Once again there's a segment of online fans that think Michigan or a section therein is showing incompetence and they've had it. This time its NIL dollars and recruiting of blue chip players.
Emerging in my mind as I watch this all play out is a consideration of how aspects of a metrics driven approach to NIL use might work:
To start here's some numbers I pulled from the internets on kids making the NFL. Most of our "good" starters tend to fit into this category in that they end up having a cup of coffee in the league and I believe that's all that is represented here, at least a cup of coffee in the league:
Five-stars: (65.7%) Four-stars: (23%) For discussions sake lets say high four stars (top 150) hit at 40%. I won't bother talking about 3 stars because it seems they are pretty irrelevant when it comes to NIL spend.
So in choosing whether or not to throw limited NIL money at recruits (let's stick to five stars and high four stars first) - you are setting 35%-50% of your money on fire (at least) with whatever you spend assuming you are willing to pay near market for all five stars and high four stars. So let's say we've got a 5 million dollar budget (making up a number) for high end high school recruits in any year. Roughly 2 million is gone based on the 40%(ish) fail rate.
Looking back at the highest rated recruits in Jim Harbaugh's tenure and considering our hypothetical investment of millions in them in an NIL world and what payoff it would give let's look at our blue chip recruits. I'll do 5.9 and higher because it roughly equates to top 150 which roughly equates to NIL. The lists are ranked from highest ranked recruits in this range to lowest. I put hit or miss corresponding to whether or not it would be worth paying them and I was pretty friendly on hits calling a one year starter a hit.
2016: Gary (hit), Bredeson (hit), Asiasi (miss), Peters (miss), Onwenu (hit), Mitchell (miss), Crawford (miss), David Long (hit) 4/8 hits
2017 Peoples-Jones (hit), Anthony (miss), Solomon (miss), Ruiz (hit), Singleton (miss), McCaffrey (miss), Vilain (miss), Thomas (hit), Black (hit), Collins (hit) 5/10
2018 Aidan Hutchinson (hit), Myles Sims (miss) 1/2
2019 Hinton (hit), Hill (hit), Charbonnet (miss), Jones (hit), Smith (hit) 4/5 (good year)
2020 Seldon (miss), Henning (miss), Mullings (hit), Corum (hit), Green-Warren (miss) 2/5
2021 JJ (hit), Donovon (hit), El-Hadi (hit), Crippen (hit), Hansen (miss) Colson (hit), Benny (hit) 6/7
2022 Johnson (hit), Moore (hit), Morris (hit), Graham (hit) Clemons (miss), Sabb (miss) 0/2
2023 English (miss) 0/1
So the overall "worth it" rate turns out to have been 26/44 or 59%. Its worth noting that the top 2 (or 1 if there's only one top 150) hit rate is only 8/15 so it doesn't even get better for the top end of the class. However, I'm quite certain if those top end recruits were truly elite ranked (top 15) it would increase.
So if you've got a 5 million dollar a year NIL budget for top 150 high school recruits you've spent $40 million and set $18-20 million on fire with recruits that didn't work out!!!!
Now let's consider the hit rate of the NIL FREE level 4 star recruits (non top 150) - so all 4 star recruits 5.8 or lower:
2016: Ron Johnson (miss), Brad Hawkins (hit), Kemp (hit) Bush (hit), Walker (miss), Mbem-Bosse (miss), Eubanks (hit), Lavert Hill (hit) 5/8
2017 St. Juste (miss), Ross (hit), Samuels (miss), Malone-Hatcher (miss), Hudson (miss), Jeter (hit), Filagia (miss), Oliver Martin (miss), 2/8
2018 Green (miss), Milton (miss), Mayfield (hit), McGrone (hit), Muhammad (miss) 2/5
2019 Rumler (miss), McNamara (hit), Barnhardt (hit), All (hit), Quinten Johnson (hit) Michael Morris (hit), Giles Jackson (miss), Jalen Perry (miss), Trevor Keegan (hit), Cornelius Johnson (hit) 7/10
2020 Wheeler (miss), Savage (miss), Zinter (hit), McGregor (hit), Mohan (miss), Morant (miss), Persi (hit), Paige (hit) 4/8
2021 Bennett (miss), Bounds (miss), Dixon (miss), Rooks (miss) 0/4
2022 Kody Jones (miss), Loveland (hit), Rolder (hit), Berry (hit), 3/4
2023 Morgan (hit), Cabana (miss), Bridgeman (miss), Moore (hit), Herring (hit), Etta (hit), Link (miss), Calhoun (miss), Pierce (mis), Hill (hit) 5/10
Here the overall hit rate is a LITTLE lower as expected 28/58...but this is still a good range for hits and has a few stars but not as many as the above list.
