I just watched the movie again (Amazon, not AMC; just so @scheins doesn't have to weigh in with his obligatory "AMC Sucks") and, like so many people, I love it. It is one of my 5 favorite movies of all-time.
HOWEVER, I have always had problems with the premise -- that the war begins because Don Corleone refuses to let the other families (and Sollozzo) "draw the water from the well" when he refuses to buy into the fledgling heroin racket and provide it with political protection through his vast network of corrupt and compromised contacts.
OK so let's set the stage. It's nearly post-war America and the Mafia, we know (a little bit from GF II and a little just from history, which I think is fair to use to color in the lines) is a mature industry. The Five Families were established as a result of the wars with the "old bosses" and the Black Hand. They operate as independent competitors within their territories but cooperate when it is in their mutual best interest. The framework established is that of franchises -- I've got my ten mile radius, you have yours, and we don't advertise or sell into each other's markets. The problem, of course, is that mobsters are not risk-averse accountants comfortable with the notion that if another party breaks the agreement, they can go to court and get a judgment against them. They live in a Hobbesian world of (literally) dog-eat dog where, if you are content to hang onto what you have and not expand, you're a mark for another, more hungry, more shrewd competitor. And The Commission can't dispense justice -- that will help you, anyhow -- if you're sleeping with the fishes.
At the same time, the Corleone family is the hegemonic power. They are the first among equals and have the most to gain from the maintenance of the current regime. And while Don Corleone endeavors to be "not careless," he also does not seem intent on encroaching on competitors' territories. Again, he benefits the most from the status quo and he is, within this hermetically sealed perspective we enjoy, a man of honor (narrowly defined as adhering to the code these massive scumbags swear to uphold). We get hints that there is (as one would expect) no honor among thieves and that if all of the Five Families were ever devoted to a "all for one, one for all" spirit, it has long since evaporated. The Black Hand has been vanquished and the Italian Mafia dominates the organized crime rackets, as they've eliminated, marginalized, or co-opted mobsters from other backgrounds. So we are presented with a mature industry whose ostensible code is an impediment to individual growth -- the code is no longer aligned with the individual families' immediate best interests.
So let's take it on its face. First, Tom Hagen (a shrewd operator despite lacking the homicidal creativity demonstrated by Michael) correctly identifies the long game that the other families can and probably should play. As far as we know, Don Corleone does not have the power to block the other families from distributing Sollozzo's heroin. So what's to stop Barzini, Tattaglia, and whoever else wants to distribute heroin from doing so? Nothing, as far as the Corloenes are concerned. Now, I guess that the Don has, in the words of Barzini, has behaved in a way that is "not [that] . . . of a friend" by refusing to let the other families access his political contacts for the purpose of engaging in the drug trade. But no one is going to war over that. There are hundreds of slights that go unchecked; no one in this rogue band of sociopaths is going to war over breach of their code. They are going to war for their own benefit. But it's NOT to their benefit. As the Don correctly points out, friendly politicians, judges, and policemen are not going to enthusiastically embrace the heroin trade -- not in 1945 and not just because Don Corleone tells them to do so. Second, killing Don Corleone actually makes it LESS likely that the drug trade will receive protection from at least some of Corleone's contacts. As Tom Hagen points out, many (at least half) of those contacts are personal to Corleone and the ability to wield his influence over them dies with Corleone. It seems like a corrupt politician is not like a borrower on some loan shark's book -- you can't just show up and tell him that MoMo died last week and now he owes you. A lot of the favors owed by these contacts (or bribes paid to them) aren't written down anywhere and probably even Tom Hagen and Sonny don't know the full extent of the Don's network. That is doubly true of the other families. So if the Don dies, it's not like Barzini can meet up with a crooked judge and say "everything that belonged to Corleone, including you, now belongs to me."
Instead, what the other families should be doing is playing the long game -- just like Tom laid it out. They can sell heroin within their own territories, make more money, buy more protection as they slowly identify police and political connections who ARE willing to shield the drug trade in exchange for a cut of the huge profits, and build their organizations. They can also identify members of the Corleone family who (as Michael points out in GF II) are "businessmen" and whose loyalty is tested by the fact that the Corleone Family, out of step with the rest of the families, denies them the ability to engage in the most profitable racket going. (This is the dynamic we see in Goodfellas where Henry sells coke behind Paulie's back because it is too profitable for him to pass up, even though Paulie has forbidden it.). In this way, the other families strengthen their own position, buy more influence, and hollow out the Corleones from within.
