Let me start out by saying I don't post here often. I am normally pretty level headed, and anything that gets me up in arms, I know that I'll get over it and don't necessarily need to come here and vent. However, this whole Dax Hill thing shook me to my college football fan core, and I actually need to get this off my chest. Unfortunately, I am a Michigan fan in Ohio and don't really have anyone who follows UM to the extent that I do, so here I am.
When Harbaugh was hired, like most other Michigan fans, I was over the moon excited. I felt that we were going to catch the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world. I immediately started plotting out the next couple years. 2015 was going to be a 10 win season, 2016 was going to be a really good team that was going to beat Ohio State and potentially be in the playoffs, 2017 was going to be a down year, 2018 was going to be somewhere in between 16 and 17, and 2019 was going to be when the Harbaugh machine was taking over college football.
So 2015 came, and the team just seemed to get better every week. Finished with 10 wins. The class of 2016 recruiting was outstanding. Everything is on track.
2016 Obviously a great start, fell short of beating OSU and the playoffs, but still on the right trajectory. The 2017 recruiting class was another fantastic class. We are now starting to stack recruiting classes on top of each other. This is the most important piece of building a college football dynasty, being able to stack recruiting classes on top of each other. So now we have started recruiting high end talent like Gary and DPJ, have plenty of the 4 stars, mixed in with the 3 star program type guys, but even these guys are ones that have potential.
Now right after signing day 2017, a weird thing happened. Normally, this is when you start hearing and reading about the next recruiting class, but instead we started hearing about 2019 prospects instead. It seemed like the 2018 class never really got going and ended up being a disappointing class overall. We were not able to stack that third class on top of the 2016 and 2017 classes. This is not meant to be negative toward the kids in that class, and there are quite a few kids that I like in the class, but there just isn't enough top end talent in the class to go along with the guys that need time to develop in order to go to that next tier. The 2017 season, in my eyes was going to be a down year regardless, we just lost too many guys. Now it didn't exactly play out the way I thought it would. I assumed the offense, with a returning QB, would carry the team early while the defense developed over the season. Obviously, this is not the way it played out, and I'm not going to rehash the offensive ineptitude, but the way the defense played that year does play into the overall narrative of where this is going.
In my initial assessment right after Harbaugh's first recruiting class, I assumed the 2018 season would be a pretty good season, with Peters at the helm. Obviously, for whatever reason, Peters never really gained Harbaugh's favor. Enter Shea Patterson. This combined with the way the defense played in 2017, with most of the defense returning intact, raised my expectations for the season. So that is great, right. My initial assessment of 2019 being the year that we start legitimately competing for championships and the playoffs consistently. One year ahead of schedule. However, the fact that we started to realize that the recruiting class of 2016 was too good and we were going to probably be losing guys to the NFL besides Gary. So now the potential of losing Bush, Hill, Long, Hudson(remember I'm still at the beginning of the 18 season here), and even Shea, which in the long term stunts the younger QB's growth as well. I have reset my expectations for the 2019 season. I'm now thinking that our 2019 recruiting class is going to be really good, but 2018 is the year for beating O$U, making the playoffs, etc. So along comes the ND game, and while we lost, one thing I took from that game was the fact that DMac looks like the real deal. So, I'm back on the long term train. Our QB problem is solved for the immediate future. 2019 might be a rebuilding year and our 2018 class is a weak link, but the 2019 recruiting class will make up for it, and there will be some talent that emerges in 2020 from that 18 class in their third year in the program. But the important thing is still to stack as many classes as possible with high level talent. Throughout the season, everything is going according to plan. Team is winning, we have a couple 5 stars and bunch of 4 stars in the recruiting class, with potentially another 5 star or 2(depending on which service you are looking at). Then comes the Ohio St beat down. Now ZH isn't as strong of a possibility, Brohm stays at Purdue so any GK dreams are gone. I'm an optimist by nature, so at this point I'm still hoping that we land ZH. So I'm still on the long term train that JH is going to get us to where we want to be, competing with Alabama and Clemson.
So I went through all that for a couple reasons. First, it was therapeutic for me. Second, I want to set the mindset for where I was at the point to setup the rest where I lost all faith in college football.
So, now the next thing that happens is Urban retires. Shit. First of all, I want to beat him, not some Ryan Day second rate O$U team. But the thing that really gets me about Urban retiring, is I feel that was the death knell for ZH to Michigan. But that's ok we still have guys like Dax Hill, right.
So, once Dax Hill flipped to Alabama, that is when I finally came to the realization that, we are never going to be able to consistently, legitimately compete with the Alabamas, Clemsons, and Georgias. You have to have talents like Daxton Hill, Zach Harrison, Najee Harris, Isaiah Wilson, Otis Reese, Willie Gay (two guys tailor made for the viper position), hell even Mekhi Becton(when you are desperate for tackles). I know we get our share of talented players, but when you have Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and OSU recruiting consistently like they have been; you have to land these types of players. It always seems like something happens to keep us right outside where we want to be. A poor spot in 2016, an unmotivated team in 2018 against Ohio St, last minute recruiting losses, etc. I have come to the realization that under the current setup in CFB, no one stands a chance. It's Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and everyone else right now. Sure, other teams will cycle in and out of that top group, but these 3 are the only ones with Urban retiring that I see consistently staying in that top tier year after year in the foreseeable future.
Now I know that while we still go after those top guys, the lower rated, high ceiling type guys like Ojabo, Milton, Welschof, and Bell are really the guys that are going to be able to get us to that next level. These types if you hit on enough relatively close together to go along with the Hintons and Charbonets are what is going to take us to the next level. It's tough to hit on enough of these guys consistently to really do much more than cycle in and out of that top group and hope for a magical season every once in a while.