In the first group you theoretically have to throw money at kids and you will burn half of it. In the second list you spend nothing because they aren't in the NIL tier (estimating here based on what we read).
So given all of this, what might a smart strategy be for use of NIL funds IF you do NOT have limitless NIL money and/or you want to use it somewhat judiciously?????
IN MY OPINION
1. Be VERY judicious about NIL funds for high school recruits. The best of the best (Underwood, JJ, Donos) yeah go for it, the rest, know you are going to be wasting some money so be sure they are cultural fits too. The range from say 25 - 150 is particularly risky (high four stars) for NIL money waste based on hit rates. Also try to find the exceptions that aren't asking for checks.
2. Hammer the high school 4 stars just outside the 4 star range. They are free.
3. Take advantage of other schools work and luck by identifying stars pursuing underclass transfers. The Hausmans and Barhams of the world for example will give you a five star performance this year. Other schools get these gems, mine them. You likely wont waste money here because you have tape and can project accurately. Great majority of this NIL money spent will be used and a "hit".
4. Retain your NFL eligible upper classmen. Almost 100% usage of NIL funds for hit
5. Fill in dire needs with upper class trasfers - also a safe, efficient spend.
Its hard for people to adjust to this new world because the formulas have been clear for a long time. You need great coaching AND you need high four stars and five stars.
The game has changed though and given that we aren't going to be a Ferrari in the parking lot program (or one that will accept flushing millions down the toilet yearly), it seems we might be a HELLUVA lot smarter than some are claiming.
We still need to find a way to procure the JJs and Donos (and Barhams
) so this is not to suggest we don't need some hits on high school recruits but early on with NIL uncertainty and ramp up our approach seems to make a LOT of sense, especially considering we happened to win a national title in the background.
In fact some of you grasping to hope for a sharp increase in blue chips, you could end up being disappointed because, frankly, this strategy seems to make a lot of sense even in the longer term (and I'm not saying they are using it or plan to use it, just that with good coaching it could work at the high levels)
Emerging in my mind as I watch this all play out is a consideration of how aspects of a metrics driven approach to NIL use might work:
To start here's some numbers I pulled from the internets on kids making the NFL. Most of our "good" starters tend to fit into this category in that they end up having a cup of coffee in the league and I believe that's all that is represented here, at least a cup of coffee in the league:
Five-stars: (65.7%) Four-stars: (23%) For discussions sake lets say high four stars (top 150) hit at 40%. I won't bother talking about 3 stars because it seems they are pretty irrelevant when it comes to NIL spend.
So in choosing whether or not to throw limited NIL money at recruits (let's stick to five stars and high four stars first) - you are setting 35%-50% of your money on fire (at least) with whatever you spend assuming you are willing to pay near market for all five stars and high four stars. So let's say we've got a 5 million dollar budget (making up a number) for high end high school recruits in any year. Roughly 2 million is gone based on the 40%(ish) fail rate.
Looking back at the highest rated recruits in Jim Harbaugh's tenure and considering our hypothetical investment of millions in them in an NIL world and what payoff it would give let's look at our blue chip recruits. I'll do 5.9 and higher because it roughly equates to top 150 which roughly equates to NIL. The lists are ranked from highest ranked recruits in this range to lowest. I put hit or miss corresponding to whether or not it would be worth paying them and I was pretty friendly on hits calling a one year starter a hit.
2016: Gary (hit), Bredeson (hit), Asiasi (miss), Peters (miss), Onwenu (hit), Mitchell (miss), Crawford (miss), David Long (hit) 4/8 hits
2017 Peoples-Jones (hit), Anthony (miss), Solomon (miss), Ruiz (hit), Singleton (miss), McCaffrey (miss), Vilain (miss), Thomas (hit), Black (hit), Collins (hit) 5/10
2018 Aidan Hutchinson (hit), Myles Sims (miss) 1/2
2019 Hinton (hit), Hill (hit), Charbonnet (miss), Jones (hit), Smith (hit) 4/5 (good year)
2020 Seldon (miss), Henning (miss), Mullings (hit), Corum (hit), Green-Warren (miss) 2/5
2021 JJ (hit), Donovon (hit), El-Hadi (hit), Crippen (hit), Hansen (miss) Colson (hit), Benny (hit) 6/7
2022 Johnson (hit), Moore (hit), Morris (hit), Graham (hit) Clemons (miss), Sabb (miss) 0/2
2023 English (miss) 0/1
So the overall "worth it" rate turns out to have been 26/44 or 59%. Its worth noting that the top 2 (or 1 if there's only one top 150) hit rate is only 8/15 so it doesn't even get better for the top end of the class. However, I'm quite certain if those top end recruits were truly elite ranked (top 15) it would increase.