Most importantly, I do not see -- at all -- why Sollozzo is willing to be the tip of the spear. It makes zero sense. He's the manufacturer and he already has distributors lined up. The fact that Corleone won't act as a distributor for him and give him political cover is not worth going to war with the biggest family in New York. Not at all. If he sets his organization up correctly, he probably won't be a target for law enforcement as: 1) J. Edgar Hoover is still in denial over the existence of organized crime; and 2) Sollozzo can operate in Sicily with near impunity. If Barzini or Tattaglia or anyone else wants to open up Corleone's territory, that's up to them. Sollozzo is going to have his hands full just setting up his distribution network in the US and he will, of course, be raking in millions in 1945 dollars. The risk/reward is just no there for him.
So let's quickly turn to the others. Tattaglia is, as the Don says, "a pimp" and none too bright. Could Barzini (who, the book tells us apparently, had tried to assassinate Vito back during the wars with the old bosses) con him into starting a war with Corleone? I guess, but how does that work? Tattaglia also knows that he likely isn't strong enough to slug it out with Corleone -- and that he can enter the drug trade in his own territory without Corleone. Now maybe Barzini -- the head of the second most powerful of the Five Families -- has pledged to support Tattaglia (certainly he has), but is Tattaglia SO dense that he doesn't think that Barzini will muscle Tattaglia out of whatever part of the Corleone territory they take over? Doesn't even HE see that he's better off getting in on the ground floor of this new racket and letting the big boys slug it out without him taking the risk of getting eliminated?
Finally, I can see where it might make sense for Barzini to go to war with Corleone. He's a mobster so the long game doesn't always appeal to sociopaths, especially when it's plausible they might win. And he's no spring chicken either. Plus, Vito IS slipping. He's got his own sociopath as his heir apparent, Tom is a good but not great consigliere, and Fredo is the weak link of all weak links. So this may be a good time to strike -- and maybe Vito's refusal to let the other families "draw the water from the well" is the pretext he needs to either get the other families to stay out of the war (that's the most likely outcome) or to even join him. I don't think that's likely -- the long game is a lot better and could put Barzini on top relatively quickly -- but even if Barzini DOES decide to gamble all of his chips on wiping out the Corleones, I don't buy Sollozzo agreeing to be out front and I don't even buy Tattaglia acting as Barzini's beard.
Next up, The Sting.
HOWEVER, I have always had problems with the premise -- that the war begins because Don Corleone refuses to let the other families (and Sollozzo) "draw the water from the well" when he refuses to buy into the fledgling heroin racket and provide it with political protection through his vast network of corrupt and compromised contacts.
OK so let's set the stage. It's nearly post-war America and the Mafia, we know (a little bit from GF II and a little just from history, which I think is fair to use to color in the lines) is a mature industry. The Five Families were established as a result of the wars with the "old bosses" and the Black Hand. They operate as independent competitors within their territories but cooperate when it is in their mutual best interest. The framework established is that of franchises -- I've got my ten mile radius, you have yours, and we don't advertise or sell into each other's markets. The problem, of course, is that mobsters are not risk-averse accountants comfortable with the notion that if another party breaks the agreement, they can go to court and get a judgment against them. They live in a Hobbesian world of (literally) dog-eat dog where, if you are content to hang onto what you have and not expand, you're a mark for another, more hungry, more shrewd competitor. And The Commission can't dispense justice -- that will help you, anyhow -- if you're sleeping with the fishes.
At the same time, the Corleone family is the hegemonic power. They are the first among equals and have the most to gain from the maintenance of the current regime. And while Don Corleone endeavors to be "not careless," he also does not seem intent on encroaching on competitors' territories. Again, he benefits the most from the status quo and he is, within this hermetically sealed perspective we enjoy, a man of honor (narrowly defined as adhering to the code these massive scumbags swear to uphold). We get hints that there is (as one would expect) no honor among thieves and that if all of the Five Families were ever devoted to a "all for one, one for all" spirit, it has long since evaporated. The Black Hand has been vanquished and the Italian Mafia dominates the organized crime rackets, as they've eliminated, marginalized, or co-opted mobsters from other backgrounds. So we are presented with a mature industry whose ostensible code is an impediment to individual growth -- the code is no longer aligned with the individual families' immediate best interests.
