martin (OG)
- Golden Tate (WR)
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