Sorry for the rambling, most of this went straight from brain to keyboard, but I do feel a bit better.
When Harbaugh was hired, like most other Michigan fans, I was over the moon excited. I felt that we were going to catch the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world. I immediately started plotting out the next couple years. 2015 was going to be a 10 win season, 2016 was going to be a really good team that was going to beat Ohio State and potentially be in the playoffs, 2017 was going to be a down year, 2018 was going to be somewhere in between 16 and 17, and 2019 was going to be when the Harbaugh machine was taking over college football.
So 2015 came, and the team just seemed to get better every week. Finished with 10 wins. The class of 2016 recruiting was outstanding. Everything is on track.
2016 Obviously a great start, fell short of beating OSU and the playoffs, but still on the right trajectory. The 2017 recruiting class was another fantastic class. We are now starting to stack recruiting classes on top of each other. This is the most important piece of building a college football dynasty, being able to stack recruiting classes on top of each other. So now we have started recruiting high end talent like Gary and DPJ, have plenty of the 4 stars, mixed in with the 3 star program type guys, but even these guys are ones that have potential.
Now right after signing day 2017, a weird thing happened. Normally, this is when you start hearing and reading about the next recruiting class, but instead we started hearing about 2019 prospects instead. It seemed like the 2018 class never really got going and ended up being a disappointing class overall. We were not able to stack that third class on top of the 2016 and 2017 classes. This is not meant to be negative toward the kids in that class, and there are quite a few kids that I like in the class, but there just isn't enough top end talent in the class to go along with the guys that need time to develop in order to go to that next tier. The 2017 season, in my eyes was going to be a down year regardless, we just lost too many guys. Now it didn't exactly play out the way I thought it would. I assumed the offense, with a returning QB, would carry the team early while the defense developed over the season. Obviously, this is not the way it played out, and I'm not going to rehash the offensive ineptitude, but the way the defense played that year does play into the overall narrative of where this is going.
In my initial assessment right after Harbaugh's first recruiting class, I assumed the 2018 season would be a pretty good season, with Peters at the helm. Obviously, for whatever reason, Peters never really gained Harbaugh's favor. Enter Shea Patterson. This combined with the way the defense played in 2017, with most of the defense returning intact, raised my expectations for the season. So that is great, right. My initial assessment of 2019 being the year that we start legitimately competing for championships and the playoffs consistently. One year ahead of schedule. However, the fact that we started to realize that the recruiting class of 2016 was too good and we were going to probably be losing guys to the NFL besides Gary. So now the potential of losing Bush, Hill, Long, Hudson(remember I'm still at the beginning of the 18 season here), and even Shea, which in the long term stunts the younger QB's growth as well. I have reset my expectations for the 2019 season. I'm now thinking that our 2019 recruiting class is going to be really good, but 2018 is the year for beating O$U, making the playoffs, etc. So along comes the ND game, and while we lost, one thing I took from that game was the fact that DMac looks like the real deal. So, I'm back on the long term train. Our QB problem is solved for the immediate future. 2019 might be a rebuilding year and our 2018 class is a weak link, but the 2019 recruiting class will make up for it, and there will be some talent that emerges in 2020 from that 18 class in their third year in the program. But the important thing is still to stack as many classes as possible with high level talent. Throughout the season, everything is going according to plan. Team is winning, we have a couple 5 stars and bunch of 4 stars in the recruiting class, with potentially another 5 star or 2(depending on which service you are looking at). Then comes the Ohio St beat down. Now ZH isn't as strong of a possibility, Brohm stays at Purdue so any GK dreams are gone. I'm an optimist by nature, so at this point I'm still hoping that we land ZH. So I'm still on the long term train that JH is going to get us to where we want to be, competing with Alabama and Clemson.
So I went through all that for a couple reasons. First, it was therapeutic for me. Second, I want to set the mindset for where I was at the point to setup the rest where I lost all faith in college football.
So, now the next thing that happens is Urban retires. Shit. First of all, I want to beat him, not some Ryan Day second rate O$U team. But the thing that really gets me about Urban retiring, is I feel that was the death knell for ZH to Michigan. But that's ok we still have guys like Dax Hill, right.
So, once Dax Hill flipped to Alabama, that is when I finally came to the realization that, we are never going to be able to consistently, legitimately compete with the Alabamas, Clemsons, and Georgias. You have to have talents like Daxton Hill, Zach Harrison, Najee Harris, Isaiah Wilson, Otis Reese, Willie Gay (two guys tailor made for the viper position), hell even Mekhi Becton(when you are desperate for tackles). I know we get our share of talented players, but when you have Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and OSU recruiting consistently like they have been; you have to land these types of players. It always seems like something happens to keep us right outside where we want to be. A poor spot in 2016, an unmotivated team in 2018 against Ohio St, last minute recruiting losses, etc. I have come to the realization that under the current setup in CFB, no one stands a chance. It's Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and everyone else right now. Sure, other teams will cycle in and out of that top group, but these 3 are the only ones with Urban retiring that I see consistently staying in that top tier year after year in the foreseeable future.
Now I know that while we still go after those top guys, the lower rated, high ceiling type guys like Ojabo, Milton, Welschof, and Bell are really the guys that are going to be able to get us to that next level. These types if you hit on enough relatively close together to go along with the Hintons and Charbonets are what is going to take us to the next level. It's tough to hit on enough of these guys consistently to really do much more than cycle in and out of that top group and hope for a magical season every once in a while.
Sorry for the rambling, most of this went straight from brain to keyboard, but I do feel a bit better.