So let's take it on its face. First, Tom Hagen (a shrewd operator despite lacking the homicidal creativity demonstrated by Michael) correctly identifies the long game that the other families can and probably should play. As far as we know, Don Corleone does not have the power to block the other families from distributing Sollozzo's heroin. So what's to stop Barzini, Tattaglia, and whoever else wants to distribute heroin from doing so? Nothing, as far as the Corloenes are concerned. Now, I guess that the Don has, in the words of Barzini, has behaved in a way that is "not [that] . . . of a friend" by refusing to let the other families access his political contacts for the purpose of engaging in the drug trade. But no one is going to war over that. There are hundreds of slights that go unchecked; no one in this rogue band of sociopaths is going to war over breach of their code. They are going to war for their own benefit. But it's NOT to their benefit. As the Don correctly points out, friendly politicians, judges, and policemen are not going to enthusiastically embrace the heroin trade -- not in 1945 and not just because Don Corleone tells them to do so. Second, killing Don Corleone actually makes it LESS likely that the drug trade will receive protection from at least some of Corleone's contacts. As Tom Hagen points out, many (at least half) of those contacts are personal to Corleone and the ability to wield his influence over them dies with Corleone. It seems like a corrupt politician is not like a borrower on some loan shark's book -- you can't just show up and tell him that MoMo died last week and now he owes you. A lot of the favors owed by these contacts (or bribes paid to them) aren't written down anywhere and probably even Tom Hagen and Sonny don't know the full extent of the Don's network. That is doubly true of the other families. So if the Don dies, it's not like Barzini can meet up with a crooked judge and say "everything that belonged to Corleone, including you, now belongs to me."
Instead, what the other families should be doing is playing the long game -- just like Tom laid it out. They can sell heroin within their own territories, make more money, buy more protection as they slowly identify police and political connections who ARE willing to shield the drug trade in exchange for a cut of the huge profits, and build their organizations. They can also identify members of the Corleone family who (as Michael points out in GF II) are "businessmen" and whose loyalty is tested by the fact that the Corleone Family, out of step with the rest of the families, denies them the ability to engage in the most profitable racket going. (This is the dynamic we see in Goodfellas where Henry sells coke behind Paulie's back because it is too profitable for him to pass up, even though Paulie has forbidden it.). In this way, the other families strengthen their own position, buy more influence, and hollow out the Corleones from within.
Most importantly, I do not see -- at all -- why Sollozzo is willing to be the tip of the spear. It makes zero sense. He's the manufacturer and he already has distributors lined up. The fact that Corleone won't act as a distributor for him and give him political cover is not worth going to war with the biggest family in New York. Not at all. If he sets his organization up correctly, he probably won't be a target for law enforcement as: 1) J. Edgar Hoover is still in denial over the existence of organized crime; and 2) Sollozzo can operate in Sicily with near impunity. If Barzini or Tattaglia or anyone else wants to open up Corleone's territory, that's up to them. Sollozzo is going to have his hands full just setting up his distribution network in the US and he will, of course, be raking in millions in 1945 dollars. The risk/reward is just no there for him.
So let's quickly turn to the others. Tattaglia is, as the Don says, "a pimp" and none too bright. Could Barzini (who, the book tells us apparently, had tried to assassinate Vito back during the wars with the old bosses) con him into starting a war with Corleone? I guess, but how does that work? Tattaglia also knows that he likely isn't strong enough to slug it out with Corleone -- and that he can enter the drug trade in his own territory without Corleone. Now maybe Barzini -- the head of the second most powerful of the Five Families -- has pledged to support Tattaglia (certainly he has), but is Tattaglia SO dense that he doesn't think that Barzini will muscle Tattaglia out of whatever part of the Corleone territory they take over? Doesn't even HE see that he's better off getting in on the ground floor of this new racket and letting the big boys slug it out without him taking the risk of getting eliminated?
Finally, I can see where it might make sense for Barzini to go to war with Corleone. He's a mobster so the long game doesn't always appeal to sociopaths, especially when it's plausible they might win. And he's no spring chicken either. Plus, Vito IS slipping. He's got his own sociopath as his heir apparent, Tom is a good but not great consigliere, and Fredo is the weak link of all weak links. So this may be a good time to strike -- and maybe Vito's refusal to let the other families "draw the water from the well" is the pretext he needs to either get the other families to stay out of the war (that's the most likely outcome) or to even join him. I don't think that's likely -- the long game is a lot better and could put Barzini on top relatively quickly -- but even if Barzini DOES decide to gamble all of his chips on wiping out the Corleones, I don't buy Sollozzo agreeing to be out front and I don't even buy Tattaglia acting as Barzini's beard.
Next up, The Sting.
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