The ACC is absolutely a dead league, locked in a long-term GOR where its members make substantially less than Michigan. Even assuming (correctly) that adding Michigan would cause the network to reopen the contract, and Michigan is worth an upward revision of 15-20% (which it is believed to add to the B1G deal), that still results in TV money in the $38 range.
What does make sense is the most valuable ACC members coming to Michigan to dissolve the GOR and form a new league. It takes at least 8 existing ACC members to dissolve the GOR. We know for a fact that the most valuable members of this league are despondent about the current and future gaps in revenue between them and the SEC/B1G until 2036. The problem the Florida States and North Carolina have is there are not 8 members of the ACC that have standing invites to the B1G or SEC. While it's likely that the B12 would have an interest in 4-6 schools, no ACC schools wants to make a lateral move (at best) to the B12. Schools like Pitt or NCState, as an example, would rather ride it out in the ACC for now and hope that by 2036, the timing works out such that their programs have improved to a point where the B1G or SEC would have an interest.
Enter Michigan. If Michigan approached the top schools of the ACC and indicated an interest in starting a brand new league, it could work. It would have to include at least 8 members ( to dissolve the GOR). You wouldn't want the league to be too large because then you have the same revenue issues as the ACC--too many schools in the league would not justify their own value in a TV contract commensurate to what the SEC and B1G make. Even though we're in the world of 16-18 team conferences, I think you'd stay with 12 to start. That leaves open the possibility to add 4 additional schools down the road.
But if you're Michigan, you also want to make this an attractive association for purposes of the academic side with the idea that you'd be building a similar association to the CIC.
What would be in this for the ACC schools? More money for one. Associating with Michigan as opposed to say BC and Wake Forest would put a lot more dollars in your pocket. Second, adding a group of schools from the ACC would allow these schools to maintain rivalries whereas if they went to the B1G or SEC, they'd be going it alone or at best with 1-2 other schools.
What should matter to Michigan? You wouldn't want to be the only school in a southern league. The group of schools should be somewhat geographically diverse so that everyone has some form of travel costs. The schools that may not bring eyeballs for purposes of a TV deal should bring some added benefit-whether that's a presence in a fertile recruiting area, a large TV market, etc.
Something like this would be ideal for Michigan if this scenario were to come to pass
Michigan
Pitt (close geographical fit)
North Carolina
Duke (basketball doesn't generally drive TV, but Duke is an exception)
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami
Clemson
Stanford
Cal
What does make sense is the most valuable ACC members coming to Michigan to dissolve the GOR and form a new league. It takes at least 8 existing ACC members to dissolve the GOR. We know for a fact that the most valuable members of this league are despondent about the current and future gaps in revenue between them and the SEC/B1G until 2036. The problem the Florida States and North Carolina have is there are not 8 members of the ACC that have standing invites to the B1G or SEC. While it's likely that the B12 would have an interest in 4-6 schools, no ACC schools wants to make a lateral move (at best) to the B12. Schools like Pitt or NCState, as an example, would rather ride it out in the ACC for now and hope that by 2036, the timing works out such that their programs have improved to a point where the B1G or SEC would have an interest.
Enter Michigan. If Michigan approached the top schools of the ACC and indicated an interest in starting a brand new league, it could work. It would have to include at least 8 members ( to dissolve the GOR). You wouldn't want the league to be too large because then you have the same revenue issues as the ACC--too many schools in the league would not justify their own value in a TV contract commensurate to what the SEC and B1G make. Even though we're in the world of 16-18 team conferences, I think you'd stay with 12 to start. That leaves open the possibility to add 4 additional schools down the road.
But if you're Michigan, you also want to make this an attractive association for purposes of the academic side with the idea that you'd be building a similar association to the CIC.
What would be in this for the ACC schools? More money for one. Associating with Michigan as opposed to say BC and Wake Forest would put a lot more dollars in your pocket. Second, adding a group of schools from the ACC would allow these schools to maintain rivalries whereas if they went to the B1G or SEC, they'd be going it alone or at best with 1-2 other schools.
What should matter to Michigan? You wouldn't want to be the only school in a southern league. The group of schools should be somewhat geographically diverse so that everyone has some form of travel costs. The schools that may not bring eyeballs for purposes of a TV deal should bring some added benefit-whether that's a presence in a fertile recruiting area, a large TV market, etc.
Something like this would be ideal for Michigan if this scenario were to come to pass
Michigan
Pitt (close geographical fit)
North Carolina
Duke (basketball doesn't generally drive TV, but Duke is an exception)
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami
Clemson
Stanford
Cal
