We're obviously "safe" at the moment. I consider being safe as the following -- if the NCAA tournament were picked today, would UM be sweating out inclusion or just worrying about seeding. If the tournament were today, there is no doubt Michigan would be in and it wouldn't be in the First 4.
As far as what gets us in, and what doesn't, here are my initial thoughts. I'm going to skip the scenarios at 13-5/14-4 because those are highly unlikely. Also, if we lose out prior to the B1G tournament, we're probably cooked barring a run to Sunday in the B1G tournament.
(1) UM goes 12-6. Obviously, it doesn't matter who UM beats but it will be in the safe field. However, 12 is the number which likely keeps us clear of the dreaded 8/9 game. That would mean we'd finish 21-9 with zero bad losses, and 4 or 5 top RPI 50 wins prior to the B1G tournament. We'd likely have an opportunity to play our way up to a 5 or 6 seed if we could reach the B1G final. This would realistically require UM to beat NW (duh), Iowa at home in the finale (doable especially if the Hawks aren't playing for the B1G title) and steal one road game.
(2) UM goes 11-7. Probably the most likely scenario. I can't see any scenario where UM is on the bubble with two more wins, especially if we beat Northwestern. Wait...why Northwestern? Because that ensures that UM basically went through the whole season without any semblance of a "bad" loss. 11-7, 21-10 probably puts us somewhere in the 7 to 10 seed range. There are some arguments for why a 10 seed is better (easier 2nd round opponent if you survive the first), but the 1 seeds aren't particularly strong this year, so its not the worst year to be a 1 seed.
(3) UM finished 10-8, but reached the B1G semifinals. This is similar to 11-7 because it would mean we likely beat Iowa in the B1G quarterfinals. We'd have played our way off the bubble in this scenario. We could be more of a 10 seed than an 8/9, but we'd be safe.
(3) UM wins one more game, and one more in the B1G tournament. This is where it gets dicey. Gun to my head, I would guess we slip in if we beat Northwestern and say Nebraska in round 1 in indianapolis. Our best argument is we lost to zero bad teams. But, we're probably First 4 material given that finish (4-7 down the stretch with one good win), and if things break wrong during Championship week, we could easily find ourselves on the outside looking in.
(4) UM wins one more game and loses on Thursday in the B1G tournament. Less than 50/50 we get in under this scenario. That would be a 3-7 finish with at least one terrible loss as our last impression.
One last thought, the Northwestern home game is in some ways the most important. Our resume is based a lot on beating all the bad teams. One home loss to a borderline top 100 team would send the RPI plummeting.
As far as what gets us in, and what doesn't, here are my initial thoughts. I'm going to skip the scenarios at 13-5/14-4 because those are highly unlikely. Also, if we lose out prior to the B1G tournament, we're probably cooked barring a run to Sunday in the B1G tournament.
(1) UM goes 12-6. Obviously, it doesn't matter who UM beats but it will be in the safe field. However, 12 is the number which likely keeps us clear of the dreaded 8/9 game. That would mean we'd finish 21-9 with zero bad losses, and 4 or 5 top RPI 50 wins prior to the B1G tournament. We'd likely have an opportunity to play our way up to a 5 or 6 seed if we could reach the B1G final. This would realistically require UM to beat NW (duh), Iowa at home in the finale (doable especially if the Hawks aren't playing for the B1G title) and steal one road game.
(2) UM goes 11-7. Probably the most likely scenario. I can't see any scenario where UM is on the bubble with two more wins, especially if we beat Northwestern. Wait...why Northwestern? Because that ensures that UM basically went through the whole season without any semblance of a "bad" loss. 11-7, 21-10 probably puts us somewhere in the 7 to 10 seed range. There are some arguments for why a 10 seed is better (easier 2nd round opponent if you survive the first), but the 1 seeds aren't particularly strong this year, so its not the worst year to be a 1 seed.
(3) UM finished 10-8, but reached the B1G semifinals. This is similar to 11-7 because it would mean we likely beat Iowa in the B1G quarterfinals. We'd have played our way off the bubble in this scenario. We could be more of a 10 seed than an 8/9, but we'd be safe.
(3) UM wins one more game, and one more in the B1G tournament. This is where it gets dicey. Gun to my head, I would guess we slip in if we beat Northwestern and say Nebraska in round 1 in indianapolis. Our best argument is we lost to zero bad teams. But, we're probably First 4 material given that finish (4-7 down the stretch with one good win), and if things break wrong during Championship week, we could easily find ourselves on the outside looking in.
(4) UM wins one more game and loses on Thursday in the B1G tournament. Less than 50/50 we get in under this scenario. That would be a 3-7 finish with at least one terrible loss as our last impression.
One last thought, the Northwestern home game is in some ways the most important. Our resume is based a lot on beating all the bad teams. One home loss to a borderline top 100 team would send the RPI plummeting.
