1. I don't think anyone should press the panic button after one bad half in eight. We've seen this happen before to good Michigan teams. Close wins over bad Utah and San Diego State wins in the mid 2000s come to mind, as do the games against Minnesota and Indiana in Harbaugh's first season where we frankly were much closer to losing and needed some breaks to pull those games out. Heck, if we just look back six months ago before Michigan basketball went 23-4 and won a B1G title, it went to OT with a terrible Oakland basketball team in game two. That wasn't a harbinger of a lost season but rather a sign of a team that lost focus for a night. Saturday looked to me like a team that took its foot off the gas way prematurely, and learned that you can't just turn it on at a moment's notice.
2. I saw some comparisons to 2019 Army but that's a stretch. Michigan never had its win expectancy dip below 78% Saturday. In 2019, Army had the game all but won on several occasions.
3. In terms of what happened Saturday, I think there are a couple factors. I'd divide the blame as 50% on the coaching staff, 40% on the quarterback and 10% on the fans. Michigan coached like the game was already over. Running a draw on 3rd and 12 has been discussed. Settling for a chip shot field goal when it clearly had time to run another play (it doesn't take 5 seconds to run a quick pass play). I thought the decision to punt on 4th and 1 right after the Rutgers long TD drive was terrible--if you're a power football team, you go there. That was a key point in the game and the Michigan defense needed the offense to stay on the field. But McNamara also made some key errors--he missed a wide open Schoonmaker which may have iced the game before the half. There were a couple receivers wide open in the second half that he missed badly. I'm not sure how much was attributable to the hit he took before the half but the dramatic discrepancy in his performance before and after the hit suggests to me that it was a factor. If that's the case and happens again (and Wisconsin is a dirty program that has taken cheap shots at UM qbs over the years), then Michigan needs to have a gameplan for McCarthy. Lastly, the fans were terrible after halftime and basically contributed to this perception that the game was over.
4. As far as Rutgers, it is clearly a much improved program. I'd expect them to finish 6-6 or maybe 7-5. I'll give Schiano credit for keeping his team in the game when a lot of people thought it was over. RU's next three games at OSU, MSU and Wisconsin. I think they'll get one of them (MSU most likely).
5. I don't think it's exaggerating to say Saturday is the biggest game for the program since the 2018 Ohio State game. We all know what Wisconsin did to Michigan the last two times. But since that 2020 game, Wisconsin is 3-5, with three of those losses by ten points or more. It has scored 20 or less points in 6 of those games. If Wisconsin was rolling, this would not be a must win--a competitive loss on the road to a top 10 team on the road would be viewed as progress, frustrating, but progress. In fact if you look at the five losses that Michigan has had in Madison since it's last win, here are the win totals for those Badger teams. 2005-10 wins, 2007-9 wins, 2009-10 wins, 2017-13 wins and 2019-10 wins. This Wisconsin team is by far the worst of those five and will be fortunate to win 7. If Michigan goes into Madison and can't beat this Badger team, especially coming off the second half performance last week, any momentum this program had garnered through the first four weeks will be gone. If Michigan can't beat thisWisconsin team in year seven under Harbaugh after being embarrassed the last two seasons, haven't we seen enough?
6. I've thought this was a 9-3/10-2 team and still believe that. On Saturday, I expect to see a low scoring defensive game, but ultimately I side with Michigan because (1) it is less likely to make a critical mistake given the turnover disparity between the teams, and (2) it has the gamebreaker at running back (these are the worst Badger backs that I can remember. I think the pressure has to be on Michigan and McDonald to draw up a defense that will force Mertz to make some difficult throws. A good defensive performance Saturday has to involve at least 1-2 turnovers when you're playing a quarterback who has turned it over against everyone for 5-6 games now.
2. I saw some comparisons to 2019 Army but that's a stretch. Michigan never had its win expectancy dip below 78% Saturday. In 2019, Army had the game all but won on several occasions.
3. In terms of what happened Saturday, I think there are a couple factors. I'd divide the blame as 50% on the coaching staff, 40% on the quarterback and 10% on the fans. Michigan coached like the game was already over. Running a draw on 3rd and 12 has been discussed. Settling for a chip shot field goal when it clearly had time to run another play (it doesn't take 5 seconds to run a quick pass play). I thought the decision to punt on 4th and 1 right after the Rutgers long TD drive was terrible--if you're a power football team, you go there. That was a key point in the game and the Michigan defense needed the offense to stay on the field. But McNamara also made some key errors--he missed a wide open Schoonmaker which may have iced the game before the half. There were a couple receivers wide open in the second half that he missed badly. I'm not sure how much was attributable to the hit he took before the half but the dramatic discrepancy in his performance before and after the hit suggests to me that it was a factor. If that's the case and happens again (and Wisconsin is a dirty program that has taken cheap shots at UM qbs over the years), then Michigan needs to have a gameplan for McCarthy. Lastly, the fans were terrible after halftime and basically contributed to this perception that the game was over.
4. As far as Rutgers, it is clearly a much improved program. I'd expect them to finish 6-6 or maybe 7-5. I'll give Schiano credit for keeping his team in the game when a lot of people thought it was over. RU's next three games at OSU, MSU and Wisconsin. I think they'll get one of them (MSU most likely).
5. I don't think it's exaggerating to say Saturday is the biggest game for the program since the 2018 Ohio State game. We all know what Wisconsin did to Michigan the last two times. But since that 2020 game, Wisconsin is 3-5, with three of those losses by ten points or more. It has scored 20 or less points in 6 of those games. If Wisconsin was rolling, this would not be a must win--a competitive loss on the road to a top 10 team on the road would be viewed as progress, frustrating, but progress. In fact if you look at the five losses that Michigan has had in Madison since it's last win, here are the win totals for those Badger teams. 2005-10 wins, 2007-9 wins, 2009-10 wins, 2017-13 wins and 2019-10 wins. This Wisconsin team is by far the worst of those five and will be fortunate to win 7. If Michigan goes into Madison and can't beat this Badger team, especially coming off the second half performance last week, any momentum this program had garnered through the first four weeks will be gone. If Michigan can't beat thisWisconsin team in year seven under Harbaugh after being embarrassed the last two seasons, haven't we seen enough?
6. I've thought this was a 9-3/10-2 team and still believe that. On Saturday, I expect to see a low scoring defensive game, but ultimately I side with Michigan because (1) it is less likely to make a critical mistake given the turnover disparity between the teams, and (2) it has the gamebreaker at running back (these are the worst Badger backs that I can remember. I think the pressure has to be on Michigan and McDonald to draw up a defense that will force Mertz to make some difficult throws. A good defensive performance Saturday has to involve at least 1-2 turnovers when you're playing a quarterback who has turned it over against everyone for 5-6 games now.
