1. I know the first thought reflexively when you put up 550 yards and 33 points is to say the offense did its job, and the defense should take the blunt of the criticism, but I couldn't disagree more. This is the exact 1990s mindset that has Michigan stuck hitting its head as a program at 10-3. Michigan's offense blew the game by leaving way too many points on the field. We said coming in that the way for MSU to steal this game was to hit the big plays and Michigan to combust in the red zone, which is exactly what happened. When you consider that one of the UM scores was a long TD (and not really a drive), UM drove inside the MSU 40 on six times and scored one TD -- that's absolutely terrible. You need to score a TD at minimum on 2 out of 3 times when you're in scoring opportunity. If you think about it, if UM kicked no field goals and just went for it on fourth down every time, they'd almost certainly score another TD or two, which more than makes up for missing out on a couple FGs. Ask yourself this --if UM was down to OSU 30-14 in the third quarter, facing a fourth and four from the 29, is there any doubt that Jake Moody would be trying a 46 yard FG to cut the lead to 30-17?
2. Moreover, it can't be emphasized enough that after UM retook the lead in the fourth, when the stakes were highest, the defense absolutely made two huge sacks and stopped MSU on a 3 and out giving the ball right back to UM. How many times have we seen UM's defense just collapse? And after giving up two straight TDs, Michigan's defense rose to the occasion. We get the ball near midfield, and we hand it right back to MSU. Ballgame. You can't make mistakes like that. We were in position to end the game right there. A good offense does just that -- the MSU defense was just on the field for a long drive, there is no reason that UM shouldn't have salted it away. The fact we literally gave them the ball without anyone on MSU making the play is infuriating. That's the second time in 7 years that the biggest play of the game was a UM player just dropping a snap.
3. When we lost to MSU in 2015, I laughed and wrote it off as a fluke. And the dropped punt was no doubt a one in a million play. But it's just stunning how that one loss has set the culture for inability to close out big wins in a rivalry games when the opponent is good. Three times under Harbaugh. UM has had a 90+ winning percentage against a top 10 rival under Harbaugh (2015 MSU, 2016 OSU and 2022 MSU), and three times, we've incredibly found ways to lose. The 2015 game doesn't represent just a fluke to me now, it epitomizes UM's inability under Harbaugh to finish in a big game. And I can't help but wonder that if we had won that day, if that culture of not finishing never builds. It's getting to the point now where I believe that UM isn't going to win one of these games unless they do it convincingly. There is too much bad kharma in these close games.
4. As for MSU, Walker is really good. I give him a lot of credit. If I'm Tucker though, I'm probably high tailing it out of East Lansing at season's end. The model that worked so well this year -- mining the transfer portal -- probably isn't a sustainable way to build long-term. Further, Tucker, to his credit, really exploited the transfer market in a manner very similar to Fred Hoiberg did when he arrived at Iowa State a decade ago. The problem is the big boys will notice how Tucker got Walker, and you can rest assured, they will have analysts working every day to scout the transfer market to make sure those players end up at LSU or Alabama and not MSU (or even UM) going forward.
5. Turning the page, I think we can compete with OSU this year. I have zero confidence that we will win because we view field goals as a successful drive, and my sense is we will put together a gameplan to score 30 points as if that's enough. With that said, OSU has played two teams comparable to UM talent-wise and struggled both times. If OSU blows the door off UM, I think that would be very difficult to justify. 2018 was an embarrassment, but the 2019 OSU team basically did that to everyone it played so I wasn't shocked when Michigan got throttled. But unless UM figures out its red zone difficulties, this just feels like a game where UM plays its heart out, kills itself in the red zone, and loses something like 41-30.
6. As far as what I want to see going forward, there is no point to putting away the passing offense and just going super vanilla against Indiana or Maryland. Those gameplans won't work (and we don't try them) against the better teams, and everyone has seen our passing game, so let's work on getting the red zone kinks out next week.
