From the 2023 "any team can beat any other college basketball team on any given night" files:
Nebraska just handled PSU at home, breaking a 4-game and 6 of 7 game losing stretch. But I believe, like most B1G programs, Nebraska is a different team at home than on the road.
While people are solely focused on Michigan's path to the NCAA Tourney, many need to really gauge what is going on elsewhere in the league to really grasp what could most likely happen.
Right now, Purdue is a number one seed and in the tourney without issue.
IU, as the only other ranked B1G program and with a win over #1 Purdue, is in, probably as a 4/5 seed depending on their finish.
Rutgers, at 16-7 overall and alone at 8-4 in 2nd place in the B1G, is in pretty easily right now, though they have a killer schedule (@IU, @UI, @@PSU, @Wisky, and vs Michigan) down the stretch.
Then things get interesting:
Of the other 7-5 teams, there are four currently at 16-7 overall: Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Northwestern...Let's assume that 3 of these teams get in (we will get back to that point later).
Then out if the remaining 7-5 teams (there are currently 6 teams tied for third place), Iowa is 15-8 overall, and Michigan is 13-10.
Behind those teams, we have MSU at 6-6 (14-9 overall), and Wisconsin (13-9) and PSU (14-9) at 5-7.
I will list what I predict are probable losses for each team and their resulting final record.
Sadly for Northwestern, I have them going 2-6 in their last 8, with the 6 losses coming vs Purdue, IU, @Illinois, @UMD, and @Rutgers.
I have PSU and Iowa at home and @OSU as tossups where I feel they will drop 1.
This will leave Northwestern at 18-13, 9-11 in the B1G and once again, on the "gotta win some B1G Tournament games" list.
Here are my predictions for what has been an up to this date, completely unpredictable season:
IN
Purdue-29-3, 7-1 prediction to finish, 18-3 in the B1G
Maryland - 21-10, 5-3 prediction to finish, 12-8 in the B1G with losses @MSU, vs Purdue, and @PSU.
Indiana- 20-11, 4-4 prediction to finish, 11-9 in the B1G
PSU- 20-11, 6-2 prediction to finish 11-9 in the B1G with losses @Maryland, and @Northwestern.
Rutgers- 20-11, 4-4 prediction to finish 12-8 in the B1G with losses @IU, @ Illinois, @PSU, and either vs Michigan or @ Wisky
Illinois- 20-11, 4-4 prediction to finish 11-9 in the B1G with losses @PSU, @Purdue, @IU...and I have a suspicion that Illinois will drop one between Michigan at home, Rutgers at home, and @OSU...
Work to Do
Michigan- 18-13, 5-3 prediction to finish, 12-8 in the B1G with losses @Rutgers, @IU, and @Illinois (though I think that Michigan can pull an upset @Illinois, and @Rutgers. Needs one tourney win- two to be safe.
Northwestern at 18-13, Prediction to finish 9-11 in the B1G, 2-6 in their last with losses coming vs Purdue, IU, @Illinois, @UMD, and @Rutgers.(1 or 2 wins to get in)
Iowa-19-12, 4-4 prediction to finish, 11-9 in the B1G with losses @Purdue, @Northwestern, @Wisconsin, and @IU. One tourney win should do it for Iowa
Wisconsin- 18-12, 5-3 prediction to finish, 10-10 in the B1G with losses @PSU, @Michigan, and vs Purdue. Needs 2 tourney wins
MSU- 18-13, 4-4 prediction to finish, 10-10 in the B1G with losses @Iowa, @Michigan, and vs IU, with a split of Maryland at home and @OSU.
Illinois is an interesting case, because they could easily go 5-3, or 2-6 in their last 8, which would leave them on the "Work to do" list. In addition, road wins will be huge for these teams when they face one another.
I believe that the B1G will get 8 teams in the tourney, but it's up to these last 4 teams' performances in the B1G Tourney to see who will make it.
Nebraska just handled PSU at home, breaking a 4-game and 6 of 7 game losing stretch. But I believe, like most B1G programs, Nebraska is a different team at home than on the road.
While people are solely focused on Michigan's path to the NCAA Tourney, many need to really gauge what is going on elsewhere in the league to really grasp what could most likely happen.
Right now, Purdue is a number one seed and in the tourney without issue.
IU, as the only other ranked B1G program and with a win over #1 Purdue, is in, probably as a 4/5 seed depending on their finish.
Rutgers, at 16-7 overall and alone at 8-4 in 2nd place in the B1G, is in pretty easily right now, though they have a killer schedule (@IU, @UI, @@PSU, @Wisky, and vs Michigan) down the stretch.
Then things get interesting:
Of the other 7-5 teams, there are four currently at 16-7 overall: Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Northwestern...Let's assume that 3 of these teams get in (we will get back to that point later).
Then out if the remaining 7-5 teams (there are currently 6 teams tied for third place), Iowa is 15-8 overall, and Michigan is 13-10.
Behind those teams, we have MSU at 6-6 (14-9 overall), and Wisconsin (13-9) and PSU (14-9) at 5-7.
I will list what I predict are probable losses for each team and their resulting final record.
Sadly for Northwestern, I have them going 2-6 in their last 8, with the 6 losses coming vs Purdue, IU, @Illinois, @UMD, and @Rutgers.
I have PSU and Iowa at home and @OSU as tossups where I feel they will drop 1.
This will leave Northwestern at 18-13, 9-11 in the B1G and once again, on the "gotta win some B1G Tournament games" list.
Here are my predictions for what has been an up to this date, completely unpredictable season:
IN
Purdue-29-3, 7-1 prediction to finish, 18-3 in the B1G
Maryland - 21-10, 5-3 prediction to finish, 12-8 in the B1G with losses @MSU, vs Purdue, and @PSU.
Indiana- 20-11, 4-4 prediction to finish, 11-9 in the B1G
PSU- 20-11, 6-2 prediction to finish 11-9 in the B1G with losses @Maryland, and @Northwestern.
Rutgers- 20-11, 4-4 prediction to finish 12-8 in the B1G with losses @IU, @ Illinois, @PSU, and either vs Michigan or @ Wisky
Illinois- 20-11, 4-4 prediction to finish 11-9 in the B1G with losses @PSU, @Purdue, @IU...and I have a suspicion that Illinois will drop one between Michigan at home, Rutgers at home, and @OSU...
Work to Do
Michigan- 18-13, 5-3 prediction to finish, 12-8 in the B1G with losses @Rutgers, @IU, and @Illinois (though I think that Michigan can pull an upset @Illinois, and @Rutgers. Needs one tourney win- two to be safe.
Northwestern at 18-13, Prediction to finish 9-11 in the B1G, 2-6 in their last with losses coming vs Purdue, IU, @Illinois, @UMD, and @Rutgers.(1 or 2 wins to get in)
Iowa-19-12, 4-4 prediction to finish, 11-9 in the B1G with losses @Purdue, @Northwestern, @Wisconsin, and @IU. One tourney win should do it for Iowa
Wisconsin- 18-12, 5-3 prediction to finish, 10-10 in the B1G with losses @PSU, @Michigan, and vs Purdue. Needs 2 tourney wins
MSU- 18-13, 4-4 prediction to finish, 10-10 in the B1G with losses @Iowa, @Michigan, and vs IU, with a split of Maryland at home and @OSU.
Illinois is an interesting case, because they could easily go 5-3, or 2-6 in their last 8, which would leave them on the "Work to do" list. In addition, road wins will be huge for these teams when they face one another.
I believe that the B1G will get 8 teams in the tourney, but it's up to these last 4 teams' performances in the B1G Tourney to see who will make it.