So if you've got a 5 million dollar a year NIL budget for top 150 high school recruits you've spent $40 million and set $18-20 million on fire with recruits that didn't work out!!!!
Now let's consider the hit rate of the NIL FREE level 4 star recruits (non top 150) - so all 4 star recruits 5.8 or lower:
2016: Ron Johnson (miss), Brad Hawkins (hit), Kemp (hit) Bush (hit), Walker (miss), Mbem-Bosse (miss), Eubanks (hit), Lavert Hill (hit) 5/8
2017 St. Juste (miss), Ross (hit), Samuels (miss), Malone-Hatcher (miss), Hudson (miss), Jeter (hit), Filagia (miss), Oliver Martin (miss), 2/8
2018 Green (miss), Milton (miss), Mayfield (hit), McGrone (hit), Muhammad (miss) 2/5
2019 Rumler (miss), McNamara (hit), Barnhardt (hit), All (hit), Quinten Johnson (hit) Michael Morris (hit), Giles Jackson (miss), Jalen Perry (miss), Trevor Keegan (hit), Cornelius Johnson (hit) 7/10
2020 Wheeler (miss), Savage (miss), Zinter (hit), McGregor (hit), Mohan (miss), Morant (miss), Persi (hit), Paige (hit) 4/8
2021 Bennett (miss), Bounds (miss), Dixon (miss), Rooks (miss) 0/4
2022 Kody Jones (miss), Loveland (hit), Rolder (hit), Berry (hit), 3/4
2023 Morgan (hit), Cabana (miss), Bridgeman (miss), Moore (hit), Herring (hit), Etta (hit), Link (miss), Calhoun (miss), Pierce (mis), Hill (hit) 5/10
Here the overall hit rate is a LITTLE lower as expected 28/58...but this is still a good range for hits and has a few stars but not as many as the above list.
In the first group you theoretically have to throw money at kids and you will burn half of it. In the second list you spend nothing because they aren't in the NIL tier (estimating here based on what we read).
So given all of this, what might a smart strategy be for use of NIL funds IF you do NOT have limitless NIL money and/or you want to use it somewhat judiciously?????
IN MY OPINION
1. Be VERY judicious about NIL funds for high school recruits. The best of the best (Underwood, JJ, Donos) yeah go for it, the rest, know you are going to be wasting some money so be sure they are cultural fits too. The range from say 25 - 150 is particularly risky (high four stars) for NIL money waste based on hit rates. Also try to find the exceptions that aren't asking for checks.
2. Hammer the high school 4 stars just outside the 4 star range. They are free.
3. Take advantage of other schools work and luck by identifying stars pursuing underclass transfers. The Hausmans and Barhams of the world for example will give you a five star performance this year. Other schools get these gems, mine them. You likely wont waste money here because you have tape and can project accurately. Great majority of this NIL money spent will be used and a "hit".
4. Retain your NFL eligible upper classmen. Almost 100% usage of NIL funds for hit
5. Fill in dire needs with upper class trasfers - also a safe, efficient spend.
Its hard for people to adjust to this new world because the formulas have been clear for a long time. You need great coaching AND you need high four stars and five stars.
The game has changed though and given that we aren't going to be a Ferrari in the parking lot program (or one that will accept flushing millions down the toilet yearly), it seems we might be a HELLUVA lot smarter than some are claiming.
We still need to find a way to procure the JJs and Donos (and Barhams
) so this is not to suggest we don't need some hits on high school recruits but early on with NIL uncertainty and ramp up our approach seems to make a LOT of sense, especially considering we happened to win a national title in the background.In fact some of you grasping to hope for a sharp increase in blue chips, you could end up being disappointed because, frankly, this strategy seems to make a lot of sense even in the longer term (and I'm not saying they are using it or plan to use it, just that with good coaching it could work at the high levels)
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