7. Really think the PSU game is critical for the direction of the program. When you start 7-0, you cannot end 9-3 (and lose your 3 biggest games). Lose there, and barring a win over OSU, we'd basically have wiped away all of the momentum we generated by starting 7-0. Win there, and Michigan probably is in a New Year's Six Bowl game (against ND). You beat PSU and win that bowl game, and you get to 11 wins for the first time under Harbaugh, then you start to convince yourself that maybe things are going to be different. But you lose to PSU, and end up in another Outback or Citrus Bowl (while MSU, ND and OSU are in the NY6 or better), then who really believes that?
2. Moreover, it can't be emphasized enough that after UM retook the lead in the fourth, when the stakes were highest, the defense absolutely made two huge sacks and stopped MSU on a 3 and out giving the ball right back to UM. How many times have we seen UM's defense just collapse? And after giving up two straight TDs, Michigan's defense rose to the occasion. We get the ball near midfield, and we hand it right back to MSU. Ballgame. You can't make mistakes like that. We were in position to end the game right there. A good offense does just that -- the MSU defense was just on the field for a long drive, there is no reason that UM shouldn't have salted it away. The fact we literally gave them the ball without anyone on MSU making the play is infuriating. That's the second time in 7 years that the biggest play of the game was a UM player just dropping a snap.
3. When we lost to MSU in 2015, I laughed and wrote it off as a fluke. And the dropped punt was no doubt a one in a million play. But it's just stunning how that one loss has set the culture for inability to close out big wins in a rivalry games when the opponent is good. Three times under Harbaugh. UM has had a 90+ winning percentage against a top 10 rival under Harbaugh (2015 MSU, 2016 OSU and 2022 MSU), and three times, we've incredibly found ways to lose. The 2015 game doesn't represent just a fluke to me now, it epitomizes UM's inability under Harbaugh to finish in a big game. And I can't help but wonder that if we had won that day, if that culture of not finishing never builds. It's getting to the point now where I believe that UM isn't going to win one of these games unless they do it convincingly. There is too much bad kharma in these close games.
4. As for MSU, Walker is really good. I give him a lot of credit. If I'm Tucker though, I'm probably high tailing it out of East Lansing at season's end. The model that worked so well this year -- mining the transfer portal -- probably isn't a sustainable way to build long-term. Further, Tucker, to his credit, really exploited the transfer market in a manner very similar to Fred Hoiberg did when he arrived at Iowa State a decade ago. The problem is the big boys will notice how Tucker got Walker, and you can rest assured, they will have analysts working every day to scout the transfer market to make sure those players end up at LSU or Alabama and not MSU (or even UM) going forward.
5. Turning the page, I think we can compete with OSU this year. I have zero confidence that we will win because we view field goals as a successful drive, and my sense is we will put together a gameplan to score 30 points as if that's enough. With that said, OSU has played two teams comparable to UM talent-wise and struggled both times. If OSU blows the door off UM, I think that would be very difficult to justify. 2018 was an embarrassment, but the 2019 OSU team basically did that to everyone it played so I wasn't shocked when Michigan got throttled. But unless UM figures out its red zone difficulties, this just feels like a game where UM plays its heart out, kills itself in the red zone, and loses something like 41-30.
6. As far as what I want to see going forward, there is no point to putting away the passing offense and just going super vanilla against Indiana or Maryland. Those gameplans won't work (and we don't try them) against the better teams, and everyone has seen our passing game, so let's work on getting the red zone kinks out next week.
7. Really think the PSU game is critical for the direction of the program. When you start 7-0, you cannot end 9-3 (and lose your 3 biggest games). Lose there, and barring a win over OSU, we'd basically have wiped away all of the momentum we generated by starting 7-0. Win there, and Michigan probably is in a New Year's Six Bowl game (against ND). You beat PSU and win that bowl game, and you get to 11 wins for the first time under Harbaugh, then you start to convince yourself that maybe things are going to be different. But you lose to PSU, and end up in another Outback or Citrus Bowl (while MSU, ND and OSU are in the NY6 or better), then who really believes that